Efficiency characteristics of a market for state contingent claims

This paper concludes that a market for state-contingent claims (UK horserace betting) displays evidence of pervasive but heterogeneous forms of inefficiency, in significant contrast to earlier investigations. Using hitherto unavailable data, comparison of notional returns implicit in parallel sets of bookmaker and parimutuel odds identifies inefficiency in terms of zones of distinct but contrasting forms of cross-;market returns differential. The inefficiency is rationalized in terms of both buyer and supplier behaviour; its durability is explained in terms of limited arbitrage opportunities.     

Cost-effectiveness of combination daclatasvir-sofosbuvir for treatment of genotype 3 chronic hepatitis C infection in the United States

Background: A phase III trial evaluated the efficacy and safety of Daklinza (daclatasvir or DCV) in combination with sofosbuvir (SOF) for treatment of genotype (GT) 3 hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients.

Aim: This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of DCV?+?SOF vs SOF in combination with ribavirin (RBV) over a 20-year time horizon from the perspective of a United States (US) payer.

Methods: A published Markov model was adapted to reflect US demographic characteristics, treatment patterns, costs of drug acquisition, monitoring, disease and adverse event management, and mortality risks. Clinical inputs came from the ALLY-3 and VALENCE trials. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-utility ratio. Life-years, incidence of complications, number of patients achieving sustained virological response (SVR), and the total cost per SVR were secondary outcomes. Costs (2014 USD) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were discounted at 3% per year. Deterministic, probabilistic, and scenario sensitivity analyses were conducted.

Results: DCV?+?SOF was associated with lower costs and better effectiveness than SOF?+?RBV in the base case and in almost all scenarios (i.e. treatment-experienced, non-cirrhotic, time horizons of 5, 10, and 80 years). DCV?+?SOF was less costly, but also slightly less effective than SOF?+?RBV in the cirrhotic and treatment-naïve population scenarios. Results were sensitive to variations in the probability of achieving SVR for both treatment arms. DCV?+?SOF costs less than $50,000 per QALY gained in 79% of all probabilistic iterations compared with SOF?+?RBV.

Conclusion: DCV?+?SOF is a dominant option compared with SOF?+?RBV in the US for the overall GT 3 HCV patient population.     

TO TAX OR NOT TO TAX? THE CASE OF ELECTRONIC COMMERCE

Despite the intensifying debate over the taxation of Internet commerce, the relevant issues have not been given a systematic treatment in the context of the literature on optimal taxation. This article presents such an analysis and investigates separately the taxation of business purchases of intermediate goods, the taxation of consumer purchases of final goods and services, and the various issues of administration and compliance costs as they apply to the development of E-commerce. The authors conclude that generally the optimal tax literature cannot be used in support of a blanket tax exemption for Internet purchases. Certain conditions could lead to the optimality of an exemption, but those conditions are not likely to be met in practice.     

Analysis of Shared and Sustainable Value Creation of Companies Providing Energy Solutions at the Base of the Pyramid (BoP)

This study was conducted to analyze the shared and sustainable value creation (SSVC) of 33 energy companies selling energy solutions at the base of the pyramid (BoP) markets. SSVC by selling energy technology solutions directed to address the cooking and lighting needs of BoP consumers were the main focus of analysis. Result showed that achieving profitability and affordability is affected by the kind of energy solution that is offered as well as the investment and level of commitment required. However, companies that fulfilled the profitable and affordable solutions were also able to deliver social and environmental sustainability benefits. Social sustainability benefits point to the ability of alleviating poverty by improving productivity or offering cost‐savings. Environmental sustainability benefits point to the energy savings. The findings show that inclusive business strategy is not necessarily required to reach the poor people profitably but a suitable business strategy depends on the type of energy solution. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

Creditor Rights,Country Governance,and Corporate Cash Holdings

This study examines the impact of creditor rights and country governance on cash holdings using a sample of firms from 47 countries. We hypothesize that cash holdings are smaller when both creditor rights and country governance are high. In these circumstances firms will not need to hold as much cash for future investments needs (precautionary funds) because firms will expect that funds will be available in the future. Our findings support our hypothesis and hold for alternative definitions for cash holdings, different country samples, different definitions of governance and concerns about endogeneity.     

FINANCIAL CONSISTENCY IN LONGITUDINAL MICROSIMULATION: HOMEMAKER PENSIONS RE-EXAMINED

Transfer programs, including public pension plans, do not generate wealth. In this paper methods of distributional analysis that lack budget constraints and are prone to illusions of wealth creation are criticized. A microsimulation analysis reported in "Homemaker Pension and Lifetime Redistribution" (Wolfson, 1988) is repeated using a conceptual framework that imposes a balance between the positive and negative impacts of transfer programs. This alternate analytical perspective reverses the distributional conclusions of the earlier study conducted using the same model.     

Bayesian averaging,prediction and nonnested model selection

This paper studies the asymptotic relationship between Bayesian model averaging and post-selection frequentist predictors in both nested and nonnested models. We derive conditions under which their difference is of a smaller order of magnitude than the inverse of the square root of the sample size in large samples. This result depends crucially on the relation between posterior odds and frequentist model selection criteria. Weak conditions are given under which consistent model selection is feasible, regardless of whether models are nested or nonnested and regardless of whether models are correctly specified or not, in the sense that they select the best model with the least number of parameters with probability converging to 1. Under these conditions, Bayesian posterior odds and BICs are consistent for selecting among nested models, but are not consistent for selecting among nonnested models and possibly overlapping models. These findings have important bearing for applied researchers who are frequent users of model selection tools for empirical investigation of model predictions.     

International trade and technical progress: the role of capital good imports in Portugal>

This paper develops an empirical analysis of the relationship between sectoral openness to capital good imports and technological sophistication. Input-output data from Portugal are used to demonstrate a strong relation between capital imports and sectoral technological levels as measured by vertically integrated labour coefficients. Both regression and non-parametric analyses are used. Such a relationship demonstrates the necessity of breaking out of the long-held focus on one-time exchange gains by trade theorists. It is argued that productivity gains from trade resulting from transfers of technology are primary gains of great importance and must be incorporated into theoretical work on trade. The paper also demonstrates a strong connection between a sector's capital imports and the technical training of the workforce of the sector. This suggests a relation between a sector's level of technology and its ability to make further advances through capital imports embodying advanced foreign technology. Sectors (countries) need technically trained workers in order to achieve a successful transfer. Interestingly, it is found that while Portugal clearly utilized trade with its more developed trading partners to augment its technology, this was not enough to avoid a technological divergence from its more developed neighbours. Several reasons for this are posited.