Wirkungen einer EU–weiten Verlustverrechnung auf das Steueraufkommen

Seit einigen Jahren stellt der Europäische Gerichtshof vermehrt Regelungen der nationalen Steuersysteme in Hinblick darauf in Frage, ob sie mit dem EG-Recht konform gehen. Im aktuellen Fall Marks & Spencer entscheidet der Gerichtshof, ob Konzerne Verluste ausländischer Töchter mit inländischen Gewinnen verrechnen dürfen. Welche Wirkung hätte eine EU-weite Verlustverrechnung auf das deutsche Steueraufkommen?Prof. Dr. Clemens Fuest, 36, ist Direktor des Finanzwissenschaftlichen Forschungsinstituts an der Universität zu Köln und Mitglied des Wissenschaftlichen Beirats beim Bundesministerium der Finanzen; Thomas Hemmelgarn, 30, Dipl.-Volkswirt, ist Mitarbeiter an demselben Institut; Fred Ramb, 39, Dipl.-Volkswirt, ist Mitarbeiter der Deutschen Bundesbank, Economic Research Centre, in Frankfurt. Dieser Artikel repräsentiert die persönliche Auffassung der Autoren und entspricht nicht notwendigerweise der Position der Deutschen Bundesbank oder ihrer Mitarbeiter.     

Cross‐Country Evidence on Labor Market Institutions and Young Adult Employment through the Financial Crisis

I develop and analyze a set of cross‐country facts regarding employment and wage setting institutions over the decade surrounding the 2008 financial crisis. Among long‐industrialized countries, young adult employment declined more than prime age employment over this time period. I show that differences in countries' wage setting institutions strongly predict variations in the magnitude of declines in young adult employment. Both unconditionally and conditional on changes in macroeconomic conditions, young adult employment declined 5 percentage points less in countries where wage setting is driven by collective bargaining arrangements than in countries with statutory wage floors. Evidence on the evolution of legislated minimum wage rates and of an asymmetry in the relationship between growth and young adult employment suggest an important role for a standard “wage rigidity” mechanism.     

The magic of the new: How job changes affect job satisfaction

We investigate a crucial event for job satisfaction: changing one's workplace. For representative German panel data, we show that the reason why the previous employment ended is strongly linked to satisfaction with the new job. Workers initiating a change of employer experience extraordinarily high job satisfaction, though in the short term only. To investigate causality, we exploit the event of plant closure as an exogenous trigger of job switching. In this case, we find no significantly positive effect of job changes on job satisfaction. Our findings complement research on workers’ well‐being and concern labor market policies and human resource management.     

Sensitive Survey Questions: Measuring Attitudes Regarding Female Genital Cutting Through a List Experiment

Potential bias in survey responses is higher if sensitive outcomes are measured. This study analyses attitudes towards female genital cutting (FGC) in Ethiopia. A list experiment is designed to elicit truthful answers about FGC support and compares these outcomes with the answers given to a direct question. Our results confirm that the average bias is substantial as answers to direct questions underestimate the FGC support by about 10 percentage points. Moreover, our results provide suggestive but not statistically significant evidence that this bias is more pronounced among uneducated women and women targeted by an NGO intervention (not randomly assigned).     

Opportunities for Smallholders from Developing Countries in Global Value Chains

The current policy debate on opportunities for African smallholders in agricultural markets focuses on the need for proper institutions at the market level or governance in the global value chain (GVC). Both discussions neglect insights from strategic management. We argue that successful inclusion of smallholders in GVCs requires the deployment of strategic resources and capabilities in the farming systems. The consequence of this argument is that the ‘inclusion’ of smallholders in GVCs only makes sense if they have the opportunity to create strategic resources.     

Temporary Layoffs and Unemployment Insurance: Is Experience Rating Desirable?

Abstract. This paper explores how the introduction of an experience-rated system of unemployment insurance affects employment and welfare in a model where implicit contracts between firms and workers give rise to wage rigidities and unemployment. In the literature, it has been argued that experience-rated systems of unemployment insurance may reduce long-term employment as firms anticipate the higher costs of layoffs implied by experience rating. Our analysis shows that the introduction of experience rating may increase or decrease long-term employment but it unambiguously raises welfare.     

The tradeoff between mortgage prepayments and tax-deferred retirement savings

Many households face the tradeoff between paying an extra dollar off the remaining mortgage on their house and saving that extra dollar in tax-deferred accounts (TDAs) used for retirement. We show that, under certain conditions, it becomes a tax arbitrage to reduce mortgage prepayments and to increase TDA contributions because of the tax deductibility of mortgage interest and tax-exemption of qualified retirement savings. Using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances, we document that a significant number of households that are accelerating their mortgage payments instead of saving in TDAs forgo a profitable tax arbitrage opportunity. Finally, we show empirically that this inefficient behavior is unlikely to be driven by liquidity or other financial constraints. Rather, the observed behavior can be attributed to a certain extent to the reluctance of many households to participate in financial markets as either lenders or borrowers.     

Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: Core vs. Periphery

This paper examines business cycle synchronization in the European Monetary Union with a special focus on the core-periphery pattern in the aftermath of the crisis. Using a quarterly index for business cycle synchronization by Cerqueira (Int Econ Econ Policy 10(3):349–363, 2013), our panel data estimates suggest that it is countries belonging to the core that are faced with increased synchronization among themselves after 2007Q4, whereas peripheral countries decreased synchronization with regards to the core, non-EMU countries and among themselves. Correlation coefficients and nonparametric local polynomial regressions corroborate these findings. The usual focus on co-movements and correlations might be misleading, however, since we also find large differences in the amplitude of national cycles. A strong common cycle can thus lead to large differences in cyclical positions even if national cycles are strongly correlated.     

Weitzman Revisited: Emission Standards Versus Taxes with Uncertain Abatement Costs and Market Power of Polluting Firms

Studies dealing with the optimal choice of pollution control instruments under uncertainty have invariably taken it for granted that regulated firms face perfectly competitive markets. By introducing the product market into the stochastic framework of Weitzman (Rev Econ Stud 41:477–491, 1974), this paper shows for the case of a polluting symmetric Cournot oligopoly that Weitzman’s policy rule for choosing emission standards versus taxes with uncertain abatement costs is biased in the presence of market power. Since the oligopolists take into account their influence on the market price, their total abatement effort, including the restriction of output, is less vulnerable to miscalculations of the tax rate compared to price-taking firms. Consequently, the comparative advantage of instruments is shifted in favour of taxes. In a further step, the provided policy recommendations are generalised by abolishing the assumption that firms are symmetric.