Where to vacation? An agent-based approach to modelling tourist decision-making process

Agent-based models (ABMs) are becoming more relevant in social simulation due to the potential to model complex phenomena that emerge from individual interactions. In tourism research, complexity is a subject of growing interest and researchers start to analyse the tourism system as a complex phenomenon. However, there is little application of ABMs as a tool to explore and predict tourism patterns. The purpose of the paper is to develop an ABM that increases knowledge in tourism research by (i) considering the complexity of tourism phenomenon, (ii) providing tools to explore the complex relations between system components and (iii) giving insights on the functioning of the system and the tourist decision-making process. A theoretical ABM is developed to improve knowledge on tourist decision-making in the selection of a destination to vacation. Tourists’ behaviour, such as individual motivation, and social network influence in the vacation decision-making process are hereby discussed.     

Teaching the history of economic thought

The main purpose of this survey is to present the results of a questionnaire recently sent to historians of economic thought. This questionnaire — presented in the appendix - was devised so as to provide data on the approaches and experiences of teaching the history of economic thought in a wide range of universities throughout the world.

A summary of the most significant results is presented in section 2 of this survey. Section 1 provides a general introduction to the methodological context of the discussion of problems concerning the teaching of the discipline.     

Restoring balance: how consumers orchestrate family care following unplanned disruptions

ABSTRACT

How do consumers orchestrate multiple and complex practices of care when faced with unplanned disruptions to their lives, such as chronic health conditions? We conduct a qualitative study of families where a child was diagnosed with Type-1 diabetes. Inspired by a dance metaphor, we explain how families (1) gather materials for movement, (2) link movements into phrases, and (3) develop an orchestrated style of care as they sense and respond to the dynamic requirements of caregiving when faced with insufficient or unfeasible market solutions. Adding this new perspective to the managerial view used by prior consumer research on family care, we propose an extended perspective on care, which better accounts for how families search to restore life balance in challenging circumstances. This extended perspective illuminates new aspects of consumer engagement with paid and non-paid service providers, and opens avenues for future research in the domain of family care.     

Environmental factors and satisfaction in a specialty store

Given the intense competition experienced in the sector, retailers have been designing strategies to create an environment conducive to consumer satisfaction and purchase, particularly in supermarkets and hypermarkets. This paper develops a conceptualization of customer satisfaction based on field data collected in a specialty store, focusing on the relative importance of the environmental factors on satisfaction. The results show that the most important environmental determinant of customer satisfaction is the variety of products. The help from employees, lighting, layout and design also stand out from the set of stimuli considered.     

Inequality and criminality revisited: further evidence from Brazil

The objective of this study is to shed light on the determinants of criminality rates in Brazil. A panel data model was estimated using Brazilian states’ data. Our main result suggests that income inequality plays an important role in the determination of the crime rate. Furthermore, there are evidence suggesting that both unemployment and urbanization rates are positively related to crime. Based on a GMM approach we find the existence of an “inertial effect” on criminality. Besides that, the GMM results show that public security spending is effective in reducing criminality rates. Contrary to the common wisdom, we could not find evidence that poverty increases violent crimes. Finally, we have evidence that income inequality Granger causes crime, but not the reverse.     

Workers or Employers: Who is Shaping Wage Inequality?

An extensive micro data set matching firms, establishments and their employees, is used to study the determinants of earnings inequality in Portugal and its evolution from 1983 to 1992, with the Theil index, its decomposition, and the decomposition of its change as tools of analysis. The relevance of both worker and employer attributes in shaping earnings inequality and its trend is quantified. The impact of the firm on wage inequality in a European country is compared to the situation in the USA, and the results suggest that a more regulated and centralized European bargaining system might reduce the scope for firm action. A profile of an economy undergoing modernization, where rising labour market inequality signalled the lack of an adequate labour force, can be drawn, with the minimum wage having nonetheless a certain narrowing effect on the earnings distribution.     

