Marktwirtschaftliche Energiewende: Ein Wettbewerbsrahmen für die Stromversorgung mit alternativen Technologien

If the German energy transition is to succeed, environmental soundness should not be the only criterion on the agenda with respect to the restructuring of the energy system. It is rather the security of electricity supply and likewise the social sustainability during the transformation process that has to be ensured. The primary question is how to fulfill this challenge in the light of the legal obligation of a complete nuclear power phase-out in the most cost-effective way. The looming avalanche of costs triggered by record-breaking highs of the expanding solar power systems, promoted under the German Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG), should have made it clear that cost efficiency has only played a minor role so far. According to this study, (real) additional costs for all solar power systems, which had been installed between 2000 and the end of 2011 in Germany, sum up to about 100 billion Euros (prices as of 2011). Since these resources are withdrawn from other societal uses, it is essential that costs for the energy transition in general and in particular the consumers’ costs due to an increased share in renewable energies have to be minimized. For this reason, a new, more cost-efficient and market-oriented promotion/funding system is needed to replace the current system based on the EEG. As suggested by the Monopoly Commission (Monopolkommission 2011), the German Council of Economic Experts (SVR 2011) and recently by acatech, Germany’s National Academy of Science and Engineering (acatech 2012), a market-based promotion system with quantity control in the form of quotas for “green” energy would be a more efficient system. If from 2013 onwards, the future expansion of renewable energies would be fostered by a national quota-based system instead of the EEG, the expansion could be more cost-effective, according to calculations of this study. If, for example, the future price for green electricity certificates exclusively accelerated the expansion of on-shore wind power, the overall subsidies for those wind power capacities that may be installed between 2013 and 2020 merely amount to EUR 6.8 billion (current prices) instead of subsidies in the amount of nearly 58.8 billion Euro (current prices) in the case of further sticking to the EEG. This alone should give sufficient reason to replace the EEG as quickly as possible by a market-based support system such as the quota system.     

Stock investments for German life insurers in the current low interest environment: more homework to do

Currently a stock market rally and at the same time extremely low interest rates can be observed. This coincides with more volatile risk premiums for interest baring assets like government bonds. The mixture makes life harder for investment managers of (especially life) insurances. They have to continuously find profitable investments with good returns for the customers’ money, in case of the life insurers, in order to be able to pay at least the promised returns of the contracts. After the stock market burst around the turn of the century the levels of stock investments by German insurers have declined significantly, therefore also missing out on the rises leading up to the Lehman crash and also not participating in recent developments. With insurance asset managers avoiding stocks in the past years the questions can be raised, if they are forfeiting a good opportunity for their portfolio and if there is still time to participate in possible future gains. On the other hand the upcoming regulatory environment, namely Solvency II, will play an important role in the future and likely already has an impact on the investment decisions of the companies. Higher capital requirements for stock investments make it even harder to earn the so-called “Garantiezins”. Without ignoring the risks related to stock investments, effectively banning equities from asset managers’ buy lists might lead to missing out on desperately needed returns for the life insurance industry. So policy makers probably should reconsider their directives. This paper evaluates the attractiveness of stock investments from a long term as well as a risk adjusted perspective using e.g. different indicators and commonly used measurements for stocks with a rather conservative focus, in order to possibly get some insight into the future performance of stocks. Looking back to a decade of boom and bust cycles in the equity markets does not necessary rule out stocks as an important source for returns. The results are discussed comprehensively also in face of the regulatory changes to come. In the end timing plays a major role and due to that the current valuation of stocks as well as the look ahead are of vital importance. Assessing the reliability of professional forecasts for financial market time series—in this context especially for stocks as well as interest rates—plays an important role for asset managers.     

Corporate foresight and innovation management: A portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development

The transition from a traditional industry-driven economy to a knowledge-based economy requires new concepts and methods for companies to sustain competitive advantage. Here, academia has identified corporate foresight and innovation as key success factors. While, content-wise, the contribution of futures research methods to the innovation process has already been researched, this study strives to explore the status quo of organizational development stages of both concepts. To do so, we developed a portfolio-approach, the so-called ‘Future-Fitness-Portfolio’, which enables companies to qualitatively compare amongst others and identify organizational improvement potential. In addition, we conducted expert interviews to explore future organizational development trends in corporate foresight and innovation management. As our research revealed, five strategic clusters can be identified within the portfolio. Consequently, we propose specific strategies for each individual cluster. We conclude that there will be two main organizational development trends for corporate foresight and innovation management in the future: in traditional industries with conventional business models and long product-life-cycles, companies will follow a different development path than companies in dynamic industries with innovative business models and short product-life-cycles.     

The fit between product market strategy and business model: implications for firm performance

We examine the fit between a firm's product market strategy and its business model. We develop a formal model in order to analyze the contingent effects of product market strategy and business model choices on firm performance. We investigate a unique, manually collected dataset, and find that novelty‐centered business models—coupled with product market strategies that emphasize differentiation, cost leadership, or early market entry—can enhance firm performance. Our data suggest that business model and product market strategy are complements, not substitutes. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.