公司治理、不确定性与现金价值

本文构建公司治理综合性指标体系,系统研究投资者对企业现金价值的评价问题.研究证实综合治理水平与不确定性对现金价值影响显著;高治理效率公司的现金价值高于低治理效率公司的现金价值,投资者愿为治理良好的公司支付流动性溢价;企业持有现金的投资缓冲功能使得受融资约束公司比不受融资约束公司的现金价值高.经验分析表明,优化企业治理机制、畅通融资渠道有利于减少现金占用,提高企业在不确定环境中的风险应对能力.     

THE 2012 LAWRENCE R. KLEIN LECTURE: BUBBLES IN PRICES OF EXHAUSTIBLE RESOURCES*

This article proposes a test for the presence of a bubble in the price of an exhaustible resource. A bubble is accompanied by a rise in the storage‐to‐consumption ratio: Consumption peters out, and a fraction of the original stock is held forever. The test suggests there is a bubble in the price of oil and in the market for high‐end Bordeaux wines, but other explanations are also possible. A bubble reduces welfare regardless of whether there are other stores of value, particularly fiat money.     

Wage differentials and state‐private sector employment choice in Yugoslavia*

In this study we use the newly available Yugoslavian Labor Force Survey data to investigate wage differentials and employment decisions in the state and private sectors in Yugoslavia. For the analysis we use three empirical models that rely on different statistical assumptions. We extend the standard switching regression model to allow non‐normality in the joint distribution of the error terms. After correcting for the sector selection bias and controlling for workers’ characteristics we find a private sector wage advantage. The wage premium is largest for workers with low education levels and declining for workers with higher educational levels. Given the regulatory and tax policies that pushed the private sector into the informal sphere of the economy during the period covered by our data, we argue that the state/private wage gap is likely to grow in the future. This will make it increasingly difficult for the state sector to attract and retain highly skilled employees.     

OPTIMAL MIGRATION: A WORLD PERSPECTIVE*

We ask what level of migration would maximize world welfare. Welfare is assumed to be a weighted average of the utilities of the world’s various citizens, but the weights are also country specific. Using a calibrated one‐sector model, we find that unless the weights are heavily biased toward the natives of rich countries, the extent of migration that would be optimal far exceeds the levels observed today. The claim remains true in a two‐sector extension of the model. All versions of the model assume that migration is the only redistributive tool.     

生态旅游在我国国家公园中的定位及效益研究

聚焦于生态旅游,通过讨论其在建立国家公园体制中的意义和作用,总结得出生态旅游是国家公园实现绿色可持续发展的必经之路和最重要的方式。生态旅游发挥的价值和效益,促使国家公园在保护自然生态系统原真性、完整性的同时,也确保了区域经济的可持续增长,提高了一定范围内社区居民的生活水平及质量。最后,从坚持保护第一、丰富体验方式、创新经营管理、提升服务能力、协调全域旅游以及健全法律法规等六个方面建议了国家公园开展生态旅游的实现路径,以期为推进国家公园体制建设、实现游憩利用这一重要功能提供理论依据。     

BEVQUAL: a tool for measuring performance quality in beverage operations

The main objective of this study was to develop an instrument to measure the multidimensional nature of performance quality in beverage establishments. This study was based on a sequential exploratory mixed methods design. Interviews with beverage managers and customer focus groups were conducted to create an initial instrument. After that, 405 customers were surveyed, and the final BEVQUAL instrument was developed, including six dimensions that were measured with 23 items. Atmosphere, service quality, and pricing were shown to be good predictors of customer satisfaction, while ambiance, beverage quality, and location did not affect customer satisfaction.     

Growth forecast errors and government investment and consumption multipliers

We compare government investment and consumption multipliers in developed economies during the initial years of the ongoing fiscal consolidation. We find that, in countries with high public debt, the investment multiplier is likely to be higher than what has been assumed by policy-makers and higher than the consumption multiplier. This leads to the conclusion that the consolidation should be accompanied by increased public investment.     

Does God practice a random walk? The 'financial physics' of a nineteenth-century forerunner,Jules Regnault

We analyse the work of a neglected French economist, Jules Regnault, whose Calcul des Chances et Philosophie de la Bourse (1863) laid the basis of modern stochastic models of price behaviour and contains an anticipation of econometrics. At a time when short-term speculation was denounced as immoral, he approached this question ‘scientifically’ and constructed two models. The first one was relative to short-term speculation and took the shape of a random walk - a model used by Bachelier (1900). The second one deals with long-term speculation and aims at evaluating the mean value of the French 3 per cent bond.     

Investment options and the business cycle

This paper extends [R. Mehra, E.C. Prescott, Recursive competitive equilibrium: The case of homogeneous households, Econometrica 48 (1980) 1365-1380] to a production economy with two capital goods. It is an RBC model in which each unit of investment requires a new idea, an ‘option.’ When options are scarce, new capital is harder to put in place and the value of old capital rises. Thus the stock market and Tobin's Q are negative indexes of intangibles. During a boom, Q rises gradually, as options are used up. Because investment represents an exercise of options, it has an intertemporal substitution tradeoff that is absent from the adjustment-cost model. Equilibrium may be efficient even without markets for knowledge; the stock market may suffice.     

When should firms invest in old capital?

The present paper analyzes optimal investment policies when the production function depends on capital of various vintages. In such an environment it is natural to ask whether the firm will invest in old-vintage capital at all. Other studies do not tell us when investment in old capital will take place. In the present paper I derive such a condition. Predictably, investment in old capital takes place if the elasticity of substitution between old and new capital is low, and when the depreciation of capital is high. However, other parameters such as the rates of technological progress and depreciation matter as well.