The equilibrium allocation of investment capital in the presence of adverse selection and costly state verification

Summary We consider credit rationing in an environment with adverse selection and costly state verification. The presence of costly state verification permits debt contracts to emerge under conditions that we specify. When debt contracts are observed, so is credit rationing. This rationing occurs even if it is possible for rationed borrowers to bid up expected returns to lenders and hence is voluntary. We also show how the adverse selection and costly state verification problems interact and investigate how improvements in information gathering technology impact on the extent of credit rationing.The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis or the Federal Reserve System. We have benefitted from comments on an earlier draft of this paper by Franklin Allen, Charlie Calomiris, V. V. Chari, Ed Green, Craig Holden, Jeff Lacker, George Pennachi, Neil Wallace, Anne Villamil, and an anonymous referee and from discussions with Edward Prescott.     

ANALYZING POSTSECONDARY RETURNS: DOES EDUCATIONAL LOAN DEFAULT PLAY A ROLE?

The economic benefits of a traditional college education relative to a high school degree are well known to students and economists alike. However, little is known about the economic returns associated with associate and vocational degrees. Using a large micro-data set of former guaranteed student loan borrowers, this paper analyzes post-schooling returns for bachelors as well as associates and vocational students. The analysis further extends the existing literature by controlling for individual characteristics that income studies typically do not measure. By including the default status of the educational loan used to finance the postsecondary education, the intrinsic individual characteristics of commitment and initiative are controlled for and are found to significantly increase earnings.     

Poverty,shocks and school disruption episodes among adolescents in KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa

While conventional explanations of drop-out and grade repetition acknowledge the role of socioeconomic factors, this paper uses data collected in a KwaZulu-Natal study of adolescents to investigate the explicit contribution of poverty and shocks to school disruption episodes. The asset-vulnerability framework developed by Moser and others is used to develop a poverty-based theory of school disruption. Evidence against such a theory is also put forward. The results indicate that the poverty-based theory accounts in part for school disruption. Poverty is predictive of school disruption, female adolescents are particularly vulnerable to drop-out episodes, and adolescent pregnancy emerges as an important influence. However, household shocks do not seem to predict school disruption. Programmes that offer incentives for school attendance and improving school quality are put forward as policy options for South Africa.     

Suspicion: Its sources, means of control, and effect on interorganizational relationships

Suspicion in the interorganizational relationship literature has been associated with relationship decay but this literature fails to capture the value of suspicion in maintaining relationships. The authors offer an inventory of propositions, suggesting that the level of suspicion determines whether it has beneficial or harmful effects on channel relationships. Support for many of these propositions is based on a unique attribute of suspicion: Suspicion serves as an antidote to the fundamental attribution error, or the tendency to take behavior at face value without allowing for situational influences. Such an attribute suggests suspicion should have an important influence on interorganizational relationships. Specifically, the authors propose that suspicion can be beneficial at moderate levels, but harmful at very low or high levels. Of particular interest to practitioners, we propose some methods for controlling suspicion.     

ENERGY INTENSITY IMPROVEMENTS IN STEEL MINIMILLS

Over the past 20 years, U.S. steel manufacturing has experienced an episode of creative destruction. Iron-ore based plants closed, and new electric arc furnace (EAF) plants–the "minimills"–opened. The steel industry is an energy intensive segment of manufacturing, and the changeover causes major change in energy use. The analysis here links a plant-level database from the Bureau of the Census with publicly available sources and obtains measures of the best practice energy use in minimills. The analysis examines how technical efficiency, vintage, and capacity utilization affect plant-level electricity use per ton of steel. This measure of electricity use gives a plant's "energy intensity." Plants in the sample keep operating even during deep recessions, suggesting that energy, e.g., BTU, taxes may fall short of the fullest potential for reducing energy use. During recession, plants actually may continue to operate at lower output rates and higher energy intensities rather than close down. Substantial potential exists for energy improvements of as much as 1 billion kWh per year. New facilities exhibit energy intensity improvement of 6.2 kWh/ton per year. This finding is consistent with engineering estimates. Realizing this potential among all plants would require policies that assist capital turnover.     

Incomplete Markets and Hyperbolic Discounting

A growing number of empirical researchers are finding evidence of hyperbolic discounting in their investigations on the nature of preferences for distributing consumption over time. This article contributes to the literature by exposing a large class of models in which hyperbolic and exponential discounting are observationally equivalent. The results of the modeling approach simultaneously resolve serious concerns raised by other models in the literature that have been used to explain the empirical findings and answer other questions raised by the phenomenon that are unexplained by earlier contributions. By analyzing an intertemporal general equilibrium model with incomplete insurance markets, this article demonstrates that for sufficiently short time horizons, values implied by a hyperbolic discount function fall within incomplete market valuation bounds.