Book reviews

There is currently a tremendous interest in the development and use of expert systems (ES), and marketing activities have not been immune to such enthusiasm. The degree of enthusiasm expressed is often strongly at variance with reality. The purpose of this paper is to give a moderating view on the role of expert systems in marketing.

The paper begins with a short review of “conventional” management support systems (MSS). This provides a firm base from which to develop a comparison between MSS and ES in terms of the components of these systems. Throughout the comparison, characteristics are highlighted that might at first glance appear to be uniquely characteristic of Expert Systems but are available in “traditional” MSS. The present state of expert systems in business, and particularly in marketing are then discussed. Consideration is then given of the strengths and weaknesses of ES and of the match of these characteristics with marketing activities.     

Choosy Youth or Unwanted Youth? A Survey of Unemployment

This paper examines structure and change in unemployment in Indonesia from the 1970s through to 1996 The analysis focuses on high unemployment rates among urban youth, set in the context of similar problems experienced in other developing countries. It also deals with some of the conceptual and measurement issues. It is concluded that high youth unemployment is partly a queuing phenomenon among middle class families, related to processes of job search and wage structure. But rates of under-utilisation are also high among children of poorer households in the working age papulation Over time, the paper finds considerable stability in the structure of unemployment, with some tendency for overall rates to increase Some rises in unemplnyment were experienced by youth with either low educational status or tertiary qualifications, and by women Explanations include increased minimum wages and a slowdown in manufacturing activity, although changing definations have also played a part.     

Complementary pensions in the European Union

In some countries of the European Union (EU) complementary pension schemes represent a major part of pension provision, whereas in others they play a relatively marginal role. An important factor is whether the social security scheme provides earnings-related benefits and whether the ceiling on eligible earnings for social security purposes leaves room for there to be a demand for supplementary pensions arrangements, in particular for the higher paid. Pressures on the financing of social security, especially with the expected ageing of the population in the first 30 years of the next century, are encouraging many countries to develop complementary provision, and a number of new pension laws have been passed in recent years. However, important though the growth of complementary provision is, it should not be forgotten that investment markets are also likely to be affected by the ageing of the population. There are increasing pressures for greater investment freedom for complementary pension schemes, but little progress has been made by the EU in harmonisation of the regulatory regimes for complementary pensions. If mobility of labour between the countries of the EU is to become a reality, progress needs to be made soon on these pensions issues.     

Analysing shock transmission in a data-rich environment: a large BVAR for New Zealand

We analyse a large Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) containing almost 100 New Zealand macroeconomic time series. Methods for allowing multiple blocks of equations with block-specific Bayesian priors are described, and forecasting results show that our model compares favourably to a range of other time series models. Examining the impulse responses to a monetary policy shock and to two less conventional shocks—net migration and the climate—we highlight the usefulness of the large BVAR in analysing shock transmission.     

An Empirical Comparison of Convertible Bond Valuation Models

This paper empirically compares three convertible bond valuation models. We use an innovative approach where all model parameters are estimated by the Marquardt algorithm using a subsample of convertible bond prices. The model parameters are then used for out-of-sample forecasts of convertible bond prices. The mean absolute deviation is 1.86% for the Ayache-Forsyth-Vetzal model, 1.94% for the Tsiveriotis-Fernandes model, and 3.73% for the Brennan-Schwartz model. For this and other measures of fit, the Ayache-Forsyth-Vetzal and Tsiveriotis-Fernandes models outperform the Brennan-Schwartz model.     

A study of the employment system of Japanese multinational retailers in Hong Kong

This study examines the employment system of Japanese multinational retailing corporations in Hong Kong through two case companies - Morioka and Okadaya. The human resource management (HRM) practices- recruitment and selection, remuneration, and training and development - of the companies are studied. The different HRM practices applied to different groups of employees within each case company are compared using an employment systems model. The employment system is structured and multi-layered. The development of the structured employment system is then analysed in relation to the cultural and sectoral factors. It is shown that only the cultural characteristics of the Japanese parent companies can explain the ethnocentric management approach used in which Japanese personnel are employed in the internal labour marker (ILM) and local employees are employed outside the ILM. Economic and labour market conditions in both parent and host countries and sectoral characteristics have also contributed to the stratification of the employment system among the local employees. The implications of this study are that the long-term development of Japanese multinational retailers will be weakened if the structured employment system persists.     

ARE COGNITIVE SKILLS RELEVANT IN GENDER EARNINGS DECOMPOSITIONS?

While cognitive skills are known to play an important role in labour market success, empirical evidence is mainly concentrated in its effect on returns to schooling. Evidence on the role of cognitive skills in gender earnings gap decompositions is virtually absent. I use two approaches to investigate the potential for cognitive skills to affect the size and pattern of the unexplained component of the earnings gap (‘relative discrimination’) across the wage distribution, using data from the International Adult Literacy Survey (IALS). It has been shown that when the raw cognitive score is used to control for cognitive skills, the return to schooling cognitive skills is generally underestimated. Once a distinction is made about the origins of cognitive skills (acquired in school versus outside the school), the returns to cognitive skills can vary depending on their origin. I find that using the raw score to control for cognitive skills does not result in any significantly different estimates of the unexplained component of the gap compared to when cognitive skills are not controlled for. However, once cognitive skills by origin of skill are used in place of total cognitive skills, the results change substantially for three of the five countries examined.