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81.
Marie E. Walsh Daniel G. de la Torre Ugarte Hosein Shapouri Stephen P. Slinsky 《Environmental and Resource Economics》2003,24(4):313-333
The U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Energyjointly analyzed the economic potential for,and impacts of, large-scale bioenergy
cropproduction in the United States. Anagricultural sector model (POLYSYS) wasmodified to include three potential bioenergycrops
(switchgrass, hybrid poplar, and willow). At farmgate prices of US $2.44/GJ, anestimated 17 million hectares of bioenergycrops,
annually yielding 171 million dry Mg ofbiomass, could potentially be produced at aprofit greater than existing agricultural
usesfor the land. The estimate assumes highproductivity management practices are permittedon Conservation Reserve Program
lands. Traditional crops prices are estimated toincrease 9 to 14 percent above baseline pricesand farm income increases annually
by US $6.0billion above baseline.At farmgate prices of US $1.83/GJ, anestimated 7.9 million hectares of bioenergycrops, annually
yielding 55 million dry Mg ofbiomass, could potentially be produced at aprofit greater than existing agricultural usesfor
the land. The estimate assumes managementpractices intended to achieve highenvironmental benefits on Conservation ReserveProgram
lands. Traditional crops prices areestimated to increase 4 to 9 percent abovebaseline prices and farm income increasesannually
by US $2.8 billion above baseline. 相似文献
82.
It is generally acknowledged that the growth rate of output, the seasonal pattern, and the business cycle are best estimated
simultaneously. To achieve this, we develop an unobserved component time series model for seasonally unadjusted US GDP. Our
model incorporates a Markov switching regime to produce periods of expansion and recession, both of which are characterized
by different underlying growth rates. Although both growth rates are time-varying, they are assumed to be cointegrated. The
analysis is Bayesian, which fully accounts for all sources of uncertainty. Comparison with results from a similar model for
seasonally adjusted data indicates that the seasonal adjustment of the data significantly alters several aspects of the full
model.
First Version Received: January 2001/Final Version Received: February 2002
Send offprint requests to: Rob Luginbuhl?Correspondence to: Rob Luginbuhl 相似文献
83.
Tim Hilken Ko de Ruyter Mathew Chylinski Dominik Mahr Debbie I. Keeling 《Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science》2017,45(6):884-905
Driven by the proliferation of augmented reality (AR) technologies, many firms are pursuing a strategy of service augmentation to enhance customers’ online service experiences. Drawing on situated cognition theory, the authors show that AR-based service augmentation enhances customer value perceptions by simultaneously providing simulated physical control and environmental embedding. The resulting authentic situated experience, manifested in a feeling of spatial presence, functions as a mediator and also predicts customer decision comfort. Furthermore, the effect of spatial presence on utilitarian value perceptions is greater for customers who are disposed toward verbal rather than visual information processing, and the positive effect on decision comfort is attenuated by customers’ privacy concerns. 相似文献
84.
85.
André Roncaglia de Carvalho Rafael S. M. Ribeiro André M. Marques 《International Review of Applied Economics》2018,32(4):546-565
This paper studies the relation between inflation and economic development. The literature is largely silent regarding both the theoretical and empirical perspectives that undeveloped countries endure higher average inflation than developed economies. We present a simple theoretical model linking the inflation phenomenon to the tradition of development economics. Empirical evidence is garnered to test the hypothesis that economic development engenders a downward bias to inflation rates. Through the feasible-GLS estimator in a panel of 65 countries from 2001 to 2011, we aim at listing a number of variables most commonly used to explain differences in the stage of economic development across countries and identifying the most statistically relevant ones to account for differences in inflationary patterns. While our results show that inflation is inversely correlated with the level of the technological content of the economy (measured by share of high-tech exports), human capital and cyclical unemployment, it is directly related to the degree of inflation persistence and terms of trade growth. However, our findings still present an inverse and low correlation between inflation persistence and economic development, implying that development-sensitive variables allowed into the model can only partially account for the differences in inflation at different levels of economic development. 相似文献
86.
Beatriz de Blas 《International Review of Economics & Finance》2010,19(3):366-382
This paper studies the international transmission of productivity and monetary shocks in a general equilibrium two-country monetary model with portfolio rigidities and distribution costs in trade. The model features two types of transport costs (iceberg costs and distribution costs in terms of nontradables) and incomplete markets. The specification employed here is able to generate the domestic liquidity effect, increase in the foreign–domestic interest rate differential, and the nominal depreciation after a monetary injection. Quantitatively, the model with distribution costs as in Burstein, Neves and Rebelo (2003) performs better matching some business cycle moments, but fails to generate the high volatility of exchange rates observed in the data. 相似文献
87.
