Birds,Birds, Birds: Co-Worker Similarity,Workplace Diversity and Job Switches

We investigate how the demographic composition of the workforce along the sex, nationality, education, age and tenure dimensions affects job switches. Fitting duration models for workers’ job-to-job turnover rate that control for workplace fixed effects in a representative sample of large manufacturing plants in Germany during 1975–2016, we find that larger co-worker similarity in all five dimensions substantially depresses job-to-job moves, whereas workplace diversity is of limited importance. In line with conventional wisdom, which has that birds of a feather flock together, our interpretation of the results is that workers prefer having co-workers of their kind and place less value on diverse workplaces.     

Do monetary indicators lead euro area inflation?

This paper assesses based on euro area data whether the strong in-sample long-run link between money growth and inflation that has been highlighted by a number of recent empirical studies is exploitable to predict inflation out of sample. The results from standard bivariate forecasting models suggest that no monetary (nor any other) single indicator significantly outperforms a simple benchmark forecast. The further analysis shows that it would be premature however to discard based on such evidence the usefulness of monetary (and all other) indicators. First, it is shown that based on judgemental adjustments to monetary indicators correcting for the effects of identifiable, persistent velocity shifts, it appears possible to significantly improve predictive ability in real time. Second, I find that a factor forecasting model combining monetary and economic indicators, which can be regarded as a generalized quantity theory- or two-pillar Phillips Curve-forecasting model, delivers a fairly good and stable forecasting performance.     

How to Achieve the Take-off into Sustained Growth: A Case Study for Slovenia

In this paper, we show that successful policy aimed at enhancing economic growth in the long run must be based on policies which improve human capital and technological progress. This is applied to Slovenia, a small open economy in the European Union and the Euro Area. In particular, we investigate how fiscal policies should be designed to support economic growth without violating the European Union Stability and Growth Pact. Using the SLOPOL10 model, an econometric model of the Slovenian economy, we analyse the effects of different fiscal policies in Slovenia over the next few years by means of simulations. The fiscal policy multipliers of the Slovenian economy are small and short-lived, which renders demand-side expansionary fiscal policies inappropriate as a means of achieving higher growth. However, if an increase in government expenditures directly related to technological progress is implemented (such as better funding for tertiary education or subsidies for firms’ investments in research and development), this can trigger a path of output which is permanently higher than that of the baseline simulation. Reducing income taxes and social security contributions has strong positive effects on employment. This result shows that the key to prosperity and sustained growth is investment in human capital and technology, also for a small open economy like Slovenia.     

Which of these people is your future CEO?

Americans have long believed that U.S. military officers--trained for high-stakes positions, resilience, and mental agility--make excellent CEOs. That belief is sound, but the authors' analysis of the performance of 45 companies led by CEOs with military experience revealed differences in how the branches (Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps) prepare leaders for business. Those differences reflect the trade-off between flexibility and process that each branch of the armed services must make. Army and Marine Corps officers operate in an inherently uncertain environment. They define the mission but then give subordinates the flexibility to adjust to realities on the ground. This leadership experience tends to turn out business executives who excel in small firms, where they can set a goal and then empower others to work toward it. Navy and Air Force officers, who operate expensive, complex systems such as submarines and aircraft carriers, are trained to follow processes to the letter, because even small deviations can have large consequences. In corporations, these leaders excel in regulated industries and in firms that take a process approach to innovation. The larger lesson that the military can offer the business world is that fit matters. Different circumstances demand different leadership skills. Hire the person who fits the job.     

Employee motivation: a powerful new model

Motivating employees begins with recognizing that to do their best work, people must be in an environment that meets their basic emotional drives to acquire, bond, comprehend, and defend. So say Nohria and Groysberg, of Harvard Business School, and Lee, of the Center for Research on Corporate Performance. Using the results of surveys they conducted with employees at a wide range of Fortune 500 and other companies, they developed a model for how to increase workplace motivation dramatically. The authors identify the organizational levers that companies and frontline managers have at their disposal as they try to meet workers' deep needs. Reward systems that truly value good performance fulfill the drive to acquire. The drive to bond is best met by a culture that promotes collaboration and openness. Jobs that are designed to be meaningful and challenging meet the need to comprehend. Processes for performance management and resource allocation that are fair, trustworthy, and transparent address the drive to defend. Equipped with real-world company examples, the authors articulate how to apply these levers in productive ways. That application should not be selective, they argue, because a holistic approach gets you more than a piecemeal one. By using all four levers simultaneously, and thereby tackling all four drives, organizations can improve motivation levels by leaps and bounds. For example, a company that falls in the 50th percentile on employee motivation improves only to the 56th by boosting performance on one drive, but way up to the 88th percentile by doing better on all four drives. That's a powerful gain in competitive advantage that any business would relish.     

Entrepreneurship and well-being: Past,present, and future

Entrepreneurship research typically emphasizes firm-level outcomes such as growth and performance. However, people pursue entrepreneurship for deeply personal, idiosyncratic reasons. Therefore, as in other self-organized human pursuits, how entrepreneurship relates to fulfillment and well-being is of utmost importance. In this paper, we provide an overview of the well-being concept, related research, and its connection to entrepreneurship. We define entrepreneurial well-being as the experience of satisfaction, positive affect, infrequent negative affect, and psychological functioning in relation to developing, starting, growing, and running an entrepreneurial venture. We explain this definition of entrepreneurial well-being and review significant developments in our field and the broader field of well-being. Highlights of social, technological and institutional trends illustrate key areas for future research that can enhance our understanding of these phenomena. The eight papers in this special issue focus on entrepreneurial well-being each offering a specific perspective on how scholars can theorize and study the antecedents and consequences of entrepreneurship related to well-being.     

Die Sovetwirtschaft,ihr Wesen und ihre neuere Entwicklung

Ein Vortrag, gehalten d.d. 22 April 1929 an der Universität Utrecht und dd. 24 April 1929 an der Universität Leiden.     

The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle and capital mobility: The role of the recent financial crisis

The Feldstein-Horioka (FH) puzzle has long been debated as it relates to the important topics of capital mobility and how to determine levels of investment. Adopting a recursive approach and panel techniques, this paper explores the impacts of the recent financial crisis on the validity of the puzzle. The OECD’s saving-investment correlation dropped to a record low just before the 2008 crisis began, reflecting the perceived ‘end’ of the FH puzzle in some studies. But since the onset of the crisis, our results indicate that this correlation has increased, suggesting the puzzle’s return. The puzzle for net capital-importing and net capital-exporting countries differs, with the relationship being more significant for the exporters compared to the importers, reflecting the asymmetry in terms of the degree of shocks across countries.