Abstracts

Quality & Quantity -     

Analysis of arrest rates for trends in criminality

During the 1960s, the United States experienced a substantial increase in crime with the rates of reported crime more than doubling. It has been postulated that the increase in the proportion of young adults in the population which also occurred during the Sixties is a primary factor in the increase in crime. In this paper, we attempt to explore this question by partitioning the recent increases in rates between an increasing crime-committing propensity for various demographic groups on one hand, and a changing demographic mix to the other. We do this by analyzing arrest rates by demographic group over time. However, since arrest rates are a complex function of both criminality and police activity, a model is developed which attempts to distinguish between these phenomena. The model is estimated using data on age, race, and sex-specific arrest rates for Pittsburgh residents over the period 1967–1972. The results of the analysis suggest that there has been no significant increase in criminality for men in the Pittsburgh population, while there is some evidence of increased criminality for women. However, this increase may reflect an increased willingness of the police to arrest women. We hesitate to generalize our conclusions too widely from the experience of a single urban center. Additional analysis, using the model developed here, of arrest rates from other cities or regions would do much to illuminate this very significant issue.     

BOOK REVIEWS AND NOTES

Book reviews in this article: G.D.H. COLE AND INDUSTRIAL DEMOCRACY: A REVIEW: The World of Labour Introduction by John Lovell G.D.H. COLE AND INDUSTRIAL DEMOCRACY: A REVIEW: Self-Government in Industry Introduction by J. G. Corina G.D.H. COLE AND INDUSTRIAL DEMOCRACY: A REVIEW: Workshop Organisation Introduction by A. I. Marsh WORKPLACE INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS: Building: Teamwork or Conflict? by L. G. Bayley The Management of Wage Payment Systems by Alan Gillespie Labour Relations on the Docks by M. Jackson ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOUR: Social Psychology of the Work Organisation by A. S. Tannenbaum Organisational Problems in European Manufacture by T. D. Weinshall LABOUR ECONOMICS: Manpower Economics by E. B. Jakubaus and Neil A. Palomba Labour Economics by J. E. King Unemployment and Wage Inflation with Special Reference to Britain and the U.S.A. by J. Taylor UNEMPLOYMENT: Regional Unemployment Differences in Great Britain by P. C. Cheshire Interregional Migration Models and their Application to Great Britain by R. Weeden The Changing Pattern of Employment—Regional Specialisation and Industrial Localisation in Britain by M. Chisholm and J. Oeppen Men Out of Work—A Study of Unemployment in Three English Towns by M. J. Hill, R. M. Harrison, A. V. Sargeant and V. Talbot Do The Poor Want To Work? A Social-Psychological Study of Work Orientation by L. Goodwin Marienthal: The Sociography of an Unemployed Community by M. Jahoda, P. F. Lazarsfeld and H. Zeisel b     

Monotonizing empirical Bayes estimators for a class of of discrete distributions with monotone likelihood ratio

A procedure is given for the construction of a monotone estimator that dominates a given estimator for a class of discrete distributions with monotone likelihood ratio. This procedure is applied to some empirical Bayes estimators. Monte Carlo results are given that demonstrate the usefulness of monotonizing.     

A comparison of approximately optimal stratification given proportional allocation with other methods of stratification and allocation

Summary In this article, we shall present an approximately optimal method for constructing stratum boundary points when the sample is allocated proportionally. The method is based on an equal partitioning of the cumulative off ^1/3, wheref is the distribution of the stratification variable. We show that in many practical situations this technique compares favourably with approximately optimal stratification and allocation methods previously suggested.

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Zusammenfassung In diesem Artikel stellen wir eine annähernd optimale Methode zur Festlegung von Stratabegrenzungspunkten dar, die für proportional angeordnete Samples gilt. Die Methode basiert auf einer gleichen Einteilung derf ^1/3-Kummulation, wobeif die Verteilung der Stratifikations-variablen darstellt. Wir zeigen, daß diese Technik in vielen praktischen Fällen gegenüber den bisher vorgeschlagenen Methoden zur optimalen Stratifikation und Zuordnung nicht schlecht abschneidet.

     

The economics of decision making in the new manufacturing firm

Decision making in a modern manufacturing firm producing a variety of products while meeting order deadlines appears at first to have little basis in the economic Theory of the Firm. It is shown that optimal budget allocations, the fractions of revenue expended on inputs, are likely to remain constant for a succession of orders for each of a family of products, thus simplifying the decision process. Well-known heuristic decision rules may not only have a sound basis in economic theory but are evidently the best way to incorporate economic logic into a stream of fast-moving decisions. The discussion is extended to an explanation of the economic value of decision making to the firm, and why this value is usually assumed to be zero in theory.     

Aggregation effects on price and expenditure elasticities in a quadratic almost ideal demand system

Abstract.  While it is well known that demand elasticities calculated at the macro level will in general differ from those calculated at the micro level because of aggregation effects, there remain the questions of how large the effects are and how they vary with the degree of inequality in the income distribution. We explore these questions with models based on a quadratic version of the Almost Ideal Demand System. We investigate the elasticity differences theoretically and then calibrate the models and generate numerical results, using income data for seven countries with widely different distributions. The aggregation effects are found generally to be rather small, even with highly unequal income distributions.     

Immigration and Economic Welfare: Resource and Environmental Aspects*

The relation between immigration and the economic welfare of residents b analyzed for resource-rich economies (such as Australia) both under competitive conditions and when various distortions are present Immigration provides efficiency gains for residents under distortion–free competition for standard ‘gains from trade’ reasons. Such reasons, however, tend to be ignored by immigration and ‘optimal population’ theorists who raise the issue of restricting immigration without explicitly referring to the distortions. In situations where distortions and externalities are present, we argue that it is generally preferable to devise policies which specifically target the distortions than to restrict immigration.