A medium-N approach to macroeconomic forecasting

This paper considers methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series in a framework where the number of predictors, N, is too large to apply traditional regression models but not sufficiently large to resort to statistical inference based on double asymptotics. Our interest is motivated by a body of empirical research suggesting that popular data-rich prediction methods perform best when N ranges from 20 to 40. In order to accomplish our goal, we resort to partial least squares and principal component regression to consistently estimate a stable dynamic regression model with many predictors as only the number of observations, T, diverges. We show both by simulations and empirical applications that the considered methods, especially partial least squares, compare well to models that are widely used in macroeconomic forecasting.     

Work,Care and Gender during the COVID-19 Crisis*

We explore the effects of the COVID-19 crisis and the associated restrictions to economic activity on paid and unpaid work for men and women in the United Kingdom. Using data from the COVID-19 supplement of Understanding Society, we find evidence that labour market outcomes of men and women were roughly equally affected at the extensive margin, as measured by the incidence of job loss or furloughing. But, if anything, women suffered smaller losses at the intensive margin, experiencing slightly smaller changes in hours and earnings. Within the household, women provided on average a larger share of increased childcare needs, but in an important share of households fathers became the primary childcare providers. These distributional consequences of the pandemic may be important to understand its inequality legacy over the longer term.     

Keynes at the periphery: Currency hierarchy and challenges for economic policy in emerging economies

While the post Keynesian literature offers a rather clear concept for growth-oriented policies, it is necessary to adapt them for peripheral emerging economies. We base our analysis of an appropriate Keynesian policy mix for these countries on the concept of currency hierarchy, where the currencies of peripheral emerging economies have a lower liquidity premium than the currencies of advanced economies. The international asymmetry related to the currency hierarchy, amplified by financial globalization, imposes major constraints to the adoption of Keynesian policies for these economies. Under these conditions, we argue that domestic economic policy coordination should lay a major focus on a low policy rate and, especially, a competitive exchange rate for obtaining, at least, a balanced current account, in order to prevent capital flows boom-bust-cycles with subsequent financial crises. We conclude that it is a rather ambitious and long-term goal to climb up the currency hierarchy, especially under the current condition of financial globalization.     

Unconscious Processes of Organizing: Intergroup Conflict in Mental Health Care

A critical but overlooked issue in Weick’s seminal work, The Social Psychology of Organizing (1969/1979), concerns ‘the heat’ of organizing processes, namely, the underground emotional processes underpinning the organizing of conflictual work relationships. We present a qualitative case study of psychiatric agencies mandated by public policy to collaborate but instead engaged in persistent conflict despite its deleterious effects on their working relationship and on the wellbeing of the clients they intended to serve. To explain these conflictual features of organizing, we integrate Weick’s organizing theory with systems psychodynamics to deepen the understanding of emotions in organizing, specifically the motivational forces underpinning sensemaking and actions between interacting psychiatric agencies. This integration of theories reveals a critical feature of the relationship between the conscious and unconscious organizing processes: When a threat is involved, sensemaking and action are overtaken by social defences, resulting in dysfunctional organizing of the primary task. Drawing on these findings, we enrich Weick’s seminal work by developing a model that portrays organizing as the ritualized interaction of emotions, sensemaking and behavioural responses.     

The Phillips curve under state-dependent pricing

We derive a Phillips curve equation from the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with state-dependent pricing developed by Dotsey et al. [1999. State-dependent pricing and the general equilibrium dynamics of money and output. Quarterly Journal of Economics 114, 655-690]. This state-dependent Phillips curve encompasses the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) based on Calvo-type price setting as a special case. We analyze the effect of the state-dependent terms (that is, the variations in the distributions of price vintages) on inflation persistence, and we examine whether the hybrid NKPC (that is, the NKPC extended by a lagged inflation term) can adequately describe inflation dynamics generated in a calibrated state-dependent pricing economy.     

Wither Qualitative/Quantitative?: Grounds for Methodological Convergence

The qualitative quantitative issue has been given attention in sociological scholarship for decades. Upon theoretical examination of the basis of separations, the commonly used criteria of subjectivity versus objectivity, systematization, quantification and generalization, do not separate. This suggests that the impetus for the qualitative/quantitative issue is more political than intellectual owing to several factors in the practice of sociology: diverse intellectual heritages, the domination of quantitative sociologists in teaching methods and writing methods text books, the proliferation of computer technology in the past 20 years, and separation of theory and method. Advancing sociological methods means transcending the quantitative/qualitative issue and moving on to consider issues like science, validity, causality and multiverse.     

Lone Mothers: What is to be done?

This Dialogue presents the views of four authors, from the US, the UK, and Norway, on the best policies to help lone mothers. Lone mothers face an inevitable dilemma in allocating their time between earning income and caring for their children. The low-earning capacity of women in an unequal labor market exacerbates the problem, causing material hardship for many lone mothers and their families. The policy solutions proposed lie along a spectrum, ranging from those that seek to enable all lone mothers to take employment to those that aim to let mothers choose whether to take employment or care for their children themselves. Other policies discussed concern ways to value and support caregiving, improve the low-wage labor market for women, and provide a set of income supports that would both boost income and provide time to care for children.     

Macroeconomic uncertainty indices for the Euro Area and its individual member countries

This paper introduces the Rossi and Sekhposyan (Am Econ Rev 105(5): 650–655, 2015) uncertainty index for the Euro Area and its member countries. The index captures how unexpected a forecast error associated with a realization of a macroeconomic variable is relative to the unconditional distribution of forecast errors. Furthermore, it can differentiate between upside and downside uncertainty, which could be relevant for addressing a variety of economic questions. The index is particularly useful since it can be constructed for any country/variable for which point forecasts and realizations are available. We show the usefulness of the index in studying the heterogeneity of uncertainty across Euro Area countries as well as the spillover effects via a network approach.