Labour-Market Developments at a Time of Heightened Uncertainty

These are testing times for labour-market policies in Indonesia. The country faces two major challenges in an unpredictable international and domestic environment: providing people with better, more secure jobs and raising productivity to help raise living standards and reduce poverty. Over the past several months, new global and domestic threats to economic growth have emerged and may hinder progress in jobs and productivity. In the longer term, the government is searching for new strategies to increase productivity, with a focus on supply-side investments in skills and training. In relation to events abroad, uncertainty has increased over the early initiatives taken by the new US president and his nationalist administration, such as the scuttling of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. At home, likely to be of some significance for economic policy are mass actions that were levelled against Jakarta’s governor but de facto also directed against the government. In the medium term, our assessment of the record of the Joko Widodo (Jokowi) government on the labour market is mixed. Over the past two years, growth has been slower than under the previous administration and hence job creation has also been muted. The experience of a handful of countries in Asia suggests that the government might have done more to stimulate economic growth and create jobs. The disappointing performance of manufacturing stands out. Yet inflation has fallen and the slide in the value of international trade—both exports and imports—has reversed in recent months. Improved fiscal management and a generally successful tax amnesty are other pluses. There was also an unexpected but considerable fall in unemployment in 2015–16, according to labour-force statistics. Some policies, such as the new approach to minimum wages, seem to have had beneficial effects for both business and the economy, and Indonesia has done well in some international rankings, such as the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business index. However, the picture for the medium to longer term seems less bright for the labour market. There has been much talk about raising productivity by improving skills through government support for investment in training and apprenticeships, as well as by expanding vocational training along the lines of the German model. Expanding tourism is seen as one solution to the lack of employment for young secondary- and tertiary-educated jobseekers. But we have an impression of policy-making on the run; often, the argument for government intervention has not been made clearly enough. We argue that Indonesia still lacks a coherent, well-thought-out plan to increase jobs and productivity.     

Cambium non est mutuum: exchange and interest rates in medieval Europe

A major gap in our understanding of the medieval economy concerns interest rates, especially relating to commercial credit. Although direct evidence about interest rates is scattered and anecdotal, there is much more surviving information about exchange rates. Since both contemporaries and historians have suggested that exchange and rechange transactions could be used to disguise the charging of interest in order to circumvent the usury prohibition, it should be possible to back out implied interest rates from exchange rates. The analysis presented in this article is based on a new dataset of medieval exchange rates collected from commercial correspondence in the archive of Francesco di Marco Datini of Prato, c. 1383–1411. It demonstrates that the time value of money was consistently incorporated into market exchange rates. Moreover, these implicit interest rates are broadly comparable to those received from other types of commercial loan and investment. Although on average profitable, the return on any individual exchange and rechange transaction did involve a degree of uncertainty that may have justified their non‐usurious nature. However, there were also practical reasons why medieval merchants may have used foreign exchange transactions as a means of extending credit.     

A Re-examination of the Performance of Value Strategies in the Athens Stock Exchange

This study tests the performance of contrarian (value) strategies in the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) in a recent period of time (2003–8) on the basis of the price to earnings ratios, dividend yields, firm size (market value), market to book ratios, financial leverage ratios, and market beta. Apart from the univariate portfolio analysis, we implement a novel panel data analysis based on the procedure suggested by Pesaran (2004, Econometrica 74:967–1012, 2006) that provides a valid estimation and inference under cross sectional dependence. Our portfolio analysis results highlight for investors in the ASE the superiority of value strategies formed on the basis of stocks with low price-to-earnings, high dividend yield ratios, and low market-to-book ratios. Our panel data analysis results depend on whether or not we correct for the problem of cross-sectional correlation in the regression residuals as suggested by Pesaran’s (Econometrica 74:967–1012, 2006) method. When we correct for this problem, we obtain evidence which support only a negative association between annual stock returns and market-to-book ratios. This may imply to investors that an adoption of a value strategy based on the market-to-book ratio may constitute a safer option compared with the other two alternatives suggested by the portfolio analysis results.     

Niche Entry as a Route to Mainstream Innovation: Learning from the Phosphoric Acid Fuel Cell in Stationary Power

The paper charts the efforts to establish a successful niche position for the phosphoric acid fuel cell (PAFC) in stationary power generation, as a precursor to wider technological system and regime change. Market entry depends on matching price/performance characteristics to a niche, and improving performance through increasing returns, the most important and immediate of which are ‘learning effects’. The paper identifies five types of learning effect: (i) migrating the technology to other niches and into the mainstream; (ii) opening the way for other technologies that may have greater scope for migration; (iii) transferring learning within the pioneering company to other technologies or products; (iv) transferring experience to others in the industry; and (v) enabling users to learn. Although PAFC may be perceived as a failure in some respects, a wider perspective suggests it has made a positive and useful contribution to learning.     

Musings on the Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Increases

In considering the macroeconomic effects of oil price increases, it is important to be mindful of whether changes come from the supply or demand side and whether they are accompanied by impacts on financial markets. Also, it is important to know whether a change is likely to be temporary or permanent and whether it can be offset by policy responses. Finally, the short-run effects of oil price changes are likely to be different from the long-run effects. This paper explores these questions and their ramifications for macroeconomic growth.     

Advertising by Medical Professionals—A Healthy Outlook

The opening up of the professions to advertising does not yet include the medical profession, and the author argues that this exclusion is unwarranted. Far from being against the public interest, he suggests that patients are not only capable of using more information, but that improvements in medical practice will flow from this. The experience of the legal—and other professions—following the relaxation of advertising rules is discussed together with the problems arising. The conclusion is that advertising by the medical profession is worth at least a trial and that liberty to advertise be extended to consultants and hospitals.     

How divergent beliefs cause account team conflict

An exploratory, qualitative study of leading London and New York advertising agencies suggested that the differing disciplinary perspectives account team professionals bring to the advertising development process may have a deeper basis. Analysis of in-depth interviews suggested that they conceived of their respective roles in terms of implicit models of the consumer. These models were represented through particular epistemologies of consumer knowledge. The contrasting ‘epistemological models’ held by account team professionals were apparent in the differing stances on the role and function of consumer research in advertising development. The paper attempts to substantiate these speculative models with the dual aim of generating insight into the underlying dynamics of account teams and also of contributing to extant work on implicit theory in advertising practice.