TALKING LESS AND MOVING THE MARKET MORE: EVIDENCE FROM THE ECB AND THE FED

This paper examines and compares the communication strategies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, and their effectiveness. First, we find that the surprise components of both monetary policy actions and statements have important but differing effects on asset prices, with unexpected communication having a much greater impact on longer‐term interest rates. Second, both the ECB and the Fed have proven to be equally successful in moving their domestic asset prices using either monetary policy or news shocks. However, the response of the American yield curve to the surprise component of Fed's statements is larger than the reaction of the European term structure to ECB's announcements. This result is intimately related to the amplitude of the policy rate cycle that is much larger in the US than in the euro area combined with the bounded support of the news shock. Third, we analyze the cross‐effects and show that the Fed has been more able to move the European interest rates of all maturities than the ECB to move American rates. This finding is tied to the predominance of dollar fixed income assets rather than to an attempt of the ECB to mimic the Fed.     

The demand for tobacco in post-unification Italy

This paper studies the demand for tobacco products in post-unification Italy. We construct a very detailed panel data set of yearly consumption in the 69 Italian provinces from 1871 to 1913 and use it to estimate the demand for tobacco products. We find support for the Becker and Murphy (J Polit Econ 96:675–700, 1988) rational addiction model. We also find that, in the period considered, tobacco was a normal good in Italy: aggregate tobacco consumption increased with income. Subsequently, we consider separately the four types of products which aggregate tobacco comprises (fine-cut tobacco, snuff, cigars, and cigarettes), and tentatively suggest that habit formation was a stronger factor on the persistence of consumption than physical addiction. The paper ends by showing that the introduction of the Bonsack machine in the early 1890s did not coincide with changes in the structure of the demand for tobacco, suggesting cost-driven technological change.     

On the Relative Optimality of Environmental Policy Instruments: An Application of the Work of Alberto Alesina

We study the issue of optimality of policies devoted to environmental goals, building upon the recent and interesting work by Alesina and Passarelli (2010) and extending their analysis to the more general framework set up by Weitzman (The Review of Economic Studies 41: 477-491, 1974). We illustrate instruments that governments have at their disposal to reduce polluting emissions, and we point out the economic implications that may arise from the overlapping regulation through both instruments in the European context. We review the literature on political determination of environmental regulation. On the basis of existing literature, we show that political factors are more important than economic ones in explaining why particular instruments are implemented for certain problems (Hepburn et al. Climate Policy 6: 137–160, 2006). We recognize Alesina’s contribution which states that environmental policy, and the decision to adopt one tool instead of another, is subject to a complex political process. Governments are subject to pressure from politicians, households, and firms because their decisions imply winners and losers. Then, we focus in detail on the work by Alesina and Passarelli (2010) who consider which policy tool and at what level would be chosen by majority voting to reduce polluting emissions; they find out that even if a tax is in general superior to quantity based mechanisms (quotas and tradable permits), the majority may strategically choose a quantity mode in order to charge the minority a larger share of the cost for polluting emissions reduction. We extend Alesina’s analysis, focusing on the optimality of price-based mechanisms, since it is not always the case that price instruments are more efficient than quantity instruments. To this aim, we explicitly make use of Weitzman results (The Review of Economic Studies 41: 477–491, 1974), which suggest that if costs are highly nonlinear compared to benefits, then price-type regulation is more efficient, while if costs are close to linear, then quantity-type regulation is more efficient. We cast Alesina’s analysis in the European context, analyzing potential voting outcomes, assuming that EU countries can be arranged according to different criteria. We find that depending on the empirical distribution of voting countries, Alesina’s voting procedure leads to interesting different outcomes.     

