国家视角下的目的地形象模型——基于来华国际游客的实证研究

国家形象和目的地形象因其对消费者行为和决策的重要影响,分别发展成为国际商务领域和旅游营销领域的重要概念和研究热点,虽然两者具有十分密切的内在联系,但学界对它们的研究却相对独立,缺少交叉研究.该研究在对两个领域的文献和理论模型进行整理后,将目的地形象放置到国家尺度下重新审视,试图揭示一个国家的综合国家形象与其作为旅游目的地的形象之间的互动机制,并尝试引入“熟悉度”等概念建立整合模型.最后以中国大陆为案例地,以来华国际游客为调查对象,通过结构方程模型进行实证检验和修正.结论指出:(1)熟悉度对目的地形象有正向影响;(2)国家形象与目的地形象之间具有双向且正向的影响;(3)国家形象通过目的地形象对游客的忠诚度产生间接影响.     

低学历的竞争

三年前，高考落榜后我来到这座城市。可是奔波了数日，仅有高中文凭的我，却怎么也找不到合意的工作。     

Nonlinear Taylor rules in Central Eastern European countries

This study applies sequential panel selection method (SPSM), proposed by Chortareas and Kapetanios (2009) Chortareas, G., and G. Kapetanios. 2009. “Getting PPP Right: Identifying Mean-Reverting Real Exchange Rates in Panels.” Journal of Banking and Finance 33: 390–404.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], to investigate to test the validity of Taylor rules to assess the nonstationary properties of the convergence of the real exchange rates for 10 Central Eastern European countries. The SPSM can be used to decompose a panel of real exchange rate series into two groups: a group of stationary series and a group of nonstationary series. We identify the stationary processes in the panel and demonstrate that Taylor rules holds for 7 of the 10 countries studied. These results imply that the choices and effectiveness of the monetary policies in Central Eastern European economies are highly influenced by external factors originating from the United States. Additionally, our findings highlight that their real exchange rate convergence is a mean reversion toward equilibrium values of Taylor rules in a nonlinear manner.     

基于分类最优原理的小企业信用风险评价

基于分类最优原理进行小企业信用风险评价,即以违约样本和非违约样本的重心距离最大为目标函数,以指标的三角模糊熵及变异系数组成的指标权重区间为约束条件,确定指标的组合权重,评价小企业信用风险状况。应用实例结果表明:利用该方法评价小企业的信用风险,能够更好地区分违约客户与非违约客户,使模型的判别精度有所提高。     

居民个人理财工具持有状况分析及理财规划——以镇江为例

随着中国市场经济体制的确立和发展,特别是金融业的发展,居民个人理财工具越来越多,且仍呈发展趋势。本文对理财工具进行了对比,重点将各理财工具的优缺点进行比较分析,并就镇江市居民理财工具持有现状通过调查问卷进行调查研究,最终,对单薪家庭、老年人、中年人和营业主、未婚青年等提出理财规划建议。     

A tripartite evolutionary game research on information sharing of the subjects of agricultural product supply chain with a farmer cooperative as the core enterprise

In order to explore the interaction law of information sharing behavior of decision-making subjects in the agricultural product supply chain, this paper establishes a tripartite evolutionary game mathematical model, uses the replicator dynamics equation to analyze the dynamic evolution process of the three-dimensional dynamic system, and carries out numerical simulation analysis. The results show that there are seven key factors affecting the information sharing decisions of the decision-making subjects. This paper explores the specific role of these influencing factors and finds ways to improve supply chain performance. Finally, the study proposes four suggestions for supply chain information sharing management.     

Transplanting Social Capital to the Online World: Insights from Two Experimental Studies

The recent proliferation of computer networks has stimulated the emergence of thousands of online communities. Facebook, which has grown to 175-million users in five years and recently surpassed megasite MySpace to become the world's largest social networking site, is a classic example. As the importance of online communities continues to grow, a good understanding of their success factors for building and sustaining a community becomes crucial.

In this article, we apply social capital theories to examine the interactions among individuals and trust building at the initial development of an online community. Specifically, we postulate that offline social capital can be transplanted into an online community (small or large) to foster the development of trust and social norms that make a community thrive. We conduct two experimental studies: one in the context of real-world, small-scale online communities, and the other in the context of computer-simulated large-scale online communities. Results from these studies provide strong support for our proposition. We interpret these results and discuss their implications and contributions to theory and practice.     

试论农业科技发展的规律性

本文从逻辑和历史相结合的角度,论述了农业科技发展作为一个过程所具有的三个方面的规律性,即：①生活资料需求、生产资料需求、生态环境需求和社会文化需求等多样化的社会需求是推动农业科技发展的主要动力;②清除或缓解生产要素配置中的“瓶颈”制约,是农业科技发展的突破口;③提高由社会生产力和自然生产力构成的农业生产力的整体水平,是它业科技发展的落脚点。     

个人住房抵押贷款违约风险影响因素实证研究-以杭州市为例

随着银行个人住房抵押贷款余额的快速上升,个人住房抵押贷款违约风险日益成为人们关注和研究的焦点。本文应用杭州市某国有商业银行信贷数据,采用Logistic模型实证研究发现影响当前个人住房抵押贷款的违约因素按重要性排序依次为:是否为当地人、贷款价值比、期房还是现房、月还款额占家庭月收入的比例、还款方式、家庭收入和建筑面积。本文进一步应用不完全合同理论解释了结论背后的制度含义,并提出了相应的治理措施。     

悬浮床加氢裂化工艺技术经济分析

介绍了重油悬浮床加氢裂化工艺的最新发展，对国内新开发的悬浮床加氢裂化工艺特点作了介绍。并将悬浮床加氢和三种重油轻质化工艺——固定床加氢、延迟焦化、重油催化裂化在技术经济上作了分析对比。在原油品质越来越差的今天，针对劣质重油而开发的的悬浮床加氢裂化工艺具有非常广阔的应用前景。