The strategic strength of weak signal analysis

Foresight can be seen as a social cognition process involving a complex set of methods and interactive processes intended to assist policy in becoming more adaptive and forward-oriented in unpredictable environments. As a form of foresight raw material, “weak signals” can be thought of as gross, unstructured, fragmented, incomplete and inadvertent environmental data that may be refined into valuable information regarding context and further be articulated into strategically actionable knowledge. As advanced indicators that precede significant discrete one-off events and/or novel developments in the rate and direction of trends, their analysis has the potential to facilitate the real-time alignment between organisational decision-making and changing external circumstances. These predictors of future change pose fundamental problems of identification and interpretation and represent a challenge to established mental models. Thus, the practical significance of weak signals is that they can be transformed into meaningful insight for policy action. Such a value, however, does not materialise automatically. Realising this potential requires a degree of tolerance and fluidity of the collective cognitive frameworks by which weak signals can be apprehended, assessed and acted upon. This paper aims at covering the scope of perceptions and actions typically involved in the tracing and tracking of this shaping process.     

BLOCOS URBANISM: Capitalism and Modularity in the Making of Contemporary Luanda

In this article we portray and unpack the fabric of urban expansion in contemporary Luanda. In doing so, we examine interdependencies and complementarities between the organization of oil extraction off the coast of Angola, the emergence of particular modalities of modernist city planning for the expansion of its capital city, and the proliferation of cement blocks in the making of new urban forms throughout its burgeoning peripheries. By showing how urban development has unfolded through the interconnected realization of multiple kinds of systematizing blocks—namely oil blocks, city blocks and cement blocks—we analyse key material components in the production of new markets and urban spaces in the Angolan capital. By tracing forms of capitalism and modularity in the making of contemporary Luanda, we develop the concept of blocos urbanism to draw attention to modes of standardization and the production of legibility in contemporary processes of urbanization. Through this study, we aim to contribute to the conceptual apparatus for deciphering our global urban condition.     

Fashion consumer profiles in the Portuguese market: involvement,innovativeness, self‐expression and impulsiveness as segmentation criteria

This study identified fashion consumer profiles among Portuguese young adults. The work was based on four constructs: fashion involvement, fashion innovativeness, self‐expression through fashion products and impulsiveness. Another purpose of this study was to test these instruments in this cultural context in order to contribute to the generalizability of the scales. A cluster analysis uncovered three groups: Moderates, Apathetic and Enthusiasts. On the whole, this study proposes a new way of segmenting Portuguese fashion consumers and demonstrates that the four constructs employed can be used in different cultural contexts.     

Amino acid formula as a new strategy for diagnosing cow’s milk allergy in infants: is it cost-effective?

Aims: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a new strategy that uses an amino acid formula in the elimination diet of infants with suspected cow’s milk allergy (CMA).

Materials and methods: This pharmacoeconomic study was developed from the perspective of the Brazilian Public Healthcare System. The new strategy proposes using an amino acid formula in the diagnostic elimination diet of infants (≤24 months) with suspected CMA. The rationale is that infants who do not respond to the amino acid formula do not suffer from CMA. Patients with a positive oral challenge test receive a therapeutic elimination diet based on Brazilian Food Allergy Guidelines. This approach was compared to the current recommendations of the Brazilian Food Allergy Guidelines. A decision model was constructed using TreeAge Pro 2012 software. Model inputs were based on a literature review and the opinions of a panel of experts. A univariate sensitivity analysis of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios was performed.

Results: The mean cost per patient of the new amino acid formula strategy was R$3,341.57, while the cost of the current Brazilian guidelines strategy was R$3,641.08. The mean number of symptom-free days per patient, which was used as an indicator of effectiveness, was 900.6 and 875.7 days, respectively. The new strategy is, therefore, dominant. In the sensitivity analysis, the dominance was maintained with parameter variation.

Limitations: In the absence of information in the literature, some premises were defined by a panel of specialists.

Conclusions: The new strategy, which uses an amino acid formula in the elimination diagnostic diet followed by an oral food challenge, is a dominant pharmacoeconomic approach that has a lower cost and results in an increased number of symptom-free days.