当前美国经济与香港

香港经济是以摆脱亚洲金融风暴困境、全面复苏的态势进入新世纪的第一年的.香港在1997年遭受亚洲金融风暴的严重袭击,1998年是几十年所仅见的负增长,为-5.3%;1999年恢复正增长,为3.1%;2000年头三季都为两位数的增长,分别为14.2%、10.9%和10.4%,全年预计增长10%以上.在这基础上,香港社会普遍预期今年会有4%到5%的增长,这自然是稳定的和相当可观的增长.     

待积累型人力资本估值方法——基于分成制教育金融合约中供资方的视角

分成制教育金融合约订立的前提是人力资本积累投融资双方对积累者未来价值的估算。由于待积累型人力资本估值要牵涉到“积累”和“实现”两个阶段，期间要面对积累当事人是否努力、客观能力，以及市场对人才的认可等几方面的风险。其复杂性和不确定性有甚于现存的“物型”资产估值、“混合型资产”估值，以及传统的“成品型人力资本”估值。寻找目标估值方法的法门在于比较前后两者内在规定性的异同。并对具有相类似估值基础所采用的基因性估值方法加以恰当吸收。在估值研究的初级阶段，剔除不确定性太强的估值因素，尽力借助能够量化的指标进行模拟，有利于尽快展示“待积累型人力资本”估值问题的独特性。     

从鑫茂工业物业管理看工业管理体制改革

我国工业管理体制建立于50年代,它的主要特点是,把企业按照行业、行政级别,划分为工业公司、工业局、工业部,企业内部对口设置对应的管理机构,对企业进行纵向管理.这种体制的弊病是:企业被置于政府一个部门的地位上,它必须代行政府的诸多职能.从而造成国有企业小而全,大而全、企业办社会的弊端,抑制了企业间的竞争,压制了企业的活力.鑫茂工业物业管理体系是计划经济向市场经济过渡背景下我国工业管理体制的一种创新;它适应了国有企业改革的历史潮流,顺应了社会主义市场经济的发展规律,有力地推动了我国工业管理体制的改革.     

实现税收代际公平目标的国际经验及启示

在可持续发展思想的指导下,税收的公平原则内涵应发生改变,即税收的公平原则必须引入代际公平理论,注意和追求世代间的税收公平。借鉴西方发达国家的经验,我国应选择构建绿色税收体系及开征遗产税这两条路径实现税收代际公平目标。     

近代天津堂会经营模式探析

天津近代的堂会属于市场规则主导下的纯粹的经营活动:演员在堂会演出中不仅获得了丰厚的经济回报,而且借名角同台演出切磋技艺提高了表演水平;堂会主人借堂会的影响力扩大了声望、提高了人气;观众则欣赏到了高水平的演出.堂会对于天津演出市场在近代的形成与发展起到了一定的促进作用.但由于堂会主办者的特殊地位与身份,他们在催生与扩大堂会演出市场的同时,也在一定程度上伤害了艺人和艺术.     

A Theory of Tenure for the Teaching University

In this paper we challenge the presumption that academic tenure is an outmoded institutional form for the small teaching university. Starting from the premise that tenure is granted on the basis of research (reflected in a minimum required number of publications), we argue that tenure has value for a university concerned solely with teaching (as opposed to research) because research enhances human capital and incentives for its accumulation are necessary to improve the quality of faculty teaching over the lifecycle. However, while human capital accumulation and research effort create future value, contracting on either basis is not feasible because neither can be measured objectively. Numbers of publications, the usual proxy for research, meter the desired activity only imperfectly due to randomness in the publication process. In these circumstances, an employment contract that offers tenure, compared with contracts that a) reward only teaching and b) supplement teaching payments with a direct reward for publications, can better generate the optimal level of human capital. The minimum publication requirement of the tenure contract induces the optimal level of research with less variation in expected income, avoiding inefficient behavioural responses to the greater riskiness of a contract rewarding only realised publications.     

