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Commercial Mortgage Defaults: Proportional Hazards Estimation Using Individual Loan Histories 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Kerry D. Vandell Walter Barnes David Hartzell Dennis Kraft William Wendt 《Real Estate Economics》1993,21(4):451-480
This paper examines the theory of commercial mortgage default and tests it using a data set of 2,899 loan histories provided by a major multi-line insurance company. A default model is estimated which relates subsequent default incidence and timing to contemporaneous loan term, borrower, property and economic/market conditions. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate a hazard function predicting conditional probability of default over time. Results confirm many expected default relationships, in particular the dominance of loan terms and property value trends over time in affecting default. The effectiveness of the model in discriminating between "good" and "bad" loans is explored. Implications for underwriting practice and credit risk diversification are noted. Finally, suggestions are made for extending these results in pricing applications. 相似文献
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Barnes Douglas F.; Openshaw Keith; Smith Kirk R.; Plas Robert van der 《World Bank Research Observer》1993,8(2):119-141
The poorer half of the world's people have long relied for theirenergy needs on woodfuels. Since the oil shocks of the 1970s,pressure on forest resources has increased and the costs oftraditional use of woodfuels have been growingto thehouseholder, in cash or collection time, and to society in inefficientenergy use, deforestation, and local and global harm to healthand the environment. Modern, efficient stoves can alleviatesome of these problems; programs to design and disseminate themwould seem a worthwhile pursuit for development activity. But do such programs in fact warrant the investment? Why haveso many failed to catch on as expected? The authors find thatprograms have been most successful when targeted to specificareas where woodfuel prices or collection times are high. Fieldtesting, consumer surveys, and involvement of local artisansfrom the outset have been critical to the ultimate adoptionof the stoves. With these elements in place, external supportfrom governments and donors can be useful; lacking them, subsidiesmay succeed only in distributing stoves that ultimately molderaway unused. This article's review of what makes for successand failure is instructive for the design of stove programsin particular, and of development projects that propagate improvedmethods and technologies in general. 相似文献
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The venture planning and analysis (VPA) system is a quantitative analysis useful for developing pricing policy, projecting financial results, and comparing various investment opportunities. It is an integrated approach to product (investment) evaluation utilizing both marketing and cost information to determine an optimum pricing strategy.A venture plan is developed which covers several years of the anticipated life of the product (venture). The pricing strategy is determined by identifying the relationship between price, volume, and variable cost which yields the greatest positive cash flow. Revenue, variable expense, fixed expense, and engineering expense are input by fiscal year.The VPA system computes interest expense/income and cash flows. Ratios of the venture's quality-marginal investment quality factor and investment quality factor-are displayed, as are matrices which indicate the sensitivity of the venture to changes in the input data. Computer generated plots also help illustrate the cash flow and optimum level of production for each fiscal year of the analysis. 相似文献
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Victoria Barnes 《Business History》2018,60(4):447-473
After the Bank Charter Act in 1833, English banks could branch nationally without legal or geographical restriction. It has been previously thought that despite this freedom, early English joint-stock banks predominantly began as single units. Drawing upon a new data set, this article maps the growth of branch banking, the size of bank networks and their geographical location and spread. It demonstrates that banks pursued branching strategies energetically against the intentions of regulators and were successful in forming large and complex networks. However, ultimately, before 1880 the majority settled for local, district and multi-regional structures, as opposed to national structures. 相似文献
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Ibrahim Abosag Dorothy Ai-wan Yen Bradley R. Barnes Eman Gadalla 《International Business Review》2021,30(4):101775
Previous studies on guanxi (關係) have focused on how guanxi contributes positively to business relationships, without addressing the pivotal role that guanxi plays in managing the dark-side of business relationships. To address this knowledge gap, this study specifically investigates guanxi’s influence on conflict, opportunism, and switching intention in Sino–U.S. business relationships and examines how guanxi mediate the positive effect of performance as well as the negative effect of uncertainty on such dark-side constructs. Drawing on data from over 270 Chinese firms, the findings reveal that guanxi is undermined by relationship uncertainty but enhanced by performance, guanxi also reduces the dark-side of Sino-US business relationships. Chinese buyers’ guanxi with U.S. suppliers significantly lessens their switching intention, opportunistic behavior, and the perceived levels of conflict in Sino-US relationships. The findings explain how guanxi is employed as a tool to reduce the burden associated with the dark-side of business relationships and give relevant implications. 相似文献