The predictive ability of a risk-adjusted yield spread for economic activity in Europe

This paper examines whether the pricing of risk is important for macroeconomic activity at the country level. We design a risk-adjusted yield spread and test its predictive content for economic activity on the periphery and the centre of Europe over the 1990–2012 period. This risk-adjusted bond yield spread is defined in a cross-country context and referred to as the GZ-type spread. Increases in the yield on corporate bonds issued in the countries on the periphery relative to the riskless yield (calculated using German zero-coupon term structure data) reflect increases in the risk premium that the financial market imposes on borrowers. The risk premium rises in all countries during European-wide recessions of the recent past, particularly those associated with the Global Financial and the Sovereign Debt Crisis. Our findings indicate further that this GZ-type spread acts as a reliable signal for imminent and near-term economic activity in countries where financial markets were shaken to their foundations during the Crisis period. For Germany, the GZ-spread has predictive content for industrial production but not for the unemployment rate. For GDP its predictive ability is confined to the EMU period.     

Do departures from democratic accountability compromise the stability of public finances? Keynesianism, central banking, and minority governments in the Canadian system of party government, 1867–2009

This paper is concerned with the effectiveness of Westminster parliamentary institutions in ensuring the stability of a nation??s public finances. Our starting point and major hypothesis is that the governance structure embodied in Canada??s parliamentary system has contributed importantly to the maintenance of fiscal stability. The fact that the Government of Canada, like the central government of many other modern democracies, has survived for over a century without default on its public debt means that in some meaningful sense, long run responsibility with respect to the nation??s finances has in fact been achieved, and we show that this is in fact the case. Hence a more meaningful test of our main hypothesis requires the designation of specific sub-periods when the ideological background for political policy making changed and/or when the institutions and organizations for operationalizing policy varied in ways that either improved or discouraged responsible fiscal performance. We consider ideational and institutional factors that are predicted to either enhance or detract from accountability and fiscal stability, including central banking, the adoption of Keynesianism, inflation targeting and periods of minority government, and test for their effects on long run stability of the debt to GDP ratio using data for almost the entire history of the modern state from 1867 to 2008.     

Incentive Contract and Weather Risk

We study contracts designed to remunerate a farmer for the production of an ecosystem service with the payment dependent on the results of the farmer’s actions and on weather conditions. Two contracts are proposed: the first takes into account both the results of the farmer’s actions and a weather variable that reflects the actual atmospheric conditions during the life of the contract; the second bases the payment on the results alone incorporating only the average effect of weather. Social welfare is optimal when both the results and the specific atmospheric conditions are taken into account; however, this type of contract may be less acceptable to the farmer due to his perception of the level of risk involved.We thank two referees for valuable comments.     

Bootstrap J-Test for Panel Data Models with Spatially Dependent Error Components,a Spatial Lag and Additional Endogenous Variables

We develop a bootstrap J-test method for testing a panel model against one non-nested alternative when the competing specifications are estimated by Feasible Generalised Spatial Two Stage Least Squares/Generalised Method of Moments (FGS2SLS/GMM). Both models incorporate spatially correlated error components, thus accounting for spatial heterogeneity via random effects, and accommodate endogenous regressors other than the spatially lagged dependent variable. The proposed scheme is applied to a testing problem involving non-nested wage equations as motivated by the Wage Curve literature and the New Economic Geography theory. Results show that our bootstrap test is a reliable and effective procedure for correcting asymptotic reference critical values and distinguishing between the two rival hypotheses.     

LA DÉLÉGATION DES SERVICES PUBLICS AUX ASSOCIATIONS PAR LES COLLECTIVITÉS LOCALES:

RÉSUMÉ ** : Dans le cadre communal français, des biens collectifs locaux sont offerts simultanement par les municipalités et par les associations. Toutefois, l'offre publique ne signifie pas toujours la production publique. Les municipalités peuvent ainsi déléguer la gestion de services collectifs locaux à des entreprises privées ou à des associations. La plupart du temps, les communes se contenteront de subventionner laproduction associative.
Aprés avoir précisé la distinction entre fourniture et production de biens, et le cadre légal et administratif particulier dans lequel s'inscrit la fourniture publique communale des biens et services collectifs locaux, nous soulignons les causes et les formes dupartenariat entre secteur public communal et associations, et les catégories d'actions associatives répondant aux attentes des municipalités.     

Semi-analytical prices for lookback and barrier options under the Heston model

Decisions in Economics and Finance - Under the Heston stochastic volatility model, we derive semi-analytical formulas for the prices of path-dependent options with payoffs linked to the maximum or...     

From volatility smiles to the volatility of volatility

Decisions in Economics and Finance - The paper reviews models of the option surface and reduced-form models for stochastic volatility in continuous time, under the risk-neutral measure. It defines...     

Restructuring Japanese business through Kyosei: Capitalizing on international strategic alliances at the consumer level

Japan of the post-bubble era is the object of much reflection and speculation pertaining to risutora or restructuring of the economy. This study provides a novel, analytical perspective on the fundamental issues involved in the shift of momentum that characterizes Japanese business and economic restructuring. After examining the economic and corporate dimensions of the transitional forces that shape Japan's restructuring process, this study focuses on two powerful, yet often ignored, agents of change: the emergence of a new class of collaborative mandates, kyosei, and the rise of consumer power. The study further emphasizes the importance of planning and managing corporate-level restructuring activities with the interests of end users in mind, by empirically demonstrating the significance of strategic alliances, as a corporate restructuring option, on consumers. The results show that consumers' impression of alliances with Japanese firms have a strong effect on future attitudes toward each partnering brand. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.