Effective protection and exchange-rate determination

Considerable research interest has entered on the implications for exchange-rate determination of fluctuations in intermediate goods prices ang changes in tariff protection. This paper draws together the strands of this literature by examining the role of effective protection in exchange rate determination. A disaggregated portfolio balance model of the open economy is used to analyze the determination of real and nominal exchange rates in the presence of rational expectations. Additionally, it is used to explore the implications for resource allocation of changes in the effective rate of protection in a country capable of influencing its terms of trade.     

Usefulness of the newly revised composite index of leading indicators as a quantitative predictor

This paper compares the performance of the current and earlier versions of the Commerce Department's Composite Index of Leading Indicators as predictors of quantitative (percentage) changes in real GNP. Almon-type distributed lag functions are estimated over a sample period covering the years 1948–1970. Tests of predictive accuracy focus on the post-sample period 1971–1975. The results, in terms of three commonly accepted measures of forecast accuracy (root mean square error, mean absolute error and Theil's U), indicate that the new index performs marginally better than the best of the older versions.     

Central bank cooperation under the interwar gold standard

The limits of cooperation and the failures of leadership are recurrent themes in historical accounts which seek to explain the instability of the interwar gold standard. Yet these themes are wholly incompatible with received models of the gold standard. In an attempt at reconciliation, this paper has presented a simple model of central bank interaction under the interwar gold standard, and used it to interpret Anglo-French financial relations following Britain's return to gold. The model is inspired by Keynes' and Norman's comment that the interwar system can be understood as a competitive struggle for gold. It shows that if two central banks play a noncooperative game in which they both seek to augment their gold reserves, they will tend to raise their discount rates above the level consistent with price stability, depressing incomes at home and abroad. While central bank policy was but one factor at work in the world economy in the 1920s, the model is suggestive when applied to a period marked by historically high discount rates, conflicts over the distribution of gold, and steady deflation culminating in a Great Depression.     

A negative report on the ‘near optimality’ of the max-expected-log policy as applied to bounded utilities for long lived programs

Much controversy surrounds the use of the portfolio investment rules induced by maximizing the expected logarithm of terminal wealth (henceforth referred to as the MEL policy). It has been thought that the MEL policy is a good approximation to the optimal investment program when the utility of terminal wealth function is bounded and when the time horizon is long. However, I exhibit a class of bounded utility of terminal wealth functions for which the MEL policy is a very poor approximation to the optimal program. Hence, the wholesale use of the MEL policy as an approximation to the optimal program is unwarranted.     

Salesperson stereotypes,consumer emotions,and their impact on information processing

This study examines salesperson stereotypes and their effect on the selling environment. After reviewing relevant literature, the authors advance a hierarchical structure of salesperson stereotype categories. Experimental results suggest that stereotypes influence consumer emotions, and these emotions then mediate the relationship between stereotype activation and subsequent consumer cognitions. He received his Ph.D. from Louisiana State University in 1991. His expertise is in the area of consumer behavior and research methods. Current research topics center on consumption-related emotions, their measurement, and their impact on decision making. His research appears in theJournal of Consumer Research, Journal of Business Research, Journal of Consumer Affairs, Advances in Consumer Research, as well as in numerous other national and regional publications. He received his Ph.D. from Louisiana State University. His research centers on sales management and the conflicting roles of salespeople. His work appears in prestigious outlets such as theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Journal of Personal Selling and Sales Management, Journal of Marketing Education, as well as in various conference proceedings. He received his Ph.D. from the University of North Carolina. He was named Outstanding Marketing Educator by the Academy of Marketing Science in 1990. He has published more than 400 scholarly articles in prestigious outlets such as theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Marketing Research, andJournal of Marketing.     

The characteristics and survival of public interest groups

Conclusion There is no reason to assume that pressure groups will further the public interest, however defined. Generally, pressure groups are formed to benefit the members of the group. Those interest groups that form to exert political pressure will be characterized by the distribution of benefits within the group as well as by the net benefits of organizing. These same factors will discourage other groups from organizing. Because of the public good characteristic, pressure groups must avoid the free rider problem. Thus, interest groups tend to be short lived. In the short run, they can solve this problem by providing some divisible benefits, and small groups can use social pressure. In the long run, membership must depend on coercion or institutionalized advantage.