全球经济滞胀风险成因及前景

当前全球通胀压力不断加大,从欧盟的情况来看,由于减碳力度加大,碳价及能源价格暴涨正在推动电价飙升,多国PPI突破10%,创近30年之最;从美国情况来看,政策刺激力度超过次贷危机,短期内需求扩张推升了通胀;从生产要素看,疫情下的供应链中断叠加油气价格暴涨,各国都面临要素成本上升的问题;从不可控因素看,极端天气变化导致全球食品价格大幅上涨。在通胀压力与日俱增的同时,全球经济在短暂修复后出现放缓的趋势,呈现出滞胀的特征。为了避免经济滞胀向中长期演化,需要加强国际政策合作。     

“双循环”新发展格局下经济增长动力研究——基于TFP分解的视角

利用全球投入产出表数据,基于投入产出的优化模型计算全要素生产率(TFP)增长率,并将其分解为三种效应:技术进步效应、国内需求效应与贸易条件效应,以此考察新世纪以来的中国经济增长动力,为"双循环"新发展格局下的经济增长途径选择提供参考。研究发现:技术进步是中国TFP增长的主要动力,技术进步速率的下降是我国经济增长放缓的重要原因;2008年以后,技术进步效应对TFP增长的贡献在快速下降,而国内需求效应和贸易条件效应的支撑作用未能有效维持TFP增长率保持此前高位;对技术效应的产业结构分解可知,我国的比较优势在于制造业和仓储物流等行业,比较劣势在于产业链上游的原材料、基础材料制造等行业。反事实分析表明,保持人口增长是提振国内需求效应,促进TFP增长的重要动力。当前我国"双循环"新发展格局的实现瓶颈主要在于内外需求不足和技术进步速率下降,通过产业政策加强协同创新、短板创新,合理调整生育政策,可以切实推动"双循环"新发展格局下我国经济的高质量发展。     

入世与我国文化产业发展面临的问题和对策

<正> 入世后,我国的文化及其产业面临的问题可能还是比较多的。首先我们要搞清中国文化产业所受到的最大的影响是什么?最大的影响是中国文化以及与之相关联的文化产业将不可避免地要受到一系列挑战,今后应该怎么发展,需要我们认真地加以分析和研究,挑战可能有很多,比如说对我们传统文化的挑战,对文化管理方式的挑战,对我们文化市场的挑战。再深一层说,就是对于与文化     

精度"过碾"与精磨"过度"

商品大米在流通环节中，普遍精度“过碾”和精磨“过度”。本文对此究其产生的原因及其危害性，呼吁坚持精度标准，适度精磨，提高碾米的社会效益和经济效益。     

中国入世五周年:回顾与展望

入世五年来,中国用自己的实践和不懈的努力在WTO中树立了一个“重承诺、负责任、守信用”的大国形象。中国经济发展的成功不仅使中国对外开放进入了一个新时代,而且也促进了全球经济的繁荣,激励了全世界其他发展中国家加速向前发展的动力和信心。2006年12月11日之后,中国入世将迎来后过渡期,这既是一个阶段终点,也是一个新的起点。进入后过渡期的一个最重要标志是中国将从入世承诺约束下的开放转向WTO框架协议约束下的整体开放。因此,后过渡期应对入世的工作更复杂、更繁重、要求更高,我们绝不能因为目前国内产业尚未受到严重影响而放松警惕。后过渡期“进一步提高对外开放水平”的关键和核心是开放的选择问题,包括开放的领域、程度、时间表及进程把握。一个基本原则是从规避风险或风险最小化的角度,积极稳妥地采取开放措施。     

Co-production of service innovations through dynamic capability enhancement

The main aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of co-production practices with customers on service innovation. Specifically, we sought to determine whether dynamic capabilities (the specific abilities a company has to shape, reshape, configure, and reconfigure idiosyncratic assets to respond to changing technologies and markets) could mediate the effect of co-production on service innovation. In this paper, we examine the factors that could influence co-production practices and determine whether organizational commitment moderates the effect of co-production practice on an organization's dynamic capabilities. Using a survey approach of Taiwanese firms, we showed that dynamic capability fully mediates the effects of co-production practice on service innovation and that market orientation and customer matching have a significant influence on co-production practices. In addition, this study has empirically demonstrated that service firms would be well advised to engage in developing service innovation through enhancing their own dynamic capabilities.     

