THE SQUARED ORNSTEIN-UHLENBECK MARKET

We study a complete market containing J assets, each asset contributing to the production of a single commodity at a rate that is a solution to the squared Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (Cox-Ingersoll-Ross) SDE. The assets are owned by K agents with CRRA utility functions, who follow feasible consumption/investment regimes so as to maximize their expected time-additive utility from consumption. We compute the equilibrium for this economy and determine the state-price density process from market clearing. Reducing to a single (representative) agent, and exploiting the relation between the squared-OU and squared-Bessel SDEs, we obtain closed-form expressions for the values of bonds, assets, and options on the total asset value. Typical model parameters are estimated by fitting bond price data, and we use these parameters to price the assets and options numerically. Implications for the total asset price itself as a diffusion are discussed. We also estimate implied volatility surfaces for options and bond yields.     

Comparing the impacts of Internet technology and national culture on online usage and purchase from a four-country perspective

The Internet has successfully generated an ever-expanding cohort of users for all its major concomitant activities, including information gathering, communications and transactions. So far no attempt has been made to validate whether such a success is so deep as to transcend national cultures. Nor any work has been conducted to compare the internationalisation¹ performances between online usage activities. The current study addresses these two research gaps from the perspective of four countries, i.e. Britain, Germany, Japan and Taiwan. Results show that although the technological forces have been quite successful in internationalising overall online usage activities, they succumb to the cultural forces as far as only the transactions activity, or more colloquially online purchase, is concerned. This indicates the relative difficulty in internationalising online purchase vis-à-vis other online usage activities. Further research on locating a series of step functions or kick-off time points regarding the development of online purchase is suggested.     

Dynamics of the federal funds target rate: a nonstationary discrete choice approach

We apply a discrete choice approach to model the empirical behaviour of the Federal Reserve in changing the federal funds target rate, the benchmark of short‐term market interest rates in the US. Our methods allow the explanatory variables to be nonstationary as well as stationary. This feature is particularly useful in the present application as many economic fundamentals that are monitored by the Fed and are believed to affect decisions to adjust interest rate targets display some nonstationarity over time. The chosen model successfully predicts the majority of the target rate changes during the time period considered (1994–2001) and helps to explain strings of similar intervention decisions by the Fed. Based on the model‐implied optimal interest rate, our findings suggest that there is a lag in the Fed's reaction to economic shocks during this period. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Intergenerational Supply of Loggers Under Conditions of Declining Economic Well-Being

This paper addresses the supply-side explanations of a logger shortage by estimating an occupational choice model that considers the role of earnings, nonpecuniary determinants and intergenerational factors. Our results showed that: (1) relative earnings have no statistically significant effect on career choice; (2) improvement in the public image of loggers substantially increases entry into logging; and (3) a strong intergenerational supply linkage exists but is currently being eroded.     

Factors that affect accountant's perceptions of alternative work arrangements

Advances in technology have impacted accounting careers with resulting changes in where, when and how accountants perform their job duties. In addition, employee attitudes towards, and need for, better work/life balance has led to more firms offering alternate work arrangements (AWA). Research suggests that AWA programs can lead to many benefits for both employers and employees. Despite the prevalence of these programs there are relatively few accountants working under these arrangements and concerns about work/life balance continue. This study examines factors that shape perceptions of the cost and benefits associated with the adoption and/or support of AWAs across work culture, gender and participation experience. Our results suggest that work environment had a significant effect on perceptions of AWAs. Public accountants perceived greater costs related to career advancement but correspondingly less concern about administrative issues than management accountants. We also found that accountants who have participated (or are currently participating in an AWA), perceived greater benefits and less concern for potential negative consequences to their careers than non-participants. Finally, women perceived greater benefits to result from participation in an AWA and men perceived correspondingly more costs. Regardless, both genders perceived that AWAs were not strictly a women's issue. These findings contribute to our understanding of alternate work arrangements and point to factors that must be addressed to increase the acceptance and success of these programs.     

Estimation of Agricultural Production Functfons on a World-Wide Basis

Agricultural production is becoming increasingly capital and research intensive. Hayami and Ruttan, along with others, have developed and applied the metaproduction functional approach to the examination of this phenomenon on a worldwide basis. Limitations to the approach derive from a restrictive functional form chosen for estimation, and from a restrictive specification of agricultural capital and land. This study addresses those difficulties by use of the flexible translog functional form for estimation and by specifying an overall agricultural capital index and a land measure incorporating differences in the quality of land (agricultural natural resource) endowments. Estimation results indicate that agricultural comparative advantage in production is likely shifting to developed countries relative to LDC's due to capital constraints in the latter. Also agricultural potential (i.e., land endowments) do not serve to differentiate nations on the basis of agricultural production. Investment in agriculture, including land improvement, is key to the determination of comparative advantage. La production agricole fait appelle de plus en plus a beaucoup de re-cherches et de capitaux. Hayami et Ruttan, avec d'autres, ont developpe et appliqué l'approche fonctionnelle métaproduction pour examiner ce phénomena à l‘échelle du monde. Les limitations de cette approache provienneent de la forme fonctionnelle restrictive choisie pour l'estimation, et de la spécification restrictive de capitaux et terres agricoles. Cette étude traite ces difficultés en utilisant la formule “translog’ fonctionnelle adaptable pour l'estimation et en spécificant un indice du capital agricole global et une mesure de terre qui incorpore les différences du qualité des terres agricoles (ressources agricoles naturelles). Tous les résultats estimatifs indiquent que l'avantage comparatif agricole de production s'incline vers les pays développés parraport aux PMD dû aux constraintes de capitaux dans ces derniers. Aussi la capacité agricole (c'est à dire la richesse des sols) ne sert pas à différencier les nations sur le plan de production agricole. L'investissement dans l'agriculte, notamment l'amélioration de terre, est la cief pour déterminer l'avantage comparatif.     

A rational foundation for wishful exchange rate forecasts

Professor Takatoshi Ito in a recent American Economic Review paper documents that exporters and importers have biased exchange rate forecasts and the biases are in opposite directions. At first glance, it is difficult to provide a rational foundation for such behavior. Professor Ito hypothesizes that these forecasts are the result of wishful expectations. However, if forecasts are stochastic, then minimization of a quadratic loss function results in a rational hedge applied to either $/¥ or ¥/$. The different perspectives of importers and exporters determines which form is hedged and determines the direction of the bias.