Tail Estimates and the Ems Target Zone*

Characteristically, distributions of exchange-rate returns are fat-tailed. We use a nonparametric tail-index estimator based on extreme value theory for seven EMS currencies between April 1979 and October 1991. We find that the behavior of the Belgian franc, the Danish Krone, the French franc, and the Italian lira has become significantly less fat-tailed over time. We attribute this to the decline in the exchange-rate variance as observed in the EMS, which according to the target-zone literature should lead to a convergence of fixed exchange-rate behavior to that of floating rates. A comparison of tail estimates for the Deutsche mark and dollar exchange rates supports this notion.     

Endogenous free riding and the decentralized user-fee financing of spillover goods in a n-region economy

The paper analyzes the strategic effects of decentralized user-fee and enforcement policies for the financing of interregional spillover goods. We derive the equilibrium pricing and enforcement rules for a n-region economy. We show that under mild conditions on the pattern of substitution between spillover goods and contrary to the 2-region case, the decentralized equilibrium cannot be Pareto improved by coordinated policy changes. However, decentralized equilibria are suboptimal from the point of view of utilitarian welfare. We characterize the direction of the distortion for this case. The regions’ incentives for user-fee enforcement are ambiguous in general. With only two regions and if regions only charge non-residents, however, there is overinvestment in user-fee enforcement in the decentralized equilibrium. For the case of a Tullock enforcement function and linear demand for the spillover goods we show that welfare is u-shaped in a parameter that measures the technological advantage of user-fee enforcement.     

Nonlinear target adjustment in corporate liquidity management: an endogenous thresholds approach

We provide new empirical evidence on nonlinear liquidity management in Dutch firms. Our results reveal that liquidity adjustment from below the target is significantly faster than from above. We find no evidence for bands of inaction around the target.     

Optimal redistricting under geographical constraints: Why “pack and crack” does not work

We show that optimal partisan redistricting with geographical constraints is a computationally intractable (NP-complete) problem. In particular, even when voter's preferences are deterministic, a solution is generally not obtained by concentrating opponent's supporters in “unwinnable” districts (“packing”) and spreading one's own supporters evenly among the other districts in order to produce many slight marginal wins (“cracking”).     

Modeling growth options and structural change to reach middle income country status: The case of Ghana

This paper develops a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model to evaluate sources of accelerated growth and structural transformation. It goes beyond stylized and aggregate general equilibrium models by examining country-specific growth options to reach middle income country (MIC) status. We first examine a set of countries that have successfully transformed their economies to inform model and scenario building. We then simulate potentials and trade-offs of selected sector- and factor-specific growth paths for Ghana. Results show that no individual sector's growth acceleration is sufficient for Ghana to reach MIC status by 2015. Manufacturing growth is constrained by its high dependency on agricultural inputs indicating the need for diversification. Services can support rather than drive economy-wide growth. Agriculture must remain the mainstay of economy-wide growth. While this will delay structural change in sectoral composition, it demonstrates that emphasizing agriculture is a viable option for some countries to reach MIC status.     

How to Coordinate Value Generation in Service Networks

The fundamental paradigm shift from traditional value chains to agile service value networks implies new economic and organizational challenges. As coordination mechanisms, auctions have proven to perform quite well in situations where intangible and heterogeneous goods are traded. Nevertheless, traditional approaches in the area of multidimensional combinatorial auctions are not quite suitable to enable the trade of composite services. A flawless service execution and therefore the requester’s valuation highly depends on the accurate sequence of the functional parts of the composition, meaning that in contrary to service bundles, composite services only generate value through a valid order of their components. The authors present an abstract model as a formalization of service value networks. The model comprehends a graph-based mechanism implementation to allocate multidimensional service offers within the network, to impose penalties for non-performance and to determine prices for complex services. The mechanism and the bidding language support various types of QoS attributes and their (semantic) aggregation. It is analytically shown that this variant is incentive compatible with respect to all dimensions of the service offer (quality and price). Based on these results, the authors numerically analyze strategic behavior of participating service providers regarding possible collusion strategies.     

Tax evasion, tax avoidance and shadow economy: introduction

This introduction summarizes the content of the papers published in this volumes.     

The impact of international portfolio composition on consumption risk sharing

Recent empirical work has shown that ongoing international financial integration facilitates cross-country consumption risk sharing. These studies typically find that countries with high equity home bias exhibit relatively low international consumption risk sharing. We extend this line of research and demonstrate that it is not only a country's equity home bias that prevents consumption risk sharing. In addition, the composition of a country's foreign asset portfolio plays an important role. Using panel-data regression for a group of OECD countries over the period 1980–2007, we show that foreign investment bias has additional explanatory power for consumption risk sharing.     

Business Cycle Desynchronisation: Amplitude and Beta vs. Co-movement

A high degree of correlation among the business cycles of individual countries is usually seen as a key criterion for an optimum currency area. However, the elasticity with which countries react to the common cycle is equally important. A country with a non-unitary growth elasticity relative to the common area will experience cyclical divergences at the peak and trough of the common cycle. Despite being characterised by highly correlated business cycles, the euro area suffers from widely differing amplitudes.