Substitute goods, auctions, and equilibrium

This paper identifies two notions of substitutes for auction and equilibrium analysis. Weak substitutes, the usual price-theory notion, guarantees monotonicity of tâtonnement processes and convergence of clock auctions to a pseudo-equilibrium, but only strong substitutes, which treats each unit traded as a distinct good with its own price, guarantees that every pseudo-equilibrium is a Walrasian equilibrium, that the Vickrey outcome is in the core, and that the “law of aggregate demand” is satisfied. When goods are divisible, weak substitutes along with concavity guarantees all of the above properties, except for the law of aggregate demand.     

International portfolio reallocation: Diversification benefits and European monetary union

We investigate the determinants of bilateral international equity and bond portfolio reallocation across a large cross-section of countries spanning over two sample periods: 1997-2001 and 1997-2005. We find that the strongest drivers are the marginal diversification benefits arising from the pure asset component and the initial degree of underweight. This evidence suggests that global portfolio reallocations over the asset boom and bust period were determined by optimal diversification considerations. We also find that due to economic and monetary union (EMU) the weight assigned by euro area investors to investment in euro area countries increased significantly in equity and fixed income portfolios, with a trade diverting effect against the British bond market.     

Identification and dimension of the NAIRU

In this paper, we have re-examined the identification of the NAIRU and presented a well-defined reduced form for analysing the equilibrium unemployment rate, using a cointegrated VAR model. We have stated that the NAIRU estimates using the conventional reduced form (or Phillips curve) models are misleading since the natural rate of unemployment cannot be considered as a fixed point calling for the ceteris paribus assumption for all the data involved. This implies that the NAIRU estimates are unable to provide valuable information on the labour market status.     

Dynamic programming for valuing American options under a variance-gamma process

Lévy processes provide a solution to overcome the shortcomings of the lognormal hypothesis. A growing literature proposes the use of pure-jump Lévy processes, such as the variance-gamma (VG) model. In this setting, explicit solutions for derivative prices are unavailable, for instance, for the valuation of American options. We propose a dynamic programming approach coupled with finite elements for valuing American-style options under an extended VG model. Our numerical experiments confirm the convergence and show the efficiency of the proposed methodology. We also conduct a numerical investigation that focuses on American options on S&P 500 futures contracts.     

Road transport productivity in the sixteenth‐century Low Countries: the case of Brabant, 1450–1650†

Though there is a consensus that transport plays a central role in economic development, for the period before the eighteenth century there is a lack of strategic information for assessing the importance of road transport productivity changes in economic development. Transport prices in particular are crucial missing pieces of the puzzle. Sources rarely reveal information that meets the standards of reliable price history. However, it is possible to create a reliable transport price series on the basis of the transport of millstones to ducal mills in Brabant. Assessing the impact of the ‘transport productivity changes’ that can be inferred from this transport price series is a hazardous exercise. Moreover, as Masschaele has observed, land transport prices closely match general agricultural price trends. Land transport was essentially an agricultural service, determined both by cost (especially horse provender) and income effects. Transport price inflation was not demand‐led. However, while transport did not impede urbanization and economic growth, conversely, in sixteenth‐century Brabant—a highly urbanized region that experienced considerable growth in the volume of land transport—no significant land transport productivity gains were achieved.     

Horizontal mergers between multisided platforms: Insights from Cournot competition

This paper discusses the literature on horizontal mergers between multisided platforms and argues that the Cournot model can provide useful insights into the welfare effects of such mergers. To illustrate those insights, we develop a simple model in which two‐sided platforms offer a homogeneous service and compete à la Cournot, and derive the effects of “average‐marginal‐cost‐preserving” mergers on consumers on both sides of the market. We conclude with a discussion of several research avenues that could be explored to understand better the impact of horizontal mergers between multisided platforms.     

Immigration and the path dependence of education: the case of German‐speakers in São Paulo,Brazil (1840–1920)

This article studies the path dependence of human capital accumulation in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. It focuses on the impacts of German‐speaking immigrants on education through three channels: their share of the population in the nineteenth century, their on‐the‐job skills, and the schools they founded. Using a new dataset based on almanacs from 1873 and 1888, these effects are evaluated for the nineteenth, early twentieth, and early twenty‐first centuries. The article shows that the institutionalized demand for education of these immigrants, reflected by the establishment of schools, was their main contribution to the accumulation of human capital. The effect of German schools on educational levels required a period to mature and dissipated over time. Nevertheless, its influence was substantial at the beginning of the twentieth century, affecting enrolment levels in private and state schools, a result that suggests the existence of spillover and contagion effects. Moreover, current indicators for stocks and flows of human capital in São Paulo are strongly associated with their historical levels. At the same time, this path dependence is conditional on the type of school: while a positive persistence is found for the private system throughout the twentieth century, convergence occurred in state schools.