Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility

Our objective is to identify the trading strategy that would allow an investor to take advantage of "excessive" stock price volatility and "sentiment" fluctuations. We construct a general equilibrium "difference-of-opinion" model of sentiment in which there are two classes of agents, one of which is overconfident about a public signal, while still optimizing intertemporally. Overconfident investors overreact to the signal and introduce an additional risk factor causing stock prices to be excessively volatile. Consequently, rational investors choose a conservative portfolio; moreover, this portfolio depends not just on the current price divergence but also on their prediction about future sentiment and the speed of price convergence.     

An Economic Analysis of Licensure and Public Policy: Evidence from the Social Work Case

Occupational licensure is commonly accepted as a means of protecting consumers by ensuring minimum levels of professional competence. This study analyzes the rationale for licensure in terms of consumer information and consumer choice, applying the analysis to the proposal to license social workers in Tennessee. The analysis makes it possible to separate the numerous issues involved in the licensure question, identifying the probable impact of the proposed measures in terms of a clearer identification of consumers' interests. It is shown that the need for licensure is tied to the manner in which services are provided. In the social work case this means that while the positions of social workers would be enhanced, licensure would offer their client-consumers little protection which they do not already enjoy.     

Comparative Advantage and Heterogeneous Firms

This paper examines how country, industry, and firm characteristics interact in general equilibrium to determine nations' responses to trade liberalization. When firms possess heterogeneous productivity, countries differ in relative factor abundance, and industries vary in factor intensity, falling trade costs induce reallocations of resources both within and across industries and countries. These reallocations generate substantial job turnover in all sectors, spur relatively more creative destruction in comparative advantage industries than in comparative disadvantage industries, and magnify ex ante comparative advantage to create additional welfare gains from trade. The improvements in aggregate productivity as countries liberalize dampen and can even reverse the real-wage losses of scarce factors.     

The Impact of Item Price Removal in Scanner Supermarkets: A Survey Study of Los Angeles Shoppers

The practice of removing item prices in scanner-equipped grocery stores has raised an important public policy issue relating to the ability of individual consumers to engage in effective shopping with less available price information at the point of purchase. This study investigated the likely impact of item price removal in scanner-equipped grocery stores as a function of consumers' use of price information, general consumer predispositions, and consumers' experience with scanner technology. Particular emphasis was placed on the likely effects of item price removal on disadvantaged consumers. The implications of the study for public policy are discussed.     

Cities as the Industrial Districts of Housebuilding

In North America the housebuilding industry is ubiquitous and locally autonomous. In Ontario during the 1990s, 81% of urban single‐family homes were erected by locally based builders, a proportion that varied with urban isolation. Urban areas may be regarded as the industrial districts of home builders: numerous small, specialized firms interact frequently within a rich, embedded market network; subcontracting is the norm; networks and firm boundaries are fluid. The theory of industrial districts offers a useful vocabulary for analysing the neglected building industry. Analytically, the building industry offers unequalled opportunities to explore the dynamics of industrial districts, and how economic globalization meets local limits.     

The Dynamic Properties of Financial‐Market Equilibrium with Trading Fees

We incorporate trading fees into a dynamic, multiagent general‐equilibrium model in which traders optimally decide when to trade. For that purpose, we propose an innovative algorithm that synchronizes the traders. Securities prices are not so much affected by the payment of the fees itself, but rather by the trade‐off that the traders face between smoothing consumption and smoothing holdings. In calibrated examples, the interest rate and welfare decline with trading fees, while risk premia and volatilities increase. Liquidity risk and expected liquidity are priced, leading to deviations from the consumption‐CAPM. With trading fees, capital is slow‐moving, generating slow price reversal.     

The Theory of Capital Structure

This paper surveys capital structure theories based on agency costs, asymmetric information, product/input market interactions, and corporate control considerations (but excluding tax-based theories). For each type of model, a brief overview of the papers surveyed and their relation to each other is provided. The central papers are described in some detail, and their results are summarized and followed by a discussion of related extensions. Each section concludes with a summary of the main implications of the models surveyed in the section. Finally, these results are collected and compared to the available evidence. Suggestions for future research are provided.     

Why Did NASDAQ Market Makers Stop Avoiding Odd-Eighth Quotes?

On May 26 and 27, 1994 several national newspapers reported the findings of Christie and Schultz (1994) who cannot reject the hypothesis that market makers of active NASDAQ stocks implicitly colluded to maintain spreads of at least $0.25 by avoiding odd-eighth quotes. On May 27, dealers in Amgen, Cisco Systems, and Microsoft sharply increased their use of odd-eighth quotes, and mean inside and effective spreads fell nearly 50 percent. This pattern was repeated for Apple Computer the following trading day. Using individual dealer quotes for Apple and Microsoft, we find that virtually all dealers moved in unison to adopt odd-eighth quotes.