Robust Small Area Estimation under Spatial Non‐stationarity

The effective use of spatial information in a regression‐based approach to small area estimation is an important practical issue. One approach to account for geographic information is by extending the linear mixed model to allow for spatially correlated random area effects. An alternative is to include the spatial information by a non‐parametric mixed models. Another option is geographic weighted regression where the model coefficients vary spatially across the geography of interest. Although these approaches are useful for estimating small area means efficiently under strict parametric assumptions, they can be sensitive to outliers. In this paper, we propose robust extensions of the geographically weighted empirical best linear unbiased predictor. In particular, we introduce robust projective and predictive estimators under spatial non‐stationarity. Mean squared error estimation is performed by two analytic approaches that account for the spatial structure in the data. Model‐based simulations show that the methodology proposed often leads to more efficient estimators. Furthermore, the analytic mean squared error estimators introduced have appealing properties in terms of stability and bias. Finally, we demonstrate in the application that the new methodology is a good choice for producing estimates for average rent prices of apartments in urban planning areas in Berlin.     

Mountain bike tourism in Austria and the Alpine region – towards a sustainable model for multi-stakeholder product development

This paper interrogates the polarized and heated discussions about mountain bike tourism in Austrian forests, with several organizations favoring permitting biking on all forest roads, using claimed tourism development opportunities, while other stakeholders including hikers, hunters and landowners wish to restrict development. An international literature review on the value and impacts of mountain biking shows that both sides have oversimplified complex cases. The paper draws on 12 in-depth interviews with Austrian tourism destination and mountain bike experts to find ways forward. Results suggest that in Austria, bike tourism will increase in the future, supported by new bike technology, including electric bikes and new hand-held route information technology. It notes the complexity of the market for mountain and other forms of cycle tourism, and the pressing need to create not more trails but more sophisticated tourism products, including appealing and well-maintained trails plus attractive leisure infrastructure (bike rental, service and repair facilities, attractive localities, accommodation suited to the mountain bikers’ needs, etc.). Collaborative planning with all stakeholders, better trail construction standards adapted to differing preferences, needs and environmental conditions as well as clear standards for monitoring are prerequisites of an Austrian strategy for sustainable cycle tourism development and management, which can be replicated elsewhere.     

Economists tackle the challenges of a pandemic

Business Economics - The COVID-19 pandemic radically and rapidly changed the world, including the world of business economists. Eight NABE members employed in a wide variety of fields discuss how...     

Emerging themes in banking: Recent literature and directions for future research

This paper presents a review of the recent banking literature centred on the core themes of performance, risk and governance of financial institutions. We write this review against the backdrop of the recent financial crisis and the major changes it caused to banking sectors in many countries. Several themes emerge, but the overarching issue relates to the need to better understand bank risk-taking incentives and the implications for systemic stability. Specifically, there is a need for more work on: the role of safety net subsidies and how these relate to systemic risk; financial innovation and the adoption of new products and processes; and how innovative behaviour links to risk-taking, market returns and contagion. Future research could also be directed to provide a better understanding of the inter-connections between competition, capital, profitability, liquidity and risk.     

MEASUREMENT ERROR IN THE BANK OF ITALY'S SURVEY OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND WEALTH

This paper is aimed at evaluating the incidence of measurement error in the Bank of Italy's Survey of Household Income and Wealth (SHIW). In the case of time-invariant variables, we assess the degree of inconsistency of answers given by panel households in subsequent survey waves. For quantities that vary with time, we estimate the incidence of measurement error by decomposing observed variability into true dynamics and error-induced noise. We apply the Heise model or the latent Markov model, depending on whether the data are continuous or categorical. We also present regression models that explain the error-generating process. Our results are relevant to researchers who use SHIW data for economic analysis, but also to data producers involved in similar income and wealth surveys. The methods we describe and test can be employed in a number of contexts to gain better understanding of data-related problems and plans for survey improvement.     

Scope and patterns of tourist injuries in the European Union

European Union (EU) countries are among the leading tourist destinations in the world. Despite growing consumer demands on the safety of travelling, injuries amongst tourists remain an essentially invisible problem. Unique national and regional data sources are the only means by which the important negative impact of injuries on the health of non-domestic tourists in the EU-15 is underlined. With an estimated number of 3800 tourists dying each year, injuries account for up to 30% of fatalities during vacation. This toll reflects an increased risk of mortality in tourists compared to the domestic population. Amendments to national and EU health and injury monitoring are suggested in order to enable authorities to examine personal risks to travellers in more detail.     

Economic Efficiency and Productivity Growth in the Post-Privatization Chilean Hydroelectric Industry

Chiles hydroelectric industry was privatized in 1985, but required to operate within a regulatory framework designed to achieve a competitive outcome. A centralized dispatch center was established to ensure production at minimum cost, subject to constraints on minimum release and minimum reservoir stock. A reluctance to rapidly reduce the industry work force may also have existed. We develop a constrained cost-minimization model for thermal and hydro generation to obtain the shadow price of water and to determine the qualitative effect of these constraints on allocative efficiency. Using panel data from 1986–1997, we assess the economic efficiency of the hydro industry by estimating a stochastic distance frontier and price equations from the dual cost-minimization problem. We find dramatic increases in technical change and productivity change, with positive efficiency change for all years but the last. We also observe a dramatic decline in allocative inefficiencies over our sample period. The share of hydro generation from run-of-river and thermal plants relative to reservoir plants has increased, presumably in reaction to the water release and reservoir stock constraints, reducing the relative over-utilization of capital to water from the pre-1985 regime. Further, the over-utilization of labor to capital and water has fallen over time. However, considerable allocative inefficiencies remain, consistent with our finding of industry-wide scale economies. Substantial cost savings would result if technical and allocative efficiency were eliminated.JEL Classification: L94, D24     

Optimal portfolios when stock prices follow an exponential Lévy process

We investigate some portfolio problems that consist of maximizing expected terminal wealth under the constraint of an upper bound for the risk, where we measure risk by the variance, but also by the Capital-at-Risk (CaR). The solution of the mean-variance problem has the same structure for any price process which follows an exponential Lévy process. The CaR involves a quantile of the corresponding wealth process of the portfolio. We derive a weak limit law for its approximation by a simpler Lévy process, often the sum of a drift term, a Brownian motion and a compound Poisson process. Certain relations between a Lévy process and its stochastic exponential are investigated.Received: January 2003Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary: 60F05, 60G51, 60H30, 91B28; secondary: 60E07, 91B70JEL Classification: C22, G11, D81We would like to thank Jan Kallsen and Ralf Korn for discussions and valuable remarks on a previous version of our paper. The second author would like to thank the participants of the Conference on Lévy Processes at Aarhus University in January 2002 for stimulating remarks. In particular, a discussion with Jan Rosinski on gamma processes has provided more insight into the approximation of the variance gamma model.