Reformulating Environmentally Constrained Traffic Equilibrium via a Smooth Gap Function

Various government laws have recently been enacted to alleviate the environmental deterioration of transportation systems. Environmental constraint is a valid means to explicitly reflect various environmental protection requirements imposed by the government. In this paper, we examine the environmentally constrained traffic equilibrium problem (EC-TEP), which is a fundamental tool for modeling and evaluating environmental protection requirements. Specifically, we provide an equivalent reformulation for the EC-TEP. The proposed reformulation adapts the concept of gap function to simultaneously reformulate the nonlinear complementarity conditions associated with the generalized user equilibrium conditions, environmental constraints, and conservation constraints as an equivalent unconstrained optimization problem. This gap function reformulation has two desirable features: (1) it can handle a general environmental constraint structure (linear or nonlinear; link-based or area-based) and a general link and route cost structure, enhancing the modeling adaptability and flexibility; (2) it is smooth and unconstrained, permitting a number of existing efficient algorithms for its solution. A gradient-based solution algorithm with a self-regulated averaging stepsize scheme is customized to solve the reformulated unconstrained optimization problem. Numerical examples are also provided to demonstrate the modeling flexibility of the proposed EC-TEP reformulation.     

An Empirical Analysis of Synthesizing the Effects of Festival Quality,Emotion, Festival Image and Festival Satisfaction on Festival Loyalty: A Case Study of Macau Food Festival

This study aims to examine the interrelationships among the festival quality dimensions, festival quality, emotion, festival image, festival satisfaction and festival loyalty. Analysis of data from 454 attendees in the 12^th Macau Food Festival indicates that the proposed model fits the data. The result of this study will assist festival management in developing and implementing market‐orientated service strategies to increase quality and image, and enhance the emotion and satisfaction of attendees in order to attain their loyalty toward food festivals. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spillover Effects of Internal Control Weakness Disclosures: The Role of Audit Committees and Board Connections

We find that firms are less likely to report an internal control material weakness (as mandated by the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act) in a given year if one of their audit committee members is concurrently on the board of a firm that disclosed a material weakness within the prior three years. We find a similar spillover effect for financial restatement disclosures. The spillover from material weakness disclosures is evident only if a shared director has more experience with the disclosing firm or can channel more information about the disclosed material weakness. Our findings suggest that prior director experiences outside the firm influence the work of audit committees inside the firm. One rationale is that a director's prior experience with an adverse disclosure helps diffuse important insights and serves as a catalyst for improvements in a firm's internal control and financial reporting practices. An alternative explanation, which we cannot dismiss, holds that a director's prior experience helps a firm to underreport material weaknesses and financial restatements without any attendant improvements in the underlying practices.     

The trend of the Gini coefficient of China (1978–2010)

ABSTRACT

This study proposes a new approach to analyse the effects of an overlap term on the calculation of the overall Gini coefficient and estimates China’s Gini ratios since the adoption of the economic reform and open-door policies. A decomposition of the Chinese Gini coefficient for 1978–2010 reveals that the key factor contributing to income inequalities is the income disparity between rural and urban inhabitants. We further investigate the features of this income inequality between rural and urban areas and employ statistical approaches to evaluate the effects of urbanisation and rural-to-urban average income on nationwide income inequality. The results show that accelerating the pace of urbanisation is mainly responsible for decreasing China’s income disparity. Drawing on these results, we conclude with suggestions for related policies.