The Climate Policy of the European Union

There is now almost universal agreement that climate change, with potentially disastrous consequences, is happening and that it is contributed to by human activities. This Forum is dedicated to the discussion of various aspects of the European Union's climate policy, e.g. the EU's future role in the global effort to combat global warming, the efficiency of its climate strategy, the design of a new rule for sharing the corresponding burdens fairly among member states, and the interrelationships between the Union's climate policies, on the one hand, and its energy and transport policies, on the other. * and member of the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU). The author wishes to thank Helen Bicknell (Mainz University of Applied Sciences), Oliver Deke (WBGU) and Jürgen Schmid (ISET, Department of Efficient Energy Conversion at the University of Kassel) for their helpful comments. ** This contribution is based on a Jean Monnet Lecture held at Aarhus University on 19 March 2007. The author would like to thank Harri Kalimo for valuable comments.     

A money demand system for euro area M3

In order to assess the importance of monetary and financial developments for key macroeconomic variables in the euro area a money demand system for M3 is estimated adopting a structural cointegrating VAR approach. While maintaining a good statistical representation of the data, long-run relationships are based on economic theory. By using generalized response profiles the dynamics of the money demand system is investigated without any further identifying assumptions. Error bounds of the profiles are derived using bootstrap simulations.     

Asset allocation over the life cycle: How much do taxes matter?

We study the welfare effect of tax-optimizing portfolio decisions in a life cycle model with unspanned labor income and realization-based capital gain taxation. For realistic parameterizations of our model, certainty equivalent welfare gains from fully tax-optimized portfolio decisions are less than 2% of present financial wealth and lifetime income compared to a heuristic portfolio policy ignoring the taxation of profits (capital gains, interest and dividend payments). Compared to a heuristic portfolio policy that only ignores the realization-based feature of capital gain taxation and instead assumes mark-to-market taxation, these gains are less than 0.5%. That is, our work provides a justification for ignoring taxes in life cycle portfolio choice problems – a wide-spread assumption in that literature. However, if capital gains are forgiven at death (as in the U.S.), investors with strong bequest motives face substantial welfare costs when not tax-optimizing their portfolio decisions towards the end of the life cycle.     

The Reform of the German Works Constitution Act: A Critical Assessment

Since 1920, the thrust of German law on workplace codetermination has changed on a number of occasions. We describe the latest swing of the legislative pendulum—favoring works council formation and competence—and evaluate the case for it. We provide new information on the extent of works councils before reviewing the evidence on their economic effects, focusing on some new results from matched-plant data. If the former evidence points to a codetermination deficit, this shortfall does not appear to have negative consequences for workplace productivity, profitability, and employment.     

Fixed price equilibria in an overlapping generations model with investment

We study fixed price temporary equilibria (with rationing) and sequences of temporary equilibria in a three commodities (goods, labor, bonds) overlapping generations model with endogenous investment. Young consumers, living two periods, work, consume, and buy bonds for financing next period's consumption. New firms, existing for two periods, make a production plan for the next period, taking into account expected rationing, assumed similar to present rationing. The plan determines the amount of goods to buy as capital, financed by bonds. Old firms produce, using labor and the previously bought capital. Different regimes exist and expectations can be self-fulfilling and self-destroying.We are grateful to the referees for helpful comments.     

The choice between a tariff and a quota under uncertainty

Conclusions The results concerning the choice between a tariff and a quota under the assumption of perfect competition and three kinds of uncertainty are summarized in the table. An analysis of the uncertainty, under which a government using a tariff or a quota can determine the value of imports or the quantity domestically supplied (i.e. employment), gives neither the same result for the two instruments (equivalence) nor the same result for the three situations considered. Therefore the choice between a tariff and a quota in case of uncertainty depends on the purpose, and whether the initial uncertainty concerns domestic demand, foreign or domestic supply. This conclusion corresponds to the well-known phenomenon that in case of a disturbance to an open economy the choice between a change in the rate of exchange and a change in the demand policy depends both on the goal and on the kind of disturbance.     

Self-perceptions, government policies and tax compliance in Germany

The policy of choice to fight tax non-compliance is an increase in deterrence, i.e. fines and audits, which seems to be well-grounded theoretically as the economics of crime justifies such an increase of the expected costs of illegal activities. In this paper, the impact of subjectively perceived deterrence on undeclared work is analyzed for the German case. Germany is particularly interesting because it considerably increased deterrence to fight tax non-compliance recently. The data set used for this analysis contains several waves of survey data conducted between 2004 and 2008. According to our evidence, (subjectively perceived) deterrence has an impact on undeclared work, but the influence of social norms is similarly important.     

Sibling spillover effects in school achievement

This paper provides empirical evidence on sibling spillover effects in school achievement using administrative data on 230,000 siblings in England. We extend previous strategies to identify peer effects by exploiting the variation in school test scores across subjects observed at ages 11 and 16 as well as variation in peer quality between siblings. We find a statistically significant positive spillover effect from the older to the younger sibling. Sibling spillovers account for a non‐negligible proportion of the attainment gap between low‐ and higher income pupils in England.