Is success hereditary? Evidence on the performance of spawned ventures

A common phenomenon in entrepreneurship is that employees turn away from employment to found their own businesses. Prior literature discusses the former employers’ characteristics that influence the creation of entrepreneurial ventures. An investigation of whether these characteristics also affect the success of the spawned ventures is missing so far. This paper contributes to the literature by showing that entrepreneurial ventures spawned by well performing firms are financially more successful than ventures stemming from poorly performing firms. This suggests that spawned entrepreneurs are able to exploit valuable knowledge from their previous employers which impacts their ventures’ performance positively. The analysis is based on a linked employee–employer data set for the Netherlands for the period 1999–2004.     

Venture capital in Europe: social capital,formal institutions and mediation effects

Venture capital (VC) as an industry has existed for more than 50 years, yet it has only moderately developed beyond the USA despite numerous trials of governments to foster it. Vast research endeavors have been carried out to understand the antecedents, barriers, and facilitators of the industry. However, the focus has been rather limited and accounted almost exclusively for formal features of institutional environments, leaving the informal dimensions unexplored. This paper tries to close that gap. Based on longitudinal country-level data on 18 European countries, we first explore if the “usual suspects,” mostly embodied in reformable formal institutions, do play a role in the European context. We also investigate if informal institutions, and in particular social capital, may exert a prominent effect. In this respect, we found that the impact of social capital on VC activity is indeed indirect, through determining those structural formal institutions which in turn significantly affect VC activity. These findings contribute to the literature on VC and inform European policy makers on the most promising channels for creating a prosperous institutional environment for the financing of innovative start-ups.     

Which of these people is your future CEO?

Americans have long believed that U.S. military officers--trained for high-stakes positions, resilience, and mental agility--make excellent CEOs. That belief is sound, but the authors' analysis of the performance of 45 companies led by CEOs with military experience revealed differences in how the branches (Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps) prepare leaders for business. Those differences reflect the trade-off between flexibility and process that each branch of the armed services must make. Army and Marine Corps officers operate in an inherently uncertain environment. They define the mission but then give subordinates the flexibility to adjust to realities on the ground. This leadership experience tends to turn out business executives who excel in small firms, where they can set a goal and then empower others to work toward it. Navy and Air Force officers, who operate expensive, complex systems such as submarines and aircraft carriers, are trained to follow processes to the letter, because even small deviations can have large consequences. In corporations, these leaders excel in regulated industries and in firms that take a process approach to innovation. The larger lesson that the military can offer the business world is that fit matters. Different circumstances demand different leadership skills. Hire the person who fits the job.     

Forecasting stock market returns over multiple time horizons

In this paper, we seek to demonstrate the predictability of stock market returns and explain the nature of this return predictability. To this end, we introduce investors with different investment horizons into the news-driven, analytic, agent-based market model developed in Gusev et al. [Algo. Finance, 2015, 4, 5–51]. This heterogeneous framework enables us to capture dynamics at multiple timescales, expanding the model’s applications and improving precision. We study the heterogeneous model theoretically and empirically to highlight essential mechanisms underlying certain market behaviours, such as transitions between bull and bear markets and the self-similar behaviour of price changes. Most importantly, we apply this model to show that the stock market is nearly efficient on intraday timescales, adjusting quickly to incoming news, but becomes inefficient on longer timescales, where news may have a long-lasting nonlinear impact on dynamics, attributable to a feedback mechanism acting over these horizons. Then, using the model, we design algorithmic strategies that utilize news flow, quantified and measured, as the only input to trade on market return forecasts over multiple horizons, from days to months. The backtested results suggest that the return is predictable to the extent that successful trading strategies can be constructed to harness this predictability.     

Do monetary indicators lead euro area inflation?

This paper assesses based on euro area data whether the strong in-sample long-run link between money growth and inflation that has been highlighted by a number of recent empirical studies is exploitable to predict inflation out of sample. The results from standard bivariate forecasting models suggest that no monetary (nor any other) single indicator significantly outperforms a simple benchmark forecast. The further analysis shows that it would be premature however to discard based on such evidence the usefulness of monetary (and all other) indicators. First, it is shown that based on judgemental adjustments to monetary indicators correcting for the effects of identifiable, persistent velocity shifts, it appears possible to significantly improve predictive ability in real time. Second, I find that a factor forecasting model combining monetary and economic indicators, which can be regarded as a generalized quantity theory- or two-pillar Phillips Curve-forecasting model, delivers a fairly good and stable forecasting performance.     

Knowledge structures of prospectors,analyzers, and defenders: content,structure, stability,and performance

The managerial cognition perspective argues that managers operating in complex, dynamic environments develop knowledge structures that help them focus their attention, interpretation, and actions. We explore the content and structure of top managers' strategic knowledge structures by measuring differences in the level of attention they give in annual reports to strategic issues and themes that Miles and Snow used to describe their main strategic types. Twenty-one themes that form seven main factors describing managers' strategic cognition are identified, and these demonstrate reasonable fit with the Miles and Snow model. We show that expert raters can recognize these factors when they read annual reports that contain them. Cluster analysis is then used to identify groups of firms that share similar profiles on these strategic dimensions which are interpreted as examples of cognitive strategic groups. These groups show alignment with Miles and Snow's strategic types, are relatively stable over time, and differ in financial performance. The sample comprises 1,038 listed Australian firms between the years 1992 and 2003. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Die Sovetwirtschaft,ihr Wesen und ihre neuere Entwicklung

Ein Vortrag, gehalten d.d. 22 April 1929 an der Universität Utrecht und dd. 24 April 1929 an der Universität Leiden.     

Time variation in U.S. wage dynamics

Supply and demand shocks had much stronger long-run effects on nominal wages and prices during the “Great Inflation”. For supply shocks, there is even a sign switch in the nominal wage response. Before and after the “Great Inflation”, nominal wages moved in the same direction as real wages and in the opposite direction of the price level, whereas nominal wages and prices moved in the same direction at longer horizons after the shock in the 1970s. Estimation of a DSGE model shows that these results reflect changes in the degree of wage indexation over time, which was considerably higher during the “Great Inflation”.     

Employee motivation: a powerful new model

Motivating employees begins with recognizing that to do their best work, people must be in an environment that meets their basic emotional drives to acquire, bond, comprehend, and defend. So say Nohria and Groysberg, of Harvard Business School, and Lee, of the Center for Research on Corporate Performance. Using the results of surveys they conducted with employees at a wide range of Fortune 500 and other companies, they developed a model for how to increase workplace motivation dramatically. The authors identify the organizational levers that companies and frontline managers have at their disposal as they try to meet workers' deep needs. Reward systems that truly value good performance fulfill the drive to acquire. The drive to bond is best met by a culture that promotes collaboration and openness. Jobs that are designed to be meaningful and challenging meet the need to comprehend. Processes for performance management and resource allocation that are fair, trustworthy, and transparent address the drive to defend. Equipped with real-world company examples, the authors articulate how to apply these levers in productive ways. That application should not be selective, they argue, because a holistic approach gets you more than a piecemeal one. By using all four levers simultaneously, and thereby tackling all four drives, organizations can improve motivation levels by leaps and bounds. For example, a company that falls in the 50th percentile on employee motivation improves only to the 56th by boosting performance on one drive, but way up to the 88th percentile by doing better on all four drives. That's a powerful gain in competitive advantage that any business would relish.