Book review

Built by Japan: Competitive Straegies of the Japanese Construction Industry, Fumio Hasegawa & Shimizu Group FS New York, John Wiley & amp; Sons, 1988, 204 pp., US$25.00.

Technological Change at Work Ian McLouglin & Jon Clark Milton Keynes, Open University Press, 1988, 202 pp., Pb £9.00, Hb £25.00.

Enterprising Innovation: An Alternative Approach Veronica Mole & Dave Elliott London, Frances Pinter, 1987, pp. 180.

Flexible Automation: The Global Diffusion of New Technology in the Engineering Industry Charles Edquist Jacobsson Oxford, Basil Blackwell, 1988, Hb £35.00.

Expert Systems: Strategic Implications and Applications A. Beerel Chichester, Ellis Horwood Ltd, 1988, 173 pp., £22.50.     

EU Enlargement and the Portuguese Economy

The main focus of the present paper is on the emerging and likely future trade effects of enlargement. Though our particular concern is with Portugal, we set the scene by comparing the trade structures of the 10 countries of Central and Eastern Europe (i.e. the eight CEE accession states plus Bulgaria and Romania) – including an analysis of the individual cases of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland – with those of the EU15 as a whole, and with those of the 4 EU cohesion countries. The elimination of trade barriers between incumbents and accession states will have two trade‐related effects on EU incumbents: an increase in bilateral flows with the CEEC and a shift effect as the CEEC displace some incumbent exports to EU markets. The first effect is likely to be strongest for those incumbents for which there is a strong overlap between their export structure and the import structure of the CEEC. Portugal emerges as one of the economies with the least overlap. The displacement effect, we conclude, is likely to be particularly strong in the case of Portugal, given the high degree of similarity between Portuguese exports and those of the CEEC. Portugal appears to be ‘being squeezed from below’ in that, for the majority of its traditional export sectors, the CEEC became progressively more competitive during the second half of the 1990's. Portuguese specialisation was increasingly confined to low‐technology, low‐added‐value sectors with declining demand, as strong FDI inflows to the CEEC led to an increasing preponderance of more dynamic sectors in their export structures. Thus, Portugal is also being squeezed from above. This suggests that there may be substantial industrial disruption, in response to which labour‐market flexibility and dynamic entrepreneurial response is crucial. Intersectoral mobility is generally easier the more highly educated the workforce – an indicator on which Portugal scores poorly. The Portuguese labour market, however, displays a high degree of flexibility, consistent with its long lasting low rate of unemployment. Continued flexibility will help minimise these likely adjustment costs. Besides the trade and industry effects, other topics considered in the paper include the implications of enlargement for Portugal's ability to attract FDI, the likely consequences for Portugal of inward migration from the CEEC to the EU, and the implications of enlargement for Portugal's budgetary relations with the rest of the EU.     

Lessons of the crisis for emerging markets

This paper analyzes the impact of the global financial crisis on emerging markets. It argues that the crisis will have enduring implications for policy toward the development and liberalization of financial markets. In particular, emerging markets will rely (even) less on external finance and adopt a less permissive approach to foreign bank presence. In contrast, the crisis will have a much more limited impact on other aspects of globalization. More controversially, the paper argues that the crisis is unlikely to have a major impact on the structure of the international monetary system.     

Dynamic Relationships in the Market for Ocean Grain Freighting Services

A vector autoregressive model containing ocean grain freight rates, grain shipments, idled tonnage, new carrier deliveries and fuel prices is used to evaluate dynamic linkages in the ocean grain transport market. Dynamic relationships are of particular importance in ocean freighting months because freighting services are often contracted several months before shipment. In addition, such markets may be slow to adjust to shocks because of significant short-run fixities in shipping services. Ocean grain freight rates are found to be responsive to fuel prices and new ship deliveries, but are not affected by demand shocks. Ship idling rates are found to be sensitive to fuel prices, grain shipments and freight rates. Significant adjustment lags are revealed.     

Alternate forecasts of the job content and skill requirements of the American economy in 1980

This paper analyzes the potential job content and skill requirements of the American economy in 1980 under three alternate economic futures. Detailed occupational manpower requirements are generated on the basis of a “Status Quo” economy, a “Social Welfare” economy, and a “Defense” economy in the near future. Occupational manpower requirements are then translated into a Job Family-Skill Content classification to determine how these alternate national priority choices may affect future requirements for specific jobs, skills, educational preparation, and vocational training. The results obtained indicate the job families and skill classifications most sensitive to changes in basic economic parameters, and also identify long run trends in manpower and educational requirements unaffected by shifting social priorities and patterns of federal expenditures. The implications of these findings for manpower and educational planning are briefly discussed.     

Dimensions of the public affairs/government relations function in major American corporations

The public affairs/government relations (PA/GR) function appears to be growing in importance in large corporations. A survey of the 500 largest U.S. industrial concerns was undertaken to ascertain their views and practices with regard to the PA/GR function. 130 of the 163 firms responding to the survey have a formalized PA/GR function in place. Survey data supports the idea that top corporate decision makers are allocating significant staff and decision making authority to the PA/GR function and that this activity differs significantly from the traditional lobbying and public affairs activities of the past.     

Case management: an evaluation at Childrens Hospital Los Angeles

This prospective, quantitative, and qualitative evaluation of the case management program at CHLA clearly demonstrated the value of professional service coordination of care for children with complex, special health needs. Most specifically, the program documented improvement in three discrete areas of evaluation: 1. Financial, with decreased unnecessary expenditures and increased revenue. 2. Patient satisfaction, documented with validated questionnaires. 3. Clinical process improvement, using quantifiable clinical outcomes. At the very least, case management is an extremely valuable service in the present managed health care environment, and may in fact be indispensable.