How efficient is the market for Australian firms’ earnings information?

We construct a measure of the speed with which forecasts issued by sell-side analysts accurately forecast future annual earnings. Following Marshall, we label this measure earnings information flow timeliness (EIFT). This measure avoids the aggregation problem inherent in price-based measures of information efficiency. We document large variation in EIFT across firm-years, and show that EIFT is positively associated with the extent of analyst following, consistent with increased analyst coverage improving the speed with which earnings-related information is recognised. We also find that EIFT is higher for firm-years classified as ‘bad news’ (i.e., where analysts’ forecasts at the start of the financial period exceed the reported outcome). However, when we separately consider instances where analysts appear to forecast non-GAAP (or ‘street’) earnings rather than GAAP earnings, we find that the greater timeliness of bad news is concentrated among observations where analysts forecast non-GAAP earnings, where unusual items are typically excluded. We conclude that the market for accounting information is more efficient for negative operating outcomes than for negative outcomes reflecting unusual items.     

The rise and rise of IFRS: An examination of IFRS diffusion

We seek to understand the ever-increasing push towards the international harmonization of accounting standards and particularly the inexorable rise of standards produced by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB). While the primary justifications for the increasing recognition given to these standards (IFRS) are economic, we question whether the empirical evidence to date has yielded convincing support for these arguments. We therefore offer an alternative explanation for the origin and diffusion of IFRS that incorporates social and political factors. Outsourcing the manufacture of accounting standards to a single private agency appears to be a rational, lower cost option – lowering both economic and political costs for individual states as long as they continue to retain residual decision rights with respect to the adoption of IFRS. However, such outsourcing must also be perceived to be legitimate. IFRS confer institutionalized legitimacy because they possess three characteristics required of a technology for global governance. These are sponsorship by powerful interest groups/regulators, internationality and plasticity. We therefore conclude that the widespread diffusion today of IFRS can at best be only partially explained as an economically rational phenomenon. Rather, the demand for legitimate action in the face of tightly coupled and complex global markets is at least equally important in generating support for IFRS.     

Behavioral mechanism design: evidence from the modified first-price auctions

This paper tests the behavioral equivalence of a class of strategically-equivalent mechanisms that also do not differ in terms of their procedures. In a private value setting, we introduce a family of mechanisms, so-called Mechanism (α), that generalizes the standard first-price sealed-bid auction. In Mechanism (α), buyers are asked to submit a value which will then be multiplied by α to calculate the bids in the auction. When α =?1, Mechanism (α) is the standard first-price sealed-bid auction. We show that for any α, calculated bids should be identical across mechanisms. We conduct a laboratory experiment to test the behavioral equivalence of this class of mechanisms under different values of α. Even though the procedure and environment do not change across auctions, we do not observe the same bidding behavior across these strategically-equivalent mechanisms. Our research can inform mechanism design literature with respect to the design of optimal mechanisms.     

乔治·梅森大学——“听美国人话，中国转型就不会那么成功”

在人民币汇率问题上，中国希望人民币保持低价值，主要希望以此扩大出口，并消化从农村涌到城市的劳动力。中国在对外出口上的成功有着多方面的原因，不仅仅在于它的低工资和高生产率。人民币汇率在这方面不构成一个主要因素。