The transition from central planning to a market economy: A computable general equilibrium model

This paper develops a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the transition from a central planned economy to a market economy. The model is an extension of Wellisz and Findlay's (1986) model of the Soviet second economy. By distinguishing alternative assumptions about the disposition of the government budget, two model variants — the activist and non-activist — are analyzed. Equilibria of these model variants are computed for various parameter specifications of the Kantorovich ray, which represents the stringency of central planners' direction of the economy. The paper shows that increasing efficiency of the private sector, while it reduces the size of government subsidies to the state sector, does not necessarily increase the net government budget.     

Convergence in the Spanish and Portuguese NUTS 3 regions: An exploratory spatial approach

Since their accession to the European Union in 1986, both Portugal and Spain have benefited from strong financial support. Both countries have experienced considerable growth in income per capita, converging towards average European levels. However, several studies suggest a high degree of persistence of regional asymmetries within the countries. This paper empirically analyses convergence among NUTS 3 regions of the Iberian Peninsula between 1995 and 2008. The results reveal divergent national trends and indicate no evidence of catching-up effects among the poorest regions, confirming the existence of economic clusters.     

Mixed‐frequency models with moving‐average components

Temporal aggregation in general introduces a moving‐average (MA) component in the aggregated model. A similar feature emerges when not all but only a few variables are aggregated, which generates a mixed‐frequency (MF) model. The MA component is generally neglected, likely to preserve the possibility of ordinary least squares estimation, but the consequences have never been properly studied in the MF context. In this paper we show, analytically, in Monte Carlo simulations and in a forecasting application on US macroeconomic variables, the relevance of considering the MA component in MF mixed‐data sampling (MIDAS) and unrestricted MIDAS models (MIDAS–autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and UMIDAS‐ARMA). Specifically, the simulation results indicate that the short‐term forecasting performance of MIDAS‐ARMA and UMIDAS‐ARMA are better than that of, respectively, MIDAS and UMIDAS. The empirical applications on nowcasting US gross domestic product (GDP) growth, investment growth, and GDP deflator inflation confirm this ranking. Moreover, in both simulation and empirical results, MIDAS‐ARMA is better than UMIDAS‐ARMA.     

Money,Comfort or Environment? Priorities and Determinants of Energy Efficiency Investments in Irish Households

Energy efficiency is an effective strategy to reduce household energy consumption. Investments in energy efficiency measures (EEMs) result in reduced energy bills and increased comfort for households, while also contributing to national environmental targets. This article examines an energy efficiency scheme in Ireland and investigates the factors that determine investments in energy efficiency measures and the motivations of Irish households to participate in energy saving programs and adopt EEMs. The paper investigates three key research questions: the determination of investments in EEMs, with special focus on motivations and their relative importance; the consistency of motivations over the course of the decision-making process; and the consistency of determinants and motivations for investments in EEMs across different measures. The paper studies the implementation of seven energy efficiency measures in residential houses throughout Ireland. Results indicate that the decision to ultimately apply and invest in EEMs is mainly driven by monetary or economic factors such as gains in energy savings and the private cost of the measures. Comfort gains are found to be a secondary factor and environmental benefits of EEMs are found to be of little concern when making investment decisions. Finally, we suggest focusing on providing information about the benefits of the EEMs on energy savings and improvements in comfort in order to increase the adoption of EEMs by households in Ireland.     

Catch me if I fall: Cross-national differences in willingness to take financial risks as a function of social and state ‘cushioning’

Knowledge about the existence and source of national differences in willingness to take risks plays a vital role in ensuring successful communication, collaboration, and understanding across countries, from the personal to the organizational and political/social domain. The current study investigates differences in financial risk-taking willingness between countries as a function of social and state ‘cushioning’, i.e. the extent of a person’s social support network and the state’s social-safety support network. The study compares large-scale household data and self-reports on willingness to take financial risks across three countries differing in their state support networks: Austria, Italy and the United States. Results show that personal social support network size influences risk-taking willingness (social cushioning). Furthermore, and most notably, we find evidence of an interactive relationship between social and state cushioning. High state cushioning renders the influence of social cushioning on financial risk-taking willingness less important. Contributions to management and business practice as well as theory on the influence of personal distance to financial support on risk-taking willingness are discussed.     

中国刻意“转型”珠三角愁云惨淡

【德国之声8月1日】珠江三角洲转眼间上万企业倒闭，香港业界一片愁云。连阿迪达斯这样的世界名牌也在局部撤离中国。中国变贵了，劳动密集型产业纷纷撤出。但中国政府对此似乎并不在乎，似乎在有意地“转型”。     

HEATH–JARROW–MORTON INTEREST RATE DYNAMICS AND APPROXIMATELY CONSISTENT FORWARD RATE CURVES

We study a finite-dimensional approach to the Heath–Jarrow–Morton model for interest rate and introduce a notion of approximate consistency for a family of functions in a deterministic and stochastic framework. This amounts to asking the decrease of the minimum distance in least squares sense. We start from a general linearly parameterized set of functions and extend the theory to a nonlinear Nelson–Siegel family. Necessary and sufficient condition to have approximately consistency are given as well as a criterion of stability for the approximation.     

Deterrence, Lawsuits, and Litigation Outcomes Under Court Errors

This article presents a strategic model of liability and litigationunder court errors. Our framework allows for endogenous choiceof level of care and endogenous likelihood of filing and disputes.We derive sufficient conditions for a unique universally divinemixed-strategy perfect Bayesian equilibrium under low courterrors. In this equilibrium, some defendants choose to be grosslynegligent; some cases are filed; and some lawsuits are dropped,some are resolved out of court, and some go to trial. We findthat court errors in the size of the award, as well as damagecaps and split awards, reduce the likelihood of trial but increasefiling and reduce the deterrence effect of punitive damages.We derive conditions under which the adoption of the Englishrule for allocating legal costs reduces filing.     

Inflation expectations of Brazilian consumers: an analysis based on the FGV survey

ABSTRACT

An accurate assessment of inflation expectations is crucial for the management of monetary policies. However, expectations are not directly observed and are hence normally inferred either from the interest rate structure or from surveys of professional forecasters. Alternatively, a direct measure may be obtained from consumer surveys. The aim of this paper is to study the formation of inflation expectations in Brazil, using a novel dataset based on the FGV/IBRE consumer survey. Basing our model on the rational inattention hypothesis, we find that individual heterogeneity plays a very significant role in shaping individual expectations; also, Brazilians adjust expectations to current inflation and to a fixed reference value, while professional forecasts do not play a very relevant role.