Forecasting annual excess stock returns via an adaptive network‐based fuzzy inference system

In this study, an adaptive network‐based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and a neural network were tested for the ability of these techniques to forecast the annual excess returns of three large publicly traded companies from a time series of said returns. The predictive ability of these techniques was compared with that of an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. The Fair–Shiller test was used in the comparisons in order to obtain results that were not subjective and so that conclusions could be made regarding the information used by the techniques in the generation of their forecasts. Since predictive ability does not translate to profitability, a simple trading strategy was used to determine the ability to generate profits from trading upon the forecasts of the respective techniques. As hypothesized, the ANFIS and neural network techniques are able to generate forecasts with significant predictive ability. However, neither technique dominates the other or the ARMA model. In tests of the ability of the techniques to generate profits from their forecasts, a simple trading strategy was used (trading on the predicted sign of the return). The ANFIS and the neural network generated profits in all of the trading scenarios. However, neither technique dominated the other, nor did they consistently outperform the traditional and naive models (strategies). The mixed results in the predictive ability tests and the profitability tests indicate that the conclusions from the study differ based upon the context in which the forecasts are used. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of on-field football success on the off-field financial performance of AFL football clubs

In this study, we examine the factors that contribute to the financial performance of clubs in the Australian Football League over the period from 1993 to 2002. Primarily, we examine the association between the on‐field football success of clubs and their level of off‐field financial performance. We find that match attendance is positively related to both short‐term and long‐term success of football clubs and also to the uncertainty as to the match outcome (i.e. the expected closeness of the match). We also find that club membership is highly persistent and is positively related to both the past football success of the club and the marketing expense incurred. Finally, we find that there is a significant association between the level of marketing revenue and the level of on‐field success in the prior 2 years.     

Community-based tourism enterprises: challenges and prospects for community participation; Khama Rhino Sanctuary Trust,Botswana

This study assesses community participation in a community-based tourism enterprise in Botswana, the Khama Rhino Sanctuary Trust, founded in 1992. Data were collected using structured and semi-structured questionnaires, interviews with key stakeholders and community focus group discussions. Results indicate that although Community-Based Natural Resource Management is popular in many southern African nations, communities still face challenges and constraints which hinder their participation in community-based enterprises. While some other studies in Botswana indicate the value of community-based tourism, 95% of adult residents in the Khama Rhino Sanctuary Trust area did not know who owned the Trust, and 98% had never been to the Trust's lands. There was community disappointment about loss of cattle grazing and other land-related benefits, lack of communication with the community, lack of benefits, the low numbers employed and the slow progress of the project which did not record a profit until 2008. But the Trust now has over 25% of the rhinos in Botswana and has seen visitor numbers rise from 1820 in 1996 to over 21,000 in 2008. Suggestions for the future include appointment of a community liaison officer, training for local people in tourism and management and use of single-community rather than multi-community trusts.     

The implications of e-commerce for strategy: UK case studies

In this paper, four case studies of retail financial services companies involved in Internet marketing of their services are investigated. The approaches taken range from a fully integrated approach, a stand-alone approach separate from the mainstream of the company's business, an experimental approach and an approach that can only be described as ‘reluctant’. The cases demonstrate the critical role of senior management, the possible limitations of market intelligence as a guide to action, the need to focus on resources and capabilities, and the requirement for creativity in strategy.     

Can Public Service Efficiency Measurement be a Useful Tool of Government? The Lesson of the Spottiswoode Report

This article critically reviews the Spottiswoode Report on 'Improving Police Performance' produced for the Public Services Productivity Panel. The article questions the report's recommendations that Data Envelopment Analysis (supported by Stochastic Frontier Analysis) be used to measure the efficiency of the 43 police forces in England and Wales and that the technique might be extended to other public services. The article gives, as simply as possible, the basic technical details needed for readers to understand the key issues raised by the report.     

Ethnic banking in the USA

This paper describes the development of the ethnic banking market in the USA. It portrays the main ethnic groups involved and how they manage their relationships with banks, whether as individuals, families or small businesses. It analyses how banks have responded to the ethnic marketing opportunity and then suggests which areas banks need to focus on in order to improve management of their ethnic customers.     

Fracture incidence among elderly people in institutional care: linking injury surveillance data with a postal code-based register of residential and nursing homes

Fracture prevention strategies will be most cost-effective if targeted at groups of frail elderly people who are at particularly high risk of falls and fractures. Elderly people living in residential and nursing homes are one potential target population, but fracture incidence in this setting remains poorly defined in many countries. We have used the All Wales Injury Surveillance System (AWISS) in a population-based study of people aged over 65 living in the city of Cardiff. We linked a postal code-based register of all care homes in the city with injury data from Cardiff’s only Accident and Emergency department. Cardiff has 47,520 residents aged over 65, and 1,874 (3.9%) live in residential or nursing homes. Fracture incidence was 25/1,000/year overall, and 5/1,000/year for hip fracture. During 1997, the care home residents suffered 162 fractures, 82 of which were of the hip; an incidence of 86/1,000/year overall, 44/1,000/year for hip fracture. Even after adjustment for the age and sex profile of the care home population, fracture incidence remained 2.3 times higher and hip fracture incidence 3.6 times higher than in the general elderly population. Such figures support the potential cost-effectiveness of strategies that prevent fractures in care homes, and are of special interest to those planning intervention studies in this setting.     

Do social exclusion and remoteness explain the digital divide in Australia? Evidence from a panel data estimation approach

ABSTRACT

Despite rapid digital development in the past two decades, the remote parts of Australia still experience disadvantages with the adoption and diffusion of digital technology. As the adoption of information and communication technology continues to increase at a significant rate, investigating the underlying factors of the digital divide in general and also in the context of social exclusion in Australia is pertinent. The current study fills the gap in the existing body of knowledge by exploring the effect of socio-demographic factors and remoteness on the digital divide landscape with a country-specific focus on Australia. Using state-wide longitudinal data covering the 1998–2015 period within the panel data estimation framework, this study finds that digital divide is significantly associated with socio-demographic factors and remoteness in Australia. Moreover, the findings affirm that in addition to telecommunication infrastructure development, policymakers should also underscore socio-demographic factors in shaping digital inclusion strategies.