Informed Traders and Price Variations in the Betting Market for Professional Basketball Games

This paper examines betting line changes from the opening to the closing of the point spread betting market on National Basketball Association games for evidence of informed trader betting. We show that within-betting period line changes significantly improve the accuracy of betting lines as forecasts of game outcomes. We examine individual line change magnitudes and show that these are directly and proportionately related to biases in opening lines. Further, line changes are of sufficient magnitude to remove these biases by the close of betting. We interpret these results as evidence that informed traders are influential in this market.     

Contingent Valuation Versus Choice Experiments: Estimating the Benefits of Environmentally Sensitive Areas in Scotland

This paper reports results from a study of the economic value of the conservation benefits of Environmentally Sensitive Areas (ESAs) in Scotland. The main novelty of the approach taken is in comparing two direct valuation methods, namely contingent valuation and choice experiments, to value these benefits. The Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) is well-established as a technique for valuing the sorts of landscape and wildlife enhancements associated with ESAs. The CVM experiment reported here uses a dichotomous choice format, and includes a new correction for part-whole bias. Choice experiments are much less used as an environmental valuation technique. We note several advantages of such experiments over CVM, and then report characteristic values and ‘programme values’ estimated using the method. This application brings to light some problems in applying the choice experiment method. Finally, we discuss the issue of benefits transfer in the context of these two approaches to valuation.     

Sharing Common Resources in Patriarchal and Status-Based Societies: Evidence from Tanzania

ABSTRACT

In rural African societies, socioeconomic differentiation linked to gender and social status exerts an important influence on the distribution of common-pool resources. Through a behavioral experiment conducted in 2008 in rural Tanzania, this contribution examines the influence of gender and social status on distribution behavior of users of self-governed common watersheds. It finds that men and women with low social status distribute water equally when water is abundant but keep larger shares when water is scarce, although low-status women try to be as fair as possible at the expense of their returns from irrigated agriculture. Men of high social status keep more than half of the available water for themselves, both in abundance and scarcity, and deprive others from sizeable returns from irrigated agriculture. Women of high social status share altruistically when water is abundant and equally when water is scarce, giving up on returns from irrigated agriculture.     

Workforce or workfare? The optimal use of work requirements when labour is supplied along the extensive margin

This paper explores the use of workfare as part of a tax mix when labour supply responses are along the extensive margin. In an economy where the government has a priori chosen any tax‐and‐benefit schedule, we show that, despite their common goal of providing additional incentives for individuals to enter the labour force, workfare and an earned income tax credit are at odds with each other. We also show that, in the presence of an optimal nonlinear income tax, introducing unproductive workfare is always suboptimal when individuals face the same disutility of being on workfare. When this disutility is heterogeneous, unproductive workfare may be a useful policy tool.     

The Bankruptcy System's Chapter 22 Recidivism Problem: How Serious is It?

This paper is adapted from the keynote address from the Eastern Finance Association's 2014 meeting in Pittsburg, Pennsylvania. We highlight a recidivism problem: about 15% of debtors who emerge as continuing entities under Chapter 11, or are acquired as part of the bankruptcy process, ultimately file for bankruptcy protection again (18.25% when considering only those firms which emerge as a continuing, independent entity). We argue that the “Chapter 22” issue should not be dismissed by the bankruptcy community just because no interested party objects during the confirmation hearing. Applying the Z”‐Score model to a large sample of Chapter 11 cases reveals highly different and significant expected survival profiles at emergence. Credible distress prediction techniques can effectively predict the future success of firms emerging from bankruptcy and be used by the bankruptcy court to assess the feasibility of the reorganization plan, a requirement mandated by the Bankruptcy Code. Branch reviews, discusses, and critiques in this follow‐up article to Altman's original thesis.