The communication in the actual socio-economic environment

The communication, joined with all its problems, became the topic for interesting studies during the mid of 90s. This attention was due to the publication of＂Being Digital＂, wrote by Nicholas Negroponte, the first book that analyzed the communication environment in a comprehensive way. The novelty of this original book, which was immediately perceived by both the scientific and socio-economic environment, was twofold： The forecast of the revolutionary impact of digital technologies applied to the communication and the subsequent modified scenario. Nevertheless, the described scenario was contradicted or confirmed several times during last years.
The linkage between communication and socio-economic environment, after the publication of that book, represented a special focus for the scientific society since the beginning of the new millennium. The evolution of technologies involved several structural components in many different phases during last years and generated a lot of deep changes in a short time. These developing conditions made really difficult any forecasting attempt about the evolution of each technological component and, consequently, any reliable scenario for the communication environment.
The functional update of existing technologies leaded to the appearance of a new medium： Internet. This medium started with revolutionary peculiarities： low access and operating costs, multimediality, bidirectional way of usage and, above all, planetary target. The new communication tool seems to be a good candidate to substitute many of the former media or, at least, to reduce their usage in a meaningful way. Vice versa, the socio-economic effect of Internet was very weak： The new medium appears as simply added to the previous shape without meaningful influences on the diffusion of traditional media.
Nevertheless, the advantages offered by the technological innovation was not reserved only to Internet, but deeply changed all the media influencing particularly their way of supplying service. The most meaningful effects of these innovations involved both the diffusion systems and trading approach so generating a special attention also by politic environments.
The final objective of this paper is to analyze the evolution of the communication environment due to the innovation and to depict the actual communication offer. This approach will be useful to verify the conditions for reliable definition of scenarios.     

Words that shake traders : The stock market's reaction to central bank communication in real time

This paper investigates the effects of Federal Reserve's decisions and statements on U.S. stock and volatility indices (Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ 100, S&P 500, and VIX) using a high-frequency event-study analysis. I find that both the surprise component of policy actions and official communication have statistically significant and economically relevant effects on equity indices, with statements having a much greater explanatory power of the reaction of stock prices to monetary policy. For instance, around 90% of the explainable variation in S&P 500 is due to the surprise component of Fed's statements. This paper also shows that equity indices tend to incorporate FOMC monetary surprises within 40 min from the announcement release. Finally, I find that these results are robust along several dimensions. In particular, I consider different estimators, such as the Generalized Empirical Likelihood, and I extend the sample to include the recent period of heightened financial stress. This sensitivity analysis corroborates that central bank communication about its future policy intentions is a key driver of stock returns.     

Analysing Tax–Benefit Reforms Using Non‐Parametric Methods*

Static tax–benefit microsimulation models (MSMs) are widely used and well‐regarded tools for public policy analysis, but it is essential to use them very carefully. This paper focuses on the analysis of MSM output, suggesting the use of non‐parametric methods as a useful, informative and relatively straightforward complement to detect effects not always captured by measures often used to present MSM results. Non‐parametric methods are used here to analyse the output of an MSM applied to the 1998 Italian personal income tax reform, the main change in which concerned the tax schedule: the first tax rate was increased from 10 per cent to 18.5 per cent and the top one was reduced by 4.5 percentage points. Non‐parametric methods highlight that the effects of this reform were very different for different types of households, with low‐income pensioner households among the main losers. Results are checked for robustness by standard statistical methods and compared with empirical results obtainable using quintile histograms.     

An integrated approach to supply chain risk analysis

Despite the increasing attention that supply chain risk management is receiving by both researchers and practitioners, companies still lack a risk culture. Moreover, risk management approaches are either too general or require pieces of information not regularly recorded by organisations. This work develops a risk identification and analysis methodology that integrates widely adopted supply chain and risk management tools. In particular, process analysis is performed by means of the standard framework provided by the Supply Chain Operations Reference Model, the risk identification and analysis tasks are accomplished by applying the Risk Breakdown Structure and the Risk Breakdown Matrix, and the effects of risk occurrence on activities are assessed by indicators that are already measured by companies in order to monitor their performances. In such a way, the framework contributes to increase companies’ awareness and communication about risk, which are essential components of the management of modern supply chains. A base case has been developed by applying the proposed approach to a hypothetical manufacturing supply chain. An in-depth validation will be carried out to improve the methodology and further demonstrate its benefits and limitations. Future research will extend the framework to include the understanding of the multiple effects of risky events on different processes.