Making Good Decisions with Minimal Information: Simultaneous and Sequential Choice

The adaptive pressures facing humans and other animals to make decisions quickly can be met both by increasing internal information-processing speed and by minimizing the amount of information to be used. Here we focus on the latter effect and ask how, and how well, agents can make good decisions with a minimal amount of information, using two specific tasks as examples. When a choice must be made between simultaneously-available options, minimal information in the form of binary recognition (whether or not each item is recognized) can be used in the recognition heuristic to choose effectively. When options are encountered sequentially one at a time, minimal information as to whether or not each option is the best encountered so far is sufficient to guide agents using a simple search-cutoff rule to high performance along several choice criteria. Both of these examples have important economic as well as biological applications, and show the power of simple fast and frugal heuristics to produce good decisions with little information. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The price of Cherokee removal

In this paper, we estimate the social costs and income transfers of Cherokee removal, i.e., “The Trail of Tears.” Our cost estimates provide several new insights into this extensively studied topic. First, our estimate of the number of removal-related fatalities is considerably lower than the commonly accepted figure of 4000. Second, the uncompensated value of ceded Cherokee land in the southeast was the largest cost borne by the Cherokees, followed in magnitude by the value of lost agricultural output due to removal. Third, American taxpayers paid for roughly 44% of the total social costs of removal. Also, the cost burden of Cherokee removal, as a share of 1 year's GDP, was greater for the Cherokees than the cost burden of any major war for the American population.     

Shaping online consumer choice by partitioning the Web

This research explores how partitioning attributes in online search interfaces changes the valuations of those attributes—and impacts subsequent choice—such that attributes that are displayed as separate categories tend to receive greater decision weight than attributes grouped under umbrella categories. Across several choice domains—cars, dates, and hotels—we show that different attribute partitions impact the importance assigned to attributes (Studies 1 and 2), as well as consumer choices (Studies 3 and 4). We argue that these effects are due in part to users' willingness to use the implicit recommendations of interface designers to determine the importance of attributes, a willingness that extends to following explicit recommendations of online agents based on those attributes (Study 5). © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

A natural science approach to investigate cross-cultural managerial creativity

As the relative effectiveness of physical resources decreases toward parity with rivals due to their fungibility, the firm's marketplace position, established by managers with a particular set of inter-culturally attuned set of personal values, may be the key antecedent in creating competitive strength in the firm. The research question addressed is how creative are culturally diverse managers; are managers from certain countries more creative than adaptive?We tested hypotheses in a cross-cultural setting based on the survey responses of 1365 managers operating in eight countries located in four culturally diverse regions of the world.Our study shows that managers are both creative and adaptive but the mixture of creative and adaptive behaviour varies depending on region and country and even within countries. Furthermore, the results confirm that creativity among managers in some countries is similar but large differences also exist between countries.     

Stuck on gold: Real exchange rate volatility and the rise and fall of the gold standard, 1875-1939

Did the gold standard diminish macroeconomic volatility? Supporters thought so, critics thought not, and theory offers ambiguous messages. Hard regimes like the gold standard limit monetary shocks by tying policymakers' hands; but exchange-rate inflexibility compromises shock absorption in a world of real disturbances and nominal stickiness. A model shows how lack of flexibility affects the transmission of terms-of-trade shocks. Evidence from the late nineteenth and early twentieth century exposes a dramatic change. The classical gold standard did absorb shocks, but the interwar gold standard did not, supporting the view that the interwar gold standard was a poor regime choice.     

Deregulating the domestic natural gas market: Conditions and mechanisms

The paper looks at topical points of the formation of the domestic natural gas market, the definitive ones being the rules of interaction between the monopoly company and the independent gas producers. Elaborated corporate interaction rules are presented as a Grid Code. The mechanism of a business game between key domestic gas market players is proposed as a Grid Code development tool.     

A dynamic perspective on the impact of process innovation upon competitive strategies

The paper lays the foundation for building a dynamic theory of the impact of process innovation upon competitive strategies. An innovation is tracked over two and a half decades to observe changing patterns in competition resulting from ongoing innovation development, emerging complementary technologies, and expanding use. The study finds that the innovation created competitive opportunities and threats for both firms that adopted it and those that did not.     

The Determinants of Systematic Risk: A Synthesis

This paper contains a review and synthesis of the theoretical research that has examined the corporate determinats of systematic risk (beta). By delineating the underlying assumptions and by using a consistent notation to summarize the research results, this review is designed to facilitate the beta assessment efforts of financial managers, investment analysts, and academic researchers.     

Max weber revisited: Some lessons from East Asian capitalistic development

Weber's thesis of the incompatibility of the Confucian ethos and rational entrepreneurial capitalism has been challenged by the economic miracles of many East Asian countries. One thesis presented here is that Confucianism is compatible with and has facilitated Asian capitalism by its influence on managerial values and practices. According to Weber, the release of tensions created by Calvinism was an important motivating force in the development of capitalism in the Occident. Confucianism offers a parallel mechanism to the profit-seeking drive in Western capitalism. We show that, in Confucian societies, there also exists tensions — in this case, between ideals and reality. These tensions are released through the Confucian concept of a ceaseless pursuit of renovation, a motivational mechanism for the development of capitalism in East Asian societies that parallels the West. Weber held that the classic model of bureaucracy, with impersonality at its core, is essential to the development and continuation of capitalism. Our second thesis is that humanism is an important element in Confucian bureaucracy and that humanistic bureaucracy can be both effective and efficient for the development of capitalism.