Diseases, infection dynamics, and development

The relationship between health and development is a subject of ongoing debate. This paper contributes to the debate by proposing a general equilibrium theory of infectious disease transmission, prevention investment, and rational behavior. Diseases cause premature death, labor productivity loss and lower quality of life. Higher disease prevalence lowers the average saving-investment propensity. The model offers two insights. First, infectious disease can plausibly generate an unconventional growth trap where income alone cannot push an economy out of underdevelopment. Second, even when countries converge to the same balanced growth path, the disease ecology significantly impairs the pace of economic development.     

Can perpetual learning explain the forward-premium puzzle?

Under rational expectations and risk neutrality the linear projection of exchange-rate change on the forward premium has a unit coefficient. However, empirical estimates of this coefficient are significantly less than one and often negative. We show that replacing rational expectations by discounted least-squares (or “perpetual”) learning generates a negative bias that becomes strongest when the fundamentals are strongly persistent, i.e. close to a random walk. Perpetual learning can explain the forward-premium puzzle while simultaneously replicating other features of the data, including positive serial correlation of the forward premium and disappearance of the anomaly in other forms of the test.     

Political competitiveness and the private–public structure of public expenditure: a model and empirics for the Indian States

Studies of government size usually try to identify the factors that explain what parts of economic activity are brought within the public sector and what parts are left strictly in private hands. Modern governments are now so large that the question of what determines the private/public composition, or privateness, of public expenditure is of comparable importance for understanding the role of government in society. In this paper, we use a model of the composition of public budgets to uncover the importance of electoral competitiveness and other factors in the evolution of the privateness of public expenditure across the Indian states. These states vary widely in their socioeconomic characteristics while sharing a common political heritage based on parliamentary government. New measures of public expenditure on private targetable goods and of electoral competitiveness at the Indian state level accompany the paper along with a primer on Indian public finance accounting practices in an Online Appendix. The empirical analysis shows that the degree of privateness in India’s more developed states falls substantially with greater political competition and with rising incomes, while in the less developed states it responds more weakly to these key factors and in some cases even inversely.

     

Robust Hierarchical Bayes Small Area Estimation for the Nested Error Linear Regression Model

Standard model‐based small area estimates perform poorly in presence of outliers. Sinha & Rao ( 2009 ) developed robust frequentist predictors of small area means. In this article, we present a robust Bayesian method to handle outliers in unit‐level data by extending the nested error regression model. We consider a finite mixture of normal distributions for the unit‐level error to model outliers and produce noninformative Bayes predictors of small area means. Our modelling approach generalises that of Datta & Ghosh ( 1991 ) under the normality assumption. Application of our method to a data set which is suspected to contain an outlier confirms this suspicion, correctly identifies the suspected outlier and produces robust predictors and posterior standard deviations of the small area means. Evaluation of several procedures including the M‐quantile method of Chambers & Tzavidis ( 2006 ) via simulations shows that our proposed method is as good as other procedures in terms of bias, variability and coverage probability of confidence and credible intervals when there are no outliers. In the presence of outliers, while our method and Sinha–Rao method perform similarly, they improve over the other methods. This superior performance of our procedure shows its dual (Bayes and frequentist) dominance, which should make it attractive to all practitioners, Bayesians and frequentists, of small area estimation.     

Rational functions: an alternative approach to asset pricing

This paper shows that asset prices are linear polynomials of various underlying explanatory factors and asset returns being ratios of these polynomials, are rational functions that do not add linearly when averaging. Hence, average returns should be modeled based on stock prices. However, continuous returns may be treated as approximately linear across time and modeled directly. Our new Rational Function (RF) models, empirically outperform the traditional asset pricing models like the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Fama–French three and five-factor models for both average and continuous returns. Moreover, the RF theory also provides a model to estimate the asset volumes. The average change in asset volumes together with average returns provide the estimates for average change in market values of assets. Thus, the RF model approach can be used to select assets that provide either highest returns for profit maximization or highest change in market values for wealth maximization for given levels of risk.     

Understanding corporate B2B web sites' effectiveness from North American and European perspective

The globalization of economic activities has led multinational business-to-business (B2B) firms to use their corporate web sites extensively to communicate with their stakeholders. Using a field study of 368 business customers, this paper examines three factors of information that influence corporate web sites' effectiveness in a B2B context and whether these factors differ by web site user's national origin. Results indicate that informativeness of a corporate web site is important for both North American and European visitors. Quality of information is important for European users but not an important aspect for North American users. Usability is the most important factor for North American users but it is not important for European users. Implications of these results are discussed for managerial practices and further research.     

Bank-based versus market-based financial systems: A growth-theoretic analysis

We study bank-based and market-based financial systems in an endogenous growth model. Lending to firms is fraught with moral hazard as owner-managers may reduce investment profitability to enjoy private benefits. Bank monitoring partially resolves the agency problem, while market-finance is more ‘hands-off’. A bank-based or market-based system emerges from firm-financing choices. Neither system is unequivocally better for growth, which crucially depends on the efficiency of financial and legal institutions. But a bank-based system outperforms a market-based one along other dimensions. Investment and per capita income are higher, and income inequality lower, under a bank-based system. Bank-based systems are also more conducive for broad-based industrialization.     

Best foot forward or best for last in a sequential auction?

Should a seller with private information sell the best or worst goods first? Considering the sequential auction of two stochastically equivalent goods, we find that the seller has an incentive to impress buyers by selling the better good first because the seller's sequencing strategy endogenously generates correlation in the values of the goods across periods. When this impression effect is strong enough, selling the better good first is the unique pure‐strategy equilibrium. By credibly revealing to all buyers the seller's ranking of the goods, an equilibrium strategy of sequencing the goods reduces buyer information rents and increases expected revenues in accordance with the linkage principle.     

Pollution Haven and Factor Endowment Hypotheses Revisited: Evidence from India

Journal of Quantitative Economics - What happens to the environment when international trade is liberalized is a matter of debate. Two conflicting hypotheses emerge from the debate. The...     

Communication and authority with a partially informed expert

A sender‐receiver game a la Crawford‐Sobel is analyzed where the sender has expertise on some but not all the payoff‐relevant factors. This residual uncertainty can either improve (even allow full revelation) or worsen the quality of transmitted information depending on a statistic called the effective bias. For symmetrically distributed residual uncertainty or quadratic loss functions, (i) the quality of information transmission is independent of the riskiness of residual uncertainty, (ii) it may be suboptimal to allocate authority to the informed player, (iii) despite players' preferences being arbitrarily close, it is impossible to assert that the receiver prefers delegation over authority or vice versa.