Building logistic models by means of a non parametric goodness of fit test: a case study

A sequence of logistic models is fitted to data from a Dutch follow-up study on preterm infants (POPS). To examine the adequacy of the model, a recently developed non parametric method to check goodness of fit is applied (le Cessie and Van Houwelingen (1991)). This method uses a test statistic based upon kernel regression methods.
In this paper the problem of choosing a "best" bandwidth, corresponding to the greatest power of the test statistic, is avoided by computing the test statistic for a range of different bandwidths. Testing is then based upon the asymptotic distribution of the maximum of the test statistics.
The testing method is used as a goodness of fit criterion, and the contribution of each individual observation to the test statistic is used as a diagnostic tool to localize deviations of the model, and to determine directions in which the model can be improved.     

The Influence of High-/Low-Context Culture on Perceived Ad Complexity and Liking

ABSTRACT

According to Hall's context theory, people from different cultures may react differently to complex messages. The current study is the first empirical examination of context theory's role on message comprehension and appreciation. In a comparative survey-based study (N = 289), Belgian and Dutch participants judged 12 complex product advertisements with visual metaphors. As expected by context theory, perceived complexity was lower for Belgian (a higher-context culture) than for Dutch participants (a lower-context culture), and participants' personal context culture score fully accounted for this difference. Similarly, ad liking was higher for Belgian than for Dutch participants, and again, this difference was explained by context score.     

Multivariate Lévy processes with dependent jump intensity

In this work we propose a new and general approach to build dependence in multivariate Lévy processes. We fully characterize a multivariate Lévy process whose margins are able to approximate any Lévy type. Dependence is generated by one or more common sources of jump intensity separately in jumps of any sign and size and a parsimonious method to determine the intensities of these common factors is proposed. Such a new approach allows the calibration of any smooth transition between independence and a large amount of linear dependence and provides greater flexibility in calibrating nonlinear dependence than in other comparable Lévy models in the literature. The model is analytically tractable and a straightforward multivariate simulation procedure is available. An empirical analysis shows an accurate multivariate fit of stock returns in terms of linear and nonlinear dependence. A numerical illustration of multi-asset option pricing emphasizes the importance of the proposed new approach for modeling dependence.     

A Cross-national Investigation of the Satisfaction and Loyalty Linkage for Mobile Telecommunications Services across Eight Countries

Improving customer satisfaction has become a strategic imperative for managers and researchers given the benefits of developing customer loyalty for long-term financial success. Creating these linkages becomes even more important in the context of mobile telecommunications due to the ubiquitous nature of mobile phones and the potential this creates to engage in interactive marketing for firms. Further, with increased global penetration of mobile telecommunications, examining cross-national differences in consumer attitudes and behaviors has become critical. Most studies that examine customer satisfaction and loyalty linkages however have traditionally focused on single countries and/or single industries. This study extends the literature by testing the moderating impact of cultural variables on the impact of satisfaction on loyalty intentions using data from 3,393 mobile telecommunications customers in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Spain, UK, and USA. Our findings reveal that the impact of satisfaction on loyalty in the mobile telecommunications context depends on cultural differences. The results demonstrate non-linear threshold effects where managers operating in countries characterized by self-expressionist values will have an easier time creating satisfaction and loyalty with mobile customers compared to those operating in cultures dominated by high survivalist values.     

Distribution of responsibility in socio-technical networks: the Promest case

The aim of the present paper is to show how (informal) responsibility issues within the context of a network are essentially related with the way networks are organised in order to pursue their objectives. We conceive of organisations as having at least three relevant dimensions: power, coordination and control. The case of the Dutch manure processing factory Promest is analysed in terms of these three dimensions. The analysis provides an illustration of how the dimensions enable actors to discharge their responsibilities, thereby offering insight in responsibility issues within a group of actors and contributing to the prevention of the problem of many hands.     

Commercialisation de la microfinance: impact sur les plus pauvres en Afrique

Nous cherchons à déterminer si la commercialisation des IMF est associée à la « dérive de mission ». Plus précisément, en considérant que la commercialisation se caractérise par la viabilité, la concurrence, et la réglementation des IMF, nous évaluons son effet sur la taille moyenne des prêts accordés. L'étude empirique est basée sur les données en panel de 96 IMF ?uvrant dans 22 pays africains durant la période 2005–2008, et aussi sur la méthode des MCO afin d'étudier l'impact de la commercialisation des IMF sur la taille moyenne des prêts par groupe de clientèle servie. Les résultats indiquent que les IMF africaines ont une plus faible portée sociale lorsqu'elles sont autonomes financièrement, mais la réglementation et la concurrence peuvent favoriser l'inclusion des plus pauvres. Nous constatons également que l'augmentation de la taille moyenne des prêts est associée à des niveaux inférieurs de remboursement du prêt par les plus pauvres, à la baisse de pourcentage de femmes emprunteuses, au pourcentage de population rurale et à la forme juridique d'ONG, et aussi à la prédominance du crédit individuel. Ceci caractérise la dérive de mission.     

Framing social marketing as a system of interaction: A neo-institutional approach to alcohol abstinence

Abstract

We employ Giddens’ structuration theory to gain insights into the interaction between upstream/midstream and downstream social marketing perspectives. This is conducted through thirteen phenomenological interviews with informants who stand outside of the practice of alcohol consumption through their voluntary engagement in one month of sobriety. Our study identifies the ‘modalities’ located at the intersection between individual actions and the institutions of alcohol. By identifying these ‘modalities’, we conceptualise social marketing in interaction, which incorporates the institutional orders of domination, signification and legitimation, and the individual actions of power, communication and sanction. Specific domains of interventions are identified, namely marketplace offerings and promotional techniques, social grouping and positional status and rituals and traditions, through which social marketers can enact social change.     

How to speed up the quantization tree algorithm with an application to swing options

In this paper, we suggest several improvements to the numerical implementation of the quantization method for stochastic control problems in order to obtain fast and accurate premium estimations. This technique is applied to derivative pricing in energy markets. Several ways of modeling energy derivatives are described and numerical examples including parallel execution on multi-processor devices are presented to illustrate the accuracy of these methods and their execution times.     

Online advertising and privacy

An online platform auctions an advertising slot. Several advertisers compete in the auction, and consumers differ in their preferences. Prior to the auction, the platform decides whether to allow advertisers to access information about consumers (disclosure) or not (privacy). Disclosure improves the match between advertisers and consumers but increases product prices, even without price‐discrimination. We provide conditions under which disclosure or privacy is privately and/or socially optimal. When advertisers compete on the downstream market, disclosure can lead to an increase or a decrease in product prices depending on the nature of the information.