This paper investigates the impact of complementarity reforms on growth and how it depends on GDP per capita. Based on reform data for six policy areas compiled from various sources during the period 1994–2006 for over 100 countries, we compute composite indicators of reform level and complementarity. We provide qualitative justification for the existence of pair-wise complementarities among policy areas. We then use cross-section and panel data estimates to test the effect of reform level and complementarity on GDP per capita growth. We found reforms to be positively related and their dispersion (or the inverse of complementarity) negatively related to growth, controlling for initial conditions, monetary stability and other structural and institutional variables, as well as endogeneity of reform level and complementarity. We show that the effect of policy complementarity is a stronger condition for sustainable growth in developing than in advanced countries, to conclude that complementary reforms are not a ‘luxury’ for developing countries. 相似文献
88.
In order to address practical questions in credit portfolio management it is necessary to link the cyclical or systematic components of firm credit risk with the firm's own idiosyncratic credit risk as well as the systematic credit risk component of every other exposure in the portfolio. This paper builds on the methodology proposed by Pesaran, Schuermann, and Weiner [Pesaran, M.H., Schuermann, T., and Weiner, S.M., (2004), Modeling regional interdependencies using a global error correcting macroeconometric model, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 22, 2, 129–169.] and supplemented by Pesaran, Schuermann, Treutler and Weiner [Pesaran, M.H., Schuermann, T., Treutler, B., and Weiner, S.M., (2006), Macroeconomic dynamics and credit risk: a global perspective, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Volume 38, Number 5, August 2006, 1211–1261.] which has made a significant advance in credit risk modelling in that it avoids the use of proprietary balance sheet and distance-to-default data, focusing on credit ratings which are more freely available.In this paper a country-specific macroeconometric risk-driver engine which is compatible with and could feed into the GVAR model and framework of PSW (2004) is constructed, using vector error-correcting (VECM) techniques. This allows conditional loss estimation of a South African-specific credit portfolio but also opens the door for credit portfolio modelling on a global scale, as such a model can easily be linked to the GVAR model. The set of domestic factors is extended beyond those used in PSW (2004) in such a way that the risk-driver model is applicable for both retail and corporate credit risk. As such, the model can be applied to a total bank balance sheet, incorporating the correlation and diversification between both retail and corporate credit exposures.Assuming statistical over-identification restrictions, the results indicate that it is possible to construct a South African component for the GVAR model that can easily be integrated into the global component. From a practical application perspective the framework and model is particularly appealing since it can be used as a theoretically consistent correlation model within a South African-specific credit portfolio management tool. 相似文献
89.
We present a model of conflict in which each group decides to claim the country’s income and invest in arms or to accept a
group neutral allocation of income and not invest in arms. Apart from the usual cooperative or conflictual societies, their
strategic choice can result in hierarchically stratified societies in which one group is dominant. We show how the presence
and exploitation of certain types of resources matters for the occurrence of conflict or social hierarchical stratification
and for the possible effects of trust manipulation. In particular we find that, first, robust (encompassing point and lootable)
resource rich economies tend to be conflictual, plantation economies hierarchically stratified and diversified economies cooperative.
Second, foreign intervention, aimed at changing the balance of power in the case of conflict, is most effective in robust
and diffuse resource rich economies. Third, trust manipulation (as a means to counter conflict) is most effective in subsistence
and diffuse resource rich economies. Throughout the article, we cite ample case study and econometric evidence to support
our model. 相似文献
90.
Marco de Pinto 《The Scandinavian journal of economics》2019,121(1):298-325
How are unemployment and output affected if wages are set on the sector level rather than firm level? We take a new look at this question, allowing for heterogeneous firms and rent‐sharing motives. Without these motives, employment and output are lower under sector‐level wage‐setting due to higher wage markups. With rent‐sharing motives, however, firm selection is higher under sector‐level wage‐setting, which tends to increase employment and output, thus counteracting the markup effect. Simulations show that the firm‐selection effect decreases the difference between the two unionization structures substantially but it does not change the signs of the effects on output and employment. 相似文献