行为决策理论及决策行为实证研究方法探讨

作者对行为决策理论发展的历程及各阶段中决策行为的实证研究方法进行了梳理,发现决策行为的实证研究方法在很大程度上决定了行为决策理论发展的进程。在对决策行为一般实证研究方法及其特点进行分析之后,作者认为观察法较适用于决策行为的初步探索性研究;调查法则较适用于一般决策行为的总体状况和特征的研究;如果理论假说源于决策者某些特定的、深层次的主观动机,假设的证实或者证伪又需要大量的检验,实验法的优势比较明显。为了取得对本研究的实证效果,这里对如何将实验法应用于中国投资者决策行为研究做了一次实证性尝试,以供学术争鸣。     

PRICES AND PRICE ANALYSIS IN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

The paper discusses the role of prices in the framework of the new System of National Accounts (SNA) in terms of three major uses: (1) deflation, (2) price indicators, and (3) price analysis. Following a brief review of the price and quantity measures required by the new SNA with its emphasis on deflation of commodity flows and input-output accounts, in addition to the more conventional deflation of final demand categories, the paper discusses some of the conceptual, methodological and data problems involved in implementing the various uses of prices in the new SNA. Implementing the use of prices as deflators depends, in part, on the concept of output selected (national versus domestic; gross versus net), and which of six concepts of valuation, ranging from purchasers'value to true factor cost, is used. Some of the difficulties in deflating nonmarket flows (e.g., interplant transfers) and industry value added, based on the double deflation method, are discussed. In concept price deflators, which have shifting weights, cannot be used as price indicators, which should have fixed weights. In practice, this is often disregarded and the deflators are used as price indicators. The paper support the SNA recommendation for the development of price indexes with fixed weights to be used as price indicators, in addition to the implicit price deflators. Research in the United States indicates that differences in weights can result in different price measures for various subperiods, components of demand and sector output. Periodic revisions in weights to provide more current fixed weights for price and quantity indexes in each subperiod may minimize the problem but it introduces a new problem—lack of comparability with the constant price tables in the SNA which have fixed weights for the entire period. The new SNA provides a comprehensive and integrated framework for price analysis including the analysis of the structure of aggregate price changes, the industrial origin of final demand prices, and the impact of price change in one sector of the economy on the rest of the economy. Some major gaps which need to be overcome in order to implement the use of the new SNA for price analysis include the development of industry capital stock estimates, separate estimates of proprietors’income, reconciliation of value added and distribution share estimates, and the development of a wide variety of information to supplement the conventional input-output tables in the SNA. Implementing the various objectives of price measures within the framework of the accounts will require a number of improvements in existing price measures and expanding the scope of coverage. “List” prices should be superseded by “transactions” prices and better techniques and data need to be developed to provide for quality adjustment of prices. Coverage will need to be expanded to include services, freight rates, trade margins, government expenditures, and also fill in gaps for many manufactured products. Finally, where possible, use of unit values as price indexes or deflators, e.g., imports and exports, should be replaced by direct price measures.     

许宁宁谈《服务贸易协议》

2007年1月，东盟系列峰会和东亚峰会在菲律宾第二大城市宿务举行，会议取得了丰硕成果。对内，东盟在加强组织机构、确定远景目标和解决共同关注的一些地区问题上取得了重要进展；对外，东盟与各对话国在政治、经济、社会文化等方面的合作更加深入、广泛和务实。具体到中国-东盟自由贸易区的建设，更是取得了重要突破，双方签署了中国-东盟自由贸易区《服务贸易协议》，标志着中国-东盟自贸区的建设向前迈出关键一步，为如期全面建成自由贸易区奠定了基础。会议刚刚结束，被媒体称为“中国-东盟首席商务专家”的中国-东盟商务理事会中方秘书处副秘书长许宁宁教授就接受了本刊的采访，他表示：“《服务贸易协议》的签署，对中国-东盟自由贸易区的建设起到了极大的推动作用。”[编者按]     

基于VB解初等超越方程的一种精确算法

将超越函数用其幂级数展开式的前n项和近似代替,将超越方程的求解转化为代数方程的求解问题,避免了很多复杂的数学计算.文章结合二分法基于VisulBasic6.0语言编写了求解代数方程的程序,其求解精确度远远高于用Mathmatica计算软件所计算的结果.     

上市公司股权结构与股利政策相关性实证分析——西北五省区的数据

本文以2002年~2004年西北五省区有股利分配的上市公司作为样本,采用多元回归分析方法,验证股权结构自变量与股利之间的线性关系,用非线性回归方法检验未通过线性关系检验的自变量与股利之间的关系。结果发现,西北五省区股利偏低,股东对现金股利有不同偏好。     

SLP法在化工厂总平面布置中的应用——工业工程专业优秀毕业设计介绍

介绍了如何应用SLP法，进行化工厂总平面布置设计的过程──基本要素分析、物流分析、作业单位之间非物流相互关系分析、总平面布置等。     

衡阳市农产品加工业现状与对策研究

文章通过调查衡阳市的农产品加工业现状,结合政府相关部门提供的资料,分析了衡阳市龙头企业在经济发展中的作用及农产品加工业现状形成的原因,并提出解决问题的对策。     

互联网网络安全性及其对策

近年来,随着互联网的迅速发展和壮大,网络的安全成了迫不及待需要解决的问题。文章分析了目前危害网络安全的一些主要因素和方式,并有针对性地提出了解决网络安全问题的方法和切入点。在利益驱动下,网络安全事故今后将更加频繁、隐蔽和复杂,网络安全问题需要不断的探索并解决。     

立体停车库及其设计要点

解决大、中城市汽车停车难的出路在于建造机械化立体停车库．介绍了各类立体停车库的结构、控制系统及其特点，给出了立体停车库的主要性能指标，并对立体停车库的设计要点进行了探讨     

提高辽阳市园林绿化水平对策研究

本文在研究总结辽阳市园林绿化成就与经验的基础上 ,分析论证了辽阳市园林绿化建设存在的问题和薄弱环节及其发展目标 ,提出了辽阳市在争创全国卫生模范城的同时 ,如何进一步提高园林绿化水平的主要对策。