Can we improve the perceived quality of economic forecasts?

A number of topics are discussed concerning how economic forecasts can be improved in quality or at least in presentation. These include the following: using 50% uncertainty intervals rather than 95%; noting that even though forecasters use many different techniques, they are all occasionally incorrect in the same direction; that there is a tendency to underestimate changes; that some expectations and recently available data are used insufficiently; lagged forecasts errors can help compensate for structural breaks; series that are more forecastable could be emphasized and that present methods of evaluating forecasts do not capture the useful properties of some methods compared to alternatives.     

Using Limited Information to Support the Decision to Launch a New Product in the Fruit Juice Market: A Teaching Case Study

Fresh Juice Incorporated (FJI) is in the process of determining whether it should launch a new fruit juice, Genetically Enhanced (GE) Juice. The GE Juice meets consumers' demands for a tasty, nutritious product and it would be the first new juice product in the last fifteen years. Before FJI decides to launch GE Juice, it must analyze the uncertainty surrounding market size, market share, and price of GE Juice. Finally, if FJI decides to launch GE Juice, then they must decide if they will bottle the juice themselves or outsource this process. This case teaches students how to discuss the strategic implications of launching a new product and develop a net present value and financial feasibility simulation model given limited information.     

The economic burden of tuberous sclerosis complex in UK patients with renal manifestations: a retrospective cohort study in the clinical practice research datalink (CPRD)

Background: Tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) is a multi-system genetic disorder in which renal manifestations occur in ～50% of children and 80% of adults. Since these often present alongside other manifestations, renal TSC is likely to incur significant costs. This study aims to quantify healthcare resource use (HCRU) and costs for renal TSC patients in the UK.

Methods: TSC patients in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked to Hospital Episodes Statistics were identified from January 1987–June 2013. Clinical data were extracted over the entire history and costs were reported over the most recent 3-year period. HCRU was compared with a matched comparator cohort. Incremental costs were reported and the key cost drivers by primary manifestation category were identified by regression modeling.

Results: A total of 79 renal TSC patients were identified with manifestations including chronic kidney disease stage 3–5 (with prevalence increasing with age) and renal angiomyolipoma. Renal TSC patients consistently reported greater HCRU than the comparator. Inpatient hospitalizations were more frequent for renal TSC patients (3.2 vs 1.6), but length of stay was comparable; however, 70.9% of renal TSC patients recorded no kidney-related procedures ever and averaged <1 test per year in the 3-year period. Average costs for renal TSC patients were nearly 3-fold greater than the comparator (£15,162 vs £5672). Costs increased with additional manifestation categories (£3600: only renal; £27,531: renal with ≥4 additional manifestation categories [25% of patients]). Additional nervous system and dermatology/psychiatric manifestations significantly (p?Conclusions: Renal TSC patients have greater HCRU than the general CPRD population, likely to result from progression of renal disease and additional manifestations; however, surveillance for disease progression appears to be deficient. Inadequate monitoring may contribute to a lack of co-ordinated care and increased healthcare-associated costs. Efforts should be made to follow the TSC guidelines to effectively monitor and treat patients.     

Dangers in the reduction in U.S. international net worth

The great concern exercised over the accuracy of estimates of the net direct investment position as a part of the U.S. international net worth is largely misplaced. By focusing on additions to the U.S. international net worth embodied in real assets owned in foreign countries, analysts divert attention from the large and growing volume of foreign-owned claims in private U.S. financial markets and the implications of those claims for instability in the foreign exchange market and for financial crisis.     

Internationalization of multi-source feedback systems: a six-country exploratory analysis of 360-degree feedback

In the past few years, few human resource practices have received as much attention as multi-source feedback systems (MSFSs). In the US and Canada, it is estimated that over one-third of organizations are using some form of MSFS and recent surveys show that this practice is still gaining popularity. Concurrently, a substantial amount of literature has focused on the effectiveness of this performance management practice. However, while few would dispute the popularity of MSFS, relatively little has been published on the use of these systems outside North America and thus little is known about their form and effectiveness in international contexts. This paper outlines the results of an international survey of MSFS. Interview data from HR managers and consultants from Argentina, Australia, China, Slovakia, Spain and the UK demonstrate that MSFS are being implemented, in slightly different ways, in each of these six countries. The main challenges in the application of MSFS in these various countries are the communication efforts necessary before and after implementation, and the inherent difficulty in giving and receiving feedback. The results of this study also provide data as to the perceived future of MSFS in each of the countries surveyed.     

The transformational model of social activity and economic analysis: a reinterpretation of the work of J.R. Commons

The work of J.R. Commons, I want to argue, bears a close relationship to, is clarified by and informs, recent developments in social theory. Specifically, recent developments in social theory, elaborated under the heading of critical realism, serve to organize or systematize Commons' work in such a way as to defend it against the commonly made criticisms of incoherence and irrelevance to more general or theoretical concerns. On the other hand Commons' work, based as it is upon practical case study and intervention, serves both to extend or ‘deepen’ existing critical realist accounts and demonstrate their relevance for political economy.     

Polarities between Naturalism and Non-Naturalism in Contemporary Economics: An Overview

We provide a dynamic model of banking competition, in which bounded rationality of some competitors explains how the credit cycle is intensified. We model the economic cycle following Tobias F. Rötheli (2012b), who argues that boundedly rational banks, in their Bayesian learning, overestimate the probability of success during booms and underestimate it during recessions. We obtain three main results. First, the model suggests that pessimism/underconfidence is not a powerful driver of credit cycles. Instead, it supports the conclusion that it is euphoria during large upswings that leads to the next crunch. Second, the dynamization of the model provides further insight into the way boundedly rational competition intensifies the credit cycle. Third, it additionally predicts that the effects of behavioral biases are more pervasive when the quality of the niche markets is lower.     

Supply Chain Management Competency and Firm Financial Success

Supply chain management (SCM) plays a major role in creating (or destroying) shareholder value by influencing the three major drivers of firm financial performance: revenue, operating costs, and working capital. Yet, the relationship between SCM competency and firm financial performance is not well‐established. Drawing on the resource‐based view of the firm, this study assesses this relationship using Delphi‐style opinion data from AMR Research’s Supply Chain Top 25 rankings to assess SCM competency and Altman’s (1968) Z‐score statistic as the measure of financial success. The study findings show that firms recognized by industry experts for SCM competency have significantly higher Z‐scores than their close competitors and industry averages.