Valuing Pharma R&D: The Catch-22 of DCF

There are two principal methods for valuing pharmaceutical R&D projects—discounted cash flow (DCF) and real options valuation (ROV). As typically practiced, DCF valuations tend to be lower than the estimates produced by ROV techniques. Part of the difference, as many have recognized, stems from DCF s limited ability to take account of managers' real option to cut its losses when new information reveals a drug candidate's lack of profit potential. Another reason for the difference, however, is the widespread use in DCF valuations of established success rates that do not distinguish between projects that fail to pass safety or efficacy trials and those that are abandoned for lack of economic viability. If the appropriate success rates are used, the two methods should yield identical project values because they assume the same scenarios. The practical reality, however, is that the two methods deal in a completely different way with the possibility of abandonment for economic reasons. Because ROV accounts for this possibility directly in the model itself, it is much better suited than DCF to this task—indeed, that is the uncertainty that it is designed to deal with. And the fact that 30% of all pharma R&D abandonments are for economic reasons is a strong argument for using ROV rather than DCF to evaluate new drug development.     

Preston,Ivan L., The Tangled Web They Weave: Truth,Falsity, & Advertisers,Madison: The University of Wisconsin Press, 1994

Abstract

In an experiment, children in three grade levels (second, fourth, and sixth) viewed four advertisements. The children were shown advertisements with either metaphors in both pictorial and verbal form or a literal equivalent. The sixth graders interpreted more metaphors correctly than the fourth and second graders. In terms of recall of advertised content, the sixth and fourth graders recalled brand names, products, and additional copy better than the second graders. Within each grade level, metaphors did not enhance children's recall of advertised content or perceptions of the understandability of the advertisements and liking of the advertised products. The authors speculate that metaphors are most likely to enhance recall under conditions in which the metaphor serves as a direct representation linking the metaphor to the advertised product. Their findings suggest that advertisers should be aware that young readers may have difficulty interpreting metaphors and that metaphors may not be more effective in terms of children's recall and perception of understandability than literal versions of advertisements.     

Should all firms adapt websites to international audiences?

The authors investigate the moderating roles of brand equity and purchasing risk in the relationships between website cultural congruity (WCC) and two dependent variables: attitude toward the website (A_ST) and trust in the e-vendor. An exploratory study identifies typical French website design elements (graphic design and layout factors) to use in a subsequent experimental study to manipulate WCC. The results reveal that the effect of WCC on A_ST increases when brand equity is weak; for trust, both brand equity and purchasing risk act as moderators. The interaction between brand equity and purchasing risk reveals that WCC only influences trust when brand equity is weak. Overall, the results suggest that strong brand equity outweighs the effects of WCC in terms of improving site attitudes and reducing purchasing risk, with notable managerial and research implications.     

The Economic Impact of Marena’s Investments on Sustainable Agricultural Systems in Honduras

This study examines the economic impact of sustainable agricultural production systems in Central America. In particular, we investigate the impact of investments promoted by the MARENA Programme in Honduras on the total value of agricultural production (TVAP) of its beneficiaries. Propensity Score Matching techniques along with the Difference‐in‐Differences framework are used to mitigate biases stemming from differences in observed as well as unobserved (time‐invariant) characteristics between beneficiaries and a control group. The econometric estimates suggest that MARENA has had a positive and significant effect on the TVAP of beneficiaries. In addition, the analysis shows that, under alternative scenarios, MARENA yielded higher than expected internal rates of return. The results of this study shed light on the response of small‐scale hillside farmers to economic incentives and lend support to the role of natural resource management projects in Central America as a tool to increase household income while also promoting the conservation of natural resources.     

Birds,Birds, Birds: Co-Worker Similarity,Workplace Diversity and Job Switches

We investigate how the demographic composition of the workforce along the sex, nationality, education, age and tenure dimensions affects job switches. Fitting duration models for workers’ job-to-job turnover rate that control for workplace fixed effects in a representative sample of large manufacturing plants in Germany during 1975–2016, we find that larger co-worker similarity in all five dimensions substantially depresses job-to-job moves, whereas workplace diversity is of limited importance. In line with conventional wisdom, which has that birds of a feather flock together, our interpretation of the results is that workers prefer having co-workers of their kind and place less value on diverse workplaces.     

