Goodness-of-fit tests for Poisson count time series based on the Stein–Chen identity

To test the null hypothesis of a Poisson marginal distribution, test statistics based on the Stein–Chen identity are proposed. For a wide class of Poisson count time series, the asymptotic distribution of different types of Stein–Chen statistics is derived, also if multiple statistics are jointly applied. The performance of the tests is analyzed with simulations, as well as the question which Stein–Chen functions should be used for which alternative. Illustrative data examples are presented, and possible extensions of the novel Stein–Chen approach are discussed as well.     

Patent-based investment funds as innovation intermediaries for SMEs: In-depth analysis of reciprocal interactions,motives and fallacies

SMEs and academic spin-offs play an important role in generating innovations but face resource and competency constraints that have implications for commercializing their technologies. In two in-depth case studies we analyze how patent-based investment funds (PBIFs), operating as innovation intermediaries, help overcome these constraints. In contrast to other patent intermediaries, PBIFs acquire patents and patentable inventions at an early stage of technology development when access to capital is particularly critical. They invest in the technological and legal advancement of their portfolio, which is mostly conducted in close interaction with the technology-providing SMEs and their original inventors. These PBIFs not only provide high added-value in the course of technology commercialization but also operate international networks to facilitate the commercialization of SMEs' technologies at an international scale. Although PBIFs are a promising new agent in the heterogeneous field of innovation intermediaries, their commercialization results and the actual rate of returns are not yet well established.     

The effects of unions and strikes on the rate of growth of total factor productivity in Canada

In this paper, the performance of the New Keynesian IS curve for the G7 countries is assessed. It is found that there is an IS puzzle for both the purely backward-looking as well as for the forward-looking IS curve. The real interest rate does not have a significantly negative effect on the output gap. Based on an extended specification of the IS curve, also including asset prices and monetary aggregates, a significantly negative interest rate effect on aggregate demand is found for all countries. This finding suggests that a richer specification of the IS curve in empirical work may be necessary in order to obtain an unbiased estimate of the effect of monetary policy on aggregate demand.     

Cross‐Country Determinants of Early‐Stage Necessity and Opportunity‐Motivated Entrepreneurship: Accounting for Model Uncertainty

Model uncertainty is one of the most pervasive challenges in the social sciences. Cross‐country studies in entrepreneurship have largely ignored this issue. In this paper, we evaluate the robustness of 44 possible determinants of early‐stage opportunity‐motivated entrepreneurship (OME) and necessity‐motivated entrepreneurship (NME) that are broadly classified in four groups: (1) economic variables, (2) formal institutions, (3) cultural values, and (4) legal origins and geography. The results, which are based on a representative world sample of up to 73 countries, suggest that institutional variables associated with the principles of economic freedom are most robustly correlated with OME and NME. Our findings also identify net income inequality and Scandinavian legal origins as weakly robust predictors of both types of entrepreneurial activity. Furthermore, we find that log GDP per capita is only a weakly robust predictor of NME, but not OME. We discuss implications for future research.     

Studying the association between air pollution and lung cancer incidence in a large metropolitan area using a kernel density function

In the absence of patient-specific data, composite level data are often used in epidemiological studies. However, since individual exposure levels cannot accurately be inferred from aggregate data, such an approach may lead to erroneous estimates of health effects of potential environmental risk factors. In the present study, we attempt to address this information-loss problem by using the “kernel density function”, which estimates the intensity of events across a surface, by calculating the overall number of cases situated within a given search radius from a target point. The present paper illustrates the use of this analytical technique for a study of association between the geographical distributions of lung cancer cases and SO₂ air pollution estimates in the Greater Haifa Metropolitan Area (GHMA). In the analysis, the results obtained by kernel smoothing are contrasted with those obtained by areal aggregation techniques more commonly used in empirical studies.     

EMU and the transmission of monetary policy: evidence from business lending rates

This paper analyses the pass-through of money market rates to short-term and long-term business lending rates in the four largest euro area countries. The main findings of the paper are (1) that since the start of EMU loan rates appear to have become more responsive to money market rate changes in France, Italy and Spain, but not in Germany, and (2) that German loan rates are significantly more sluggish than loan rates in the other three large euro area countries. I also test for non-linear pass-through based on an asymmetric error-correction model but do not find much evidence of non-linearity in euro area interest rate pass-through.The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily represent the views of the Deutsche Bundesbank.     

Employee motivation: a powerful new model

Motivating employees begins with recognizing that to do their best work, people must be in an environment that meets their basic emotional drives to acquire, bond, comprehend, and defend. So say Nohria and Groysberg, of Harvard Business School, and Lee, of the Center for Research on Corporate Performance. Using the results of surveys they conducted with employees at a wide range of Fortune 500 and other companies, they developed a model for how to increase workplace motivation dramatically. The authors identify the organizational levers that companies and frontline managers have at their disposal as they try to meet workers' deep needs. Reward systems that truly value good performance fulfill the drive to acquire. The drive to bond is best met by a culture that promotes collaboration and openness. Jobs that are designed to be meaningful and challenging meet the need to comprehend. Processes for performance management and resource allocation that are fair, trustworthy, and transparent address the drive to defend. Equipped with real-world company examples, the authors articulate how to apply these levers in productive ways. That application should not be selective, they argue, because a holistic approach gets you more than a piecemeal one. By using all four levers simultaneously, and thereby tackling all four drives, organizations can improve motivation levels by leaps and bounds. For example, a company that falls in the 50th percentile on employee motivation improves only to the 56th by boosting performance on one drive, but way up to the 88th percentile by doing better on all four drives. That's a powerful gain in competitive advantage that any business would relish.     

The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle and capital mobility: The role of the recent financial crisis

The Feldstein-Horioka (FH) puzzle has long been debated as it relates to the important topics of capital mobility and how to determine levels of investment. Adopting a recursive approach and panel techniques, this paper explores the impacts of the recent financial crisis on the validity of the puzzle. The OECD’s saving-investment correlation dropped to a record low just before the 2008 crisis began, reflecting the perceived ‘end’ of the FH puzzle in some studies. But since the onset of the crisis, our results indicate that this correlation has increased, suggesting the puzzle’s return. The puzzle for net capital-importing and net capital-exporting countries differs, with the relationship being more significant for the exporters compared to the importers, reflecting the asymmetry in terms of the degree of shocks across countries.     

Forecasting stock market returns over multiple time horizons

In this paper, we seek to demonstrate the predictability of stock market returns and explain the nature of this return predictability. To this end, we introduce investors with different investment horizons into the news-driven, analytic, agent-based market model developed in Gusev et al. [Algo. Finance, 2015, 4, 5–51]. This heterogeneous framework enables us to capture dynamics at multiple timescales, expanding the model’s applications and improving precision. We study the heterogeneous model theoretically and empirically to highlight essential mechanisms underlying certain market behaviours, such as transitions between bull and bear markets and the self-similar behaviour of price changes. Most importantly, we apply this model to show that the stock market is nearly efficient on intraday timescales, adjusting quickly to incoming news, but becomes inefficient on longer timescales, where news may have a long-lasting nonlinear impact on dynamics, attributable to a feedback mechanism acting over these horizons. Then, using the model, we design algorithmic strategies that utilize news flow, quantified and measured, as the only input to trade on market return forecasts over multiple horizons, from days to months. The backtested results suggest that the return is predictable to the extent that successful trading strategies can be constructed to harness this predictability.