马尾口岸蝇类生物多样性和携带病原微生物情况的研究

目的全面掌握马尾口岸蝇类的种群分布及季节消长变化,分析不同生境和地点蝇类携带病原微生物的差别,对相关疾病的流行风险进行评估。方法根据马尾口岸地理分布和港口类型,2007年7月至2008年6月间,抽取8个监测点7个不同生境实施为期1年的蝇类本底调查,按生境分类对携带病原微生物进行检测。结果捕获蝇类49579只,年平均密度74.67只/笼.日,隶属4科22属36种,比2004年多19种,其中4种未见在福州分布记录,大头金蝇为优势种群。垃圾堆蝇密度最高,高于荒地、居民室外和食堂。大裕堆场和中钢码头蝇密度较高,高于居委会、青州堆场、局本部和闽鑫物流。5至10月份捕获的蝇数占总数的94.57%,出现了9月和5月的双峰。蝇类体内、外均虽未检出痢疾杆菌、伤寒杆菌和霍乱弧菌等强致病菌,但普遍检出了变形杆菌、铜绿假单胞菌和肺炎克雷伯菌等,以及可引起食物中毒的病原菌如金黄色葡萄球菌、变形杆菌等,个别样本检出气单胞菌和小肠耶尔森氏菌。部分蝇体内检出柯萨奇病毒和轮状病毒（A组）。结论马尾口岸蝇种丰富,比4年前有了较大增长,出现了4种输入性蝇种,蝇类体表和体内携带的病毒,可能引起食物中毒及其他肠道传染病传播的风险。     

绥芬河边境贸易运行中亟待解决的政策性问题及建议

黑龙江省最大的边境贸易口岸绥芬河80年代中国和前苏联两国恢复边境贸易以来凭借着悠久的贸易历史和政策、地缘优势，边境贸易得到了迅猛发展。1987－2000年间进出口贸易额累计实现43．65亿美元，完成经济技术合作项目507项，合同项目金额2．8亿美元，上缴关税和代征税达16．3亿元，财政收入实现8．62亿元，绥芬河口岸累计过货量达2212万吨，占黑龙江省过货总量的70％，边境贸易进出口额2000年首次突破10亿美元大关，连续6年占据黑龙江省边境贸易的半壁江山，妈终保持年增长的强劲发展势头，这对于繁荣边境贸易地区经济、解决下岗职工和农村富余劳动力就业，提高人民生活水平起到了举足轻重的作用；对于全省乃至全国边境贸易的发展都起着不可低估的重要作用。但是，最近受外汇核销限制和7月1日实行的国家出入境检验检疫局等五部门联合发布的2001年第2号公告的限制，边境贸易发展受到严重影响。     

On a Mean—Generalized Semivariance Approach to Determining the Hedge Ratio

A new mean‐risk hedge ratio based on the concept of generalized semivariance (GSV) is proposed. The proposed mean‐GSV (M‐GSV) hedge ratio is consistent with the GSV‐based risk–return model developed by Fishburn (1977), Bawa (1975, 1978), and Harlow and Rao (1989). The M‐GSV hedge ratio can also be considered an extension of the GSV‐minimizing hedge ratio considered by De Jong, De Roon, and Veld (1997) and Lien and Tse (1998, 2000). The M‐GSV hedge ratio is estimated for Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 futures and compared to six other widely used hedge ratios. Because all the hedge ratios considered are known to converge to the minimum‐variance (Johnson) hedge ratio under joint normality and martingale conditions, tests for normality and martingale conditions are carried out. The empirical results indicate that the joint normality and martingale hypotheses do not hold for the S&P 500 futures. The M‐GSV hedge ratio varies less than the GSV hedge ratio for low and relevant levels of risk aversion. Furthermore, the M‐GSV hedge ratio converges to a value different from the values of the other hedge ratios for higher values of risk aversion. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21: 581–598, 2001     

Implications of Economic Interdependence for Endogenous Wage Indexation Decisions

This paper shows how economic interdependence affects the indexation decisions of atomistic wage setters in an environment in which monetary authorities do not observe stochastic disturbances before making their policy choices. If stochastic disturbances are common across countries, interdependence has no effect on equilibrium indexation choices in identical countries. However, if disturbances are country specific, numerical simulations show that interdependence is likely to reduce equilibrium indexation choices relative to a small open economy. We also show that indexation choices may be either strategic complements or strategic substitutes, but that strategic complementarity becomes more likely as the degree of interdependence rises.