Constructing Commercial Indices: A Semiparametric Adaptive Estimator Approach

Constant-quality commercial indices generated by ordinary least squares may suffer an efficiency loss due to leptokurtosis caused by outliers in transactions data. When the subsequent nonnormality occurs, substantial improvement in index precision is obtained by estimating the hedonic model using a semiparametric adaptive estimator technique. When this method was applied to 1,846 office transactions that occurred in the Phoenix metropolitan area from January 1997 through June 2004, a substantial standard error reduction of approximately 9% was realized relative to ordinary least squares estimates. The difference in average returns between the semiparametric method and ordinary least squares was about 0.25% in each period, which represents a substantial increase in commercial property index precision. JEL Classification C4 R0     

‘Someone else’s blood’: directed blood donation for neonatal transfusion and parental perceptions of risk

In Canada, parents can give blood exclusively for their child’s transfusion, a process known as directed donation. This qualitative study aimed to understand parents’ perceptions in seeking to provide blood for their newborn. Ten parents whose preterm children were cared for in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit of one Canadian hospital were interviewed. The beliefs and experiences of parents with regard to directed donation were analyzed with reference to their understanding of the risks and benefits of this form of transfusion. Interview data revealed that parents had little knowledge or understanding of the medical benefits and risks of directed donation and based their decision to seek this type of transfusion largely on emotional grounds. In addition, despite their preference for directed donation, most infants whose parents were interviewed in this study, for practical reasons could not be given this type of transfusion. This may have magnified risk perceptions of non‐directed transfusions. Parents need to be better informed about the medical risks and benefits of directed donation and the actual likelihood that their child will be able to receive this type of transfusion.     

Policy, technology, and management strategies for achieving sustainable agricultural intensification

Considerable agreement exists among researchers, development practitioners, and policymakers regarding the goals of sustainable agricultural intensification (SAI). They include: achieving agricultural productivity growth, household food security, and improved rural livelihoods and employment, while simultaneously mitigating environmental degradation. However, the multiplicity of these objectives, as well as the choice of approaches to achieving them and the site‐ and context‐specificity of specific technological and institutional interventions, assures that the research and policy challenges to achieving SAI will remain considerable. This article summarizes the contributions of the articles in this Special Issue in four areas of the literature. First, labor market constraints, the labor intensity of specific agricultural technologies and practices, and labor's substitutability, or complementarity, with other inputs are shown to widely influence their viability and related input efficiencies. Second, the articles identify specific tradeoffs and synergistic relationships that arise in the attainment of these multiple goals stemming from technologies, management practices, and policies introduced under specific agroclimatic, market, and institutional conditions. Third, these papers contribute to the literature on agricultural technology adoption by furnishing additional empirical evidence on the determinants and effects of investment behavior and adoption of specific technologies and management practices. Finally, the articles in this Special Issue emphasize that there is no single policy nor technological, management, or institutional innovation that unambiguously promotes SAI. Preferred policies must be contextualized and sensitive to initial biophysical, market, and institutional conditions.     

Small business and online training in Australia: who is willing to participate?

This paper investigates small business employers' willingness to participate in online training based on survey of 716 Western Australian small business employers. The results indicate that those small business employers with aspirations towards business growth and who are existing Internet users are more likely to participate in online training than those without growth aspirations.     

A first look at the empirical relation between spot and futures electricity prices in the United States

In this article we investigate the statistical properties of wholesale electricity spot and futures prices traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange for delivery at the California–Oregon Border. Using daily data for the years 1998 and 1999, we find that many of the characteristics of the electricity market can be viewed to be broadly consistent with efficient markets. The futures risk premium for 6‐month futures contracts is estimated to be 0.1328% per day or about 4% per month. Using a GARCH specification, we estimate minimum variance hedge ratios for electricity futures. Finally, we study the dynamic relation between spot and futures prices using an Exponential GARCH model and between the spot and futures returns series using a vector autoregression. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:931–955, 2003     

New development: Financial reforms played in two octaves— yet again?

Major public service reforms are underway at the national level in Australia. The reforms are being implemented progressively over a three-year period. This is the third in a series of articles looking at the implementation of these reforms and focuses on the second stage, which was supposed to be completed in 2015. The author examines the recent report of the Joint Committee of Public Accounts and Audit which reviewed the development of the ‘Performance Framework’ through a series of public hearings. He explains why, for good governance, particularly in a difficult economic and budgetary climate (domestically and internationally), public interest considerations must prevail, not just in issues about ‘how’ but also about ‘what’ is being actually achieved. There is considerable scope for shared learning and experience across governments and sectors of the economy in any reforms of the public sector.     

Designing Index‐Based Livestock Insurance for Managing Asset Risk in Northern Kenya

This article describes a novel index‐based livestock insurance (IBLI) product piloted among pastoralists in Northern Kenya, where insurance markets are effectively absent and uninsured risk exposure is a main cause of poverty. We describe the methodology used to design the contract and its underlying index of predicted area‐average livestock mortality, established statistically using longitudinal observations of household‐level herd mortality fit to remotely sensed vegetation data. Household‐level performance analysis based on simulations finds that IBLI removes 25–40 percent of total livestock mortality risk. We describe the contract pricing and the risk exposures of the underwriter to establish IBLI's reinsurability on international markets.     

Who Says there is a High Consensus Among Analysts when Market Uncertainty is High? Some New Evidence from the Commercial Real Estate Market

This paper seeks to determine whether analyst consensus is a function of the level of price informativeness, and therefore attempts to gauge the extent to which analyst consensus is high when market uncertainty is high. There is the view that a small or declining volume of trading implies less information and lower quality information, and that a lower level of price informativeness will lead analysts to put more weight on their private information at the time of forecasting. We add to this view the notion that when uncertainty is high there might be a positive option value of waiting. In this case, it appears reasonable to conclude that analysts may actually lack consensus when uncertainty is high. If this hypothesis is correct, then one would expect the level of price informativeness to override the Keynesian incentive “to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally” or at least reduce its magnitude in periods of declining trading volume and low price discovery. Tests of this hypothesis produce favorable results.