Nonparametric analysis of financial time series by the Kernel methodology

This paper aims to study, in the most recent historical time period, the efficiency of the Paris Stock Exchange market. We test its weak form while analysing the stock exchange returns series by nonparametric methods, using kernel methodology in particular. In doing so, our approach extends the traditional view treating the observed cyclical fluctuations on this market.     

Scientist and public responses to BSE‐related risk: A comparative study

Social studies of risk repeatedly have found substantial divergences in the way that experts/scientists and members of the general public appraise risks associated with health and environmental hazards. However, empirical evidence for these differences remains controversial. A recent review of literature suggests in particular that divergences between experts and lay people may potentially result from confounding socio‐demographic factors. The purpose of the present article is to investigate and to compare how medical scientists and members of the general population reacted to BSE (“mad cow disease”) in France. A sample of 401 scientists belonging to the French Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM) and a representative sample of 902 French citizens were asked about their cognitive, affective and behavioural responses to BSE. Results show that non‐scientists tended to express much more concern about BSE‐related risk than scientists, even when socio‐demographic variables were controlled. However, (1) no significant differences were found between these two groups concerning subjective epidemiological predictions, and (2) scientists manifested greater avoidance of beef or beef by‐products avoidance following the BSE epidemic than lay respondents did. The implications of these paradoxical results are discussed.     

Liability insurance under the negligence rule

We incorporate the concept of evidentiary standard to the analysis of the negligence rule under liability insurance and court errors. When the postaccident evidence is privately contractible and not too noisy, efficiency is achieved by both strict liability and a negligence rule with appropriate due care and evidentiary standards. When the evidence is not directly contractible, trial outcomes represent useful contractible information for the risk‐incentives tradeoff in the liability insurance policy. Strict liability is then inefficient and dominated by the negligence rule. The negligence rule can itself be improved upon by decoupling damages from the harm suffered by the victim.     

Exploiting the Chaos: Terrorist Target Choice Following Natural Disasters

This article explores the differences between transnational and domestic terrorism, further differentiating by private versus government targets, to estimate the effect of exogenous catastrophic shocks on a country's level of domestic and transnational terrorism. The empirical analysis uses detailed data on terrorism, natural disasters, and other relevant controls for 176 countries from 1970–2007 to illuminate several key disparities in a postdisaster target choice of terrorists. The results indicate that natural disasters incite both transnational and domestic terrorism; however, evidence is found for dissimilar motivations between the two. While both types of terrorism increase after disasters, transnational attacks against the government increase immediately following the disaster, suggesting an impetus to exploit weakened “hard” targets during the chaos. Conversely, domestic terrorism against the government takes longer to manifest, suggesting a period of time for which the public recovers and assesses the government's response.     

Political issues in inland waterways port development: prospects for regionalization

In the vast scientific literature on maritime transport, one theme appears neglected: the juridico-political framework in port development. We first examine how the jurisdictional control influences the allocation of resources and financial responsibilities. Second, we carefully evaluate conventional theoretical explanations of the process of port development as it generates important consequences on port policy formulation. We suggest that the concept of the port transition needs to be positioned within a new paradigm of the regional economy. Third, by focusing on three case studies namely France, China and Canada, we provide an understanding of institutional structure and how they reflect tendencies in port development. We then investigate regional flows, particularly the role of offshore, inshore and coastal traffic. Fourth, we present policy options for regionalization of ports. Fifth, we explore the regional elements of the port transition and provide an appreciation of the new role of the State in port development policies. The paper concludes on the adoption of new paradigm in port development strategies.