Labour-Market Developments at a Time of Heightened Uncertainty

These are testing times for labour-market policies in Indonesia. The country faces two major challenges in an unpredictable international and domestic environment: providing people with better, more secure jobs and raising productivity to help raise living standards and reduce poverty. Over the past several months, new global and domestic threats to economic growth have emerged and may hinder progress in jobs and productivity. In the longer term, the government is searching for new strategies to increase productivity, with a focus on supply-side investments in skills and training. In relation to events abroad, uncertainty has increased over the early initiatives taken by the new US president and his nationalist administration, such as the scuttling of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. At home, likely to be of some significance for economic policy are mass actions that were levelled against Jakarta’s governor but de facto also directed against the government. In the medium term, our assessment of the record of the Joko Widodo (Jokowi) government on the labour market is mixed. Over the past two years, growth has been slower than under the previous administration and hence job creation has also been muted. The experience of a handful of countries in Asia suggests that the government might have done more to stimulate economic growth and create jobs. The disappointing performance of manufacturing stands out. Yet inflation has fallen and the slide in the value of international trade—both exports and imports—has reversed in recent months. Improved fiscal management and a generally successful tax amnesty are other pluses. There was also an unexpected but considerable fall in unemployment in 2015–16, according to labour-force statistics. Some policies, such as the new approach to minimum wages, seem to have had beneficial effects for both business and the economy, and Indonesia has done well in some international rankings, such as the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business index. However, the picture for the medium to longer term seems less bright for the labour market. There has been much talk about raising productivity by improving skills through government support for investment in training and apprenticeships, as well as by expanding vocational training along the lines of the German model. Expanding tourism is seen as one solution to the lack of employment for young secondary- and tertiary-educated jobseekers. But we have an impression of policy-making on the run; often, the argument for government intervention has not been made clearly enough. We argue that Indonesia still lacks a coherent, well-thought-out plan to increase jobs and productivity.     

The UK and the Euro: Debating the British Decision

This article seeks to inform and enliven the debate on whether or not Britain should join the euro. The central focus of the article involves interviews with two leading economists, Professor Willem Buiter (Chief Economist and Special Counsellor to the President, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development) who strongly supports the case for joining, and Professor Patrick Minford (Professor of Applied Economics, Cardiff Business School) who takes the opposite stance. The article begins with an introduction which places the interviews in context and concludes with a final section summarising the central points of commonality and departure arising in the interviews with Professors Buiter and Minford.     

Industrial incentives,domestic resource costs and resource allocation in Madagascar

This paper uses 104 episodes from the Hufbauer et al. (1985, 1990) dataset to examine the correlates of classes of outcomes of economic sanctions. The parsimonious equations presented identify the characteristics of sanctions episodes conducive to success rather than marginal success, and the characteristics productive of failure rather than marginal failure. Failure is most likely if there is significant third party assistance to the target, and if the pre-existing trade linkage between sender and target is small. Success is most easily achieved when the objective is not classified as 'modest', and when pre-sanction relations between sender and target are cordial or neutral. The equations presented overcome data and methodological flaws of earlier studies, exhibit reasonable predictive accuracy, and satisfy a battery of tests of statistical significance, hypothesized coefficient sign, goodness of fit, high likelihood and informational efficiency.     

Leisure corrupted: an artist's portrait of leisure in a changing society

Theoretical arguments that leisure is the basis of any culture are available. Yet, scarcity in the literature of serious consideration of leisure in non-Western societies demonstrates that the topic has been neglected. One possible explanation for the failure to achieve progress in cultural comparisons of leisure is the lack of data. At least three approaches permit this type of comparison. This paper focuses on a literary approach by investigating how East Africa's most prominent creative writer, Ngugi wa Thiong'o, treats leisure in his most important English language novels. This analysis centers on two of his novels, A Grain of Wheat and Petals of Blood. The two novels are complex, intricate stories drawing heavily on Western philosophy and literature as well as African folklore. Although Ngugi suggests that leisure is the foundation of civilization, the fibre that makes the cloth of society, he portrays leiusre distinctively in social terms likely to surprise those familiar with Western traditions of leisure.     

Musings on the Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Increases

In considering the macroeconomic effects of oil price increases, it is important to be mindful of whether changes come from the supply or demand side and whether they are accompanied by impacts on financial markets. Also, it is important to know whether a change is likely to be temporary or permanent and whether it can be offset by policy responses. Finally, the short-run effects of oil price changes are likely to be different from the long-run effects. This paper explores these questions and their ramifications for macroeconomic growth.     

Constraints to Park Visitation: A Meta-Analysis of North American Studies

The constraints that curb visitation to parks have received considerable research attention and remain an important issue. Constraints to outdoor leisure in parks include structural barriers, such as cost of entry, interpersonal barriers, for example, lack of a partner to visit with, or intrapersonal barriers, including lack of interest. Using a meta-analysis approach, this article integrates the findings of 22 North American studies with 541 estimates, conducted over a 30-year period, to determine the key constraints to park visitation based on various socio-demographic factors. The findings highlight the varying roles that constraints play in limiting the visitation of people according to race, age, gender, education and income. Gaps in the literature are identified, with implications for encouraging visitation for more constrained groups discussed. An agenda for future research is presented.     

A comparison of models for pricing interest rate derivative securities

This paper looks at the different approaches and different models that have been developed to value interest rate-dependent securities, providing a survey of pricing procedures which are based on mathematical models of the term structure. It can be viewed as a reference for the different interest rate models with explicit representations, where they exist, for prices of derivative instruments and an an analysis of their respective advantages and disadvantages.     

Network science: A Review Focused on Tourism

This paper presents a review of the methods of the science of networks with an application to the field of tourism studies. The basic definitions and computational techniques are described and a case study (Elba, Italy) used to illustrate the effect of network typology on information diffusion. A static structural characterization of the network formed by destination stakeholders is derived from stakeholder interviews and website link analysis. This is followed by a dynamic analysis of the information diffusion process within the case destination demonstrating that stakeholder cohesion and adaptive capacity have a positive effect on information diffusion. The outcomes and the implications of this analysis for improving destination management are discussed.     

The coffee-machine system: how international selection really works

The literature on expatriate selection tends to present lists of criteria, with the implicit assumption that the process is formal and rational. The limited empirical work there is in this area suggests that these criteria have little impact on selection in practice. This paper argues that a deeper understanding of selection systems is needed and presents research showing the outcomes of different kinds of systems, suggesting that closed, informal systems predominate and outlining the practical and research implications of such systems.     

Advertising by Medical Professionals—A Healthy Outlook

The opening up of the professions to advertising does not yet include the medical profession, and the author argues that this exclusion is unwarranted. Far from being against the public interest, he suggests that patients are not only capable of using more information, but that improvements in medical practice will flow from this. The experience of the legal—and other professions—following the relaxation of advertising rules is discussed together with the problems arising. The conclusion is that advertising by the medical profession is worth at least a trial and that liberty to advertise be extended to consultants and hospitals.