The causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in Africa

ABSTRACT

Previous empirical studies on the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth are not instructive given their failure to unearth the causality trend across the different time periods. Using a more recently developed and robust indicator of financial development, we revisit the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth within the framework of a frequency-domain spectral causality technique which allows the causality to vary across time. Using data from 47 African countries over the period 1980–2016, our findings largely suggest that, even though there is some evidence of demand-following, supply-leading and feedback hypotheses, for most part, we find strong support of neutrality hypothesis. Thus, financial development and economic growth at most frequency levels evolve independently. We infer that caution must be exercised in making general conclusions about the causal nexus between financial development and economic growth.     

Farmers' Access to Markets: The Case of Cotton in Pakistan

Using a cross‐sectional primary dataset collected from a survey of 325 farmers in the seven highest cotton‐producing districts of Punjab Province of Pakistan, the present paper examines cotton farmers' market participation decisions, and the factors driving participation, as well as the impact of participation on net returns. Tobit and censored least absolute deviation models were used to estimate the participation of farmers in markets, and the Heckman two‐stage approach and the propensity score matching method were applied to analyze the impact of participation on net returns, taking into account potential selection bias. The empirical results revealed that households with more education, wealth, and better transport facilities are more likely to participate in the markets. As the distance to market increases, households prefer to sell at the farm gate rather than the market. The results also indicated that households that sell their goods at the market obtain higher net returns than those selling at the farm gate.     

The Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton and Poverty Reduction in Pakistan

This article employs a propensity score‐matching approach to examine the direct effects of adoption of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton on yields, pesticide demand, household income and poverty, using cross‐sectional data from a survey of farmers in the Punjab province of Pakistan. Generally, the findings reveal that adoption of the new technology exerts a positive and significant impact on cotton yields, household income and poverty reduction, and a negative effect on the use of pesticides. The positive and significant impact of the technology on yields and household income is consistent with the potential role of new agricultural technology in directly reducing rural poverty through increased farm household income.     

Agricultural Economics at 50: Scholarship of the global agricultural economics community

Last year, Agricultural Economics reached its 50th volume, after 34 years. In this article, we reflect on the evolution of the journal during this period. We describe the evolving editorial structure of the journal and the composition of the editorial board from only editorial advisory board to both associate editors and editorial advisory board. We also employ bibliometric analysis to showcase the evolution of the average number of pages per article, number of articles per volume, authorship patterns that reflect the steady rise in collaborative research, article content, research coverage, as well as the journal's impact as chronicled by its citations over the period under consideration. We conclude by briefly defining some goals and providing perspectives for the future of the journal in the face of the evolving publishing landscape. We found that although articles published in the journal remain predominantly on agricultural topics, significant changes in topical coverage has occurred in the last two decades. While 20 years ago, only very few articles were classified under environmental issues and mathematical and quantitative methods, the share of articles published in these areas increased by 19% and 45%, respectively, over this time period.     

Exports and Economic Growth: Cointegration and Causality Evidence for Côte d’Ivoire

This paper examines the short‐ and long‐run relationship between economic growth, exports, real investments and labour force for Cô d’Ivoire for the period 1961–97, using cointegration and error correction techniques. The results indicate that there is one long‐run equilibrium relationship among the four variables, and the causal relationship flows from the growth in exports to the growth in GDP both in the short and long run, providing support for the export‐led growth hypothesis. This finding suggests that the recent trade reforms aimed at promoting domestic investment and restoring international competitiveness to expand and diversify exports have the potential of increasing economic growth in the future. L’article examine la relation à court et à long terme entre croissance économique, exportations, investissements réels et population active en Cô d’Ivoire pour la période 1961–97, au moyen de la technique de co‐intégration et de correction des erreurs. L’article conclut qu’il existe une relation déquilibre à long terme entre les quatre variables et que la relation de causalité lie la croissance des exportations à la croissance du PIB tant à court qu’à long terme, ce qui étaye l’hypothèse d’une croissance soutenue par les exportations. Ces conclusions laissent penser que les réformes commerciales récemment introduites pour promouvoir les investissements intérieurs et restaurer la compétitivité internationale, afin d’étendre et de diversifier les exportations, ont le potentiel de renforcer la croissance économique dans l’avenir.     

Household Food Demand Analysis in India

Price and expenditure elasticities and estimates of the effect of household demographic variables on Indian food items are estimated using a recent household survey data in rural and urban areas. Using a linear approximate almost ideal demand system (LA/AIDS), the results indicate that for commodity groups (milk and milk products; cereals and pulses; edible oils; meat, fish, and eggs; vegetables and fruits; other foods) demand is elastic only for milk and milk products in both rural and urban areas of India. The impact of demographic variables such as region, household size, education level of household head, and seasonality, was generally significant.     

Valuing Traits of Indigenous Cows in Central Ethiopia

This research aimed at identifying and estimating the relative weight assigned to the preferred traits of indigenous cow population in the most dominant crop–livestock mixed production system in Central Ethiopia. A choice experiment approach was employed to elicit the preferences and a random parameters logit model was used to estimate the relative importance of the preferred attributes of indigenous cows. The results show that fertility, disease resistance and calf vigour traits are at least as important as milk. The location the cows are brought from is also an important attribute for buyers. Results from the simulation on the influence of changes in attribute levels showed that fertility and disease resistance affect preferences more than other traits. The findings suggest that the smallholder community in this part of Ethiopia depends on semi‐subsistence agriculture and so livestock development interventions should focus on a multitude of reproductive and adaptive traits that stabilise the herd structure rather than focusing on traits that are only important for commercial purposes.     

Effect of financial development on international trade in Africa: Does measure of finance matter?

Although improving international trade on the back of financial sector development is one of the preoccupations of countries in Africa, empirical literature on financial development-trade nexus has not been rigorous in examining how finance shapes trade. In this study, we examine the effect of financial development on international trade in Africa relying on data for 46 countries over the period 1980–2015. Results from our system generalized method of moments reveal differential effects of finance on trade. In particular, we notice that, private credit does not promote trade while domestic credit positively affects trade. These effects are robust to measures of trade. Thus, improving the level of private (domestic) credit dampens (amplifies) exports and trade openness. However, we also find a U-shaped relationship between private credit and trade measures suggesting that financial sector development may be detrimental (helpful) to trade for economies with low (high) level of private credit.     

The Diffusion of New Agricultural Technologies: The Case of Crossbred-Cow Technology in Tanzania

The recent literature on agricultural technology adoption shows that diffusion of new technologies varies significantly across space and time. Furthermore, puzzles exist about why some seemingly profitable technologies are not adopted, especially in livestock production. We employ a hazard or duration function to explain diffusion of crossbred-cow technology in a unique sample of Tanzania farmers. A farmer's adoption of crossbred technology depends positively on the proximity of his farm to other users, on his schooling, and on his access to credit and contact with extension agents.