Employee motivation: a powerful new model

Motivating employees begins with recognizing that to do their best work, people must be in an environment that meets their basic emotional drives to acquire, bond, comprehend, and defend. So say Nohria and Groysberg, of Harvard Business School, and Lee, of the Center for Research on Corporate Performance. Using the results of surveys they conducted with employees at a wide range of Fortune 500 and other companies, they developed a model for how to increase workplace motivation dramatically. The authors identify the organizational levers that companies and frontline managers have at their disposal as they try to meet workers' deep needs. Reward systems that truly value good performance fulfill the drive to acquire. The drive to bond is best met by a culture that promotes collaboration and openness. Jobs that are designed to be meaningful and challenging meet the need to comprehend. Processes for performance management and resource allocation that are fair, trustworthy, and transparent address the drive to defend. Equipped with real-world company examples, the authors articulate how to apply these levers in productive ways. That application should not be selective, they argue, because a holistic approach gets you more than a piecemeal one. By using all four levers simultaneously, and thereby tackling all four drives, organizations can improve motivation levels by leaps and bounds. For example, a company that falls in the 50th percentile on employee motivation improves only to the 56th by boosting performance on one drive, but way up to the 88th percentile by doing better on all four drives. That's a powerful gain in competitive advantage that any business would relish.     

Bivariate asymmetric GARCH models with heavy tails and dynamic conditional correlations

A bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic model with dynamic conditional correlation and leverage effect (DCC-GJR-GARCH) for modelling financial time series data is considered. For robustness it is helpful to assume a multivariate Student-t distribution for the innovation terms. This paper proposes a new modified multivariate t-distribution which is a robustifying distribution and offers independent marginal Student-t distributions with different degrees of freedom, thereby highlighting the relationship among different assets. A Bayesian approach with adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo methods is used for statistical inference. A simulation experiment illustrates good performance in estimation over reasonable sample sizes. In the empirical studies, the pairwise relationship between the Australian stock market and foreign exchange market, and between the US stock market and crude oil market are investigated, including out-of-sample volatility forecasts.     

The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle and capital mobility: The role of the recent financial crisis

The Feldstein-Horioka (FH) puzzle has long been debated as it relates to the important topics of capital mobility and how to determine levels of investment. Adopting a recursive approach and panel techniques, this paper explores the impacts of the recent financial crisis on the validity of the puzzle. The OECD’s saving-investment correlation dropped to a record low just before the 2008 crisis began, reflecting the perceived ‘end’ of the FH puzzle in some studies. But since the onset of the crisis, our results indicate that this correlation has increased, suggesting the puzzle’s return. The puzzle for net capital-importing and net capital-exporting countries differs, with the relationship being more significant for the exporters compared to the importers, reflecting the asymmetry in terms of the degree of shocks across countries.     

Which of these people is your future CEO?

Americans have long believed that U.S. military officers--trained for high-stakes positions, resilience, and mental agility--make excellent CEOs. That belief is sound, but the authors' analysis of the performance of 45 companies led by CEOs with military experience revealed differences in how the branches (Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps) prepare leaders for business. Those differences reflect the trade-off between flexibility and process that each branch of the armed services must make. Army and Marine Corps officers operate in an inherently uncertain environment. They define the mission but then give subordinates the flexibility to adjust to realities on the ground. This leadership experience tends to turn out business executives who excel in small firms, where they can set a goal and then empower others to work toward it. Navy and Air Force officers, who operate expensive, complex systems such as submarines and aircraft carriers, are trained to follow processes to the letter, because even small deviations can have large consequences. In corporations, these leaders excel in regulated industries and in firms that take a process approach to innovation. The larger lesson that the military can offer the business world is that fit matters. Different circumstances demand different leadership skills. Hire the person who fits the job.