The leontief question: A Cobb-Douglas approach to simulating the U.S. income distribution in Autarky

Zusammenfassung Leontiefs Frage: Ein Cobb-Douglas Verfahren zur Simulierung der U.S.-Einkommensverteilung bei Autarkie. - Die Frage, die Leontief 1956 in seinem klassischen Artikel über die komparativen Vorteile der USA stellte, war, wie sich die Einkommensverteilung bei Autarkie von derjenigen bei internationalem Handel unterscheide. Normalerweise ist es notwendig, ein Modell des allgemeinen Gleichgewichts mit prohibitiven Z?llen zu simulieren, um zur Einkommensverteilung bei Autarkie zu gelangen. In diesem Artikel wird jedoch gezeigt, da\ in einer Volkswirtschaft, die dadurch charakterisiert ist, da\ die Konsumentenpr?ferenzen und die sektoralen Produktionsfunktionen vom Cobb-Douglas-Typ sind, der Zustand der Autarkie durch eine einfache Matrix-Multiplikation simuliert werden kann. Die Faktoranteile bei Autarkie werden als unabh?ngig vom Faktorangebot abgeleitet. Das Paradoxon wird best?tigt, wenn Kapital und Arbeit homogen sind, w?hrend eine Disaggregation die Ergebnisse erheblich beeintr?chtigt.

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Résumé La question de Leontief: Une approche Cobb-Douglas à simuler la distribution de revenu des Etats Unis en autarcie. - La question posée par Leontief dans son article classique en 1956 sur l’avantage comparatif est, comment la distribution de revenu sous l’autarcie se compare avec celle d’une économie ouverte. Généralement, il est nécessaire de simuler un modèle d’équilibre général avec des droits de douane prohibitifs pour obtenir une distribution de revenu autarcique. Cependant, les auteurs démontrent que, dans une économie caractérisée par des préférences des consommateurs et par des fonctions de production sectorales de type Cobb-Douglas, l’autarcie peut être simulée par une simple multiplication de matrice. Les portions des facteurs autarciques sont dérivées comme être indépendantes de l’offre des facteurs. Le paradoxe se confirme si le capital et la main d’oeuvre sont homogènes, mais une désagrégation affecte le résultat gravement.

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Resumen La pregunta de Leontief: un modelo Cobb-Douglas para simulaciones de la distribución del ingreso en los EEUU bajo autarquía. - La pregunta que Leontief formuló en su artículo clásico (1956) sobre las ventajas comparativas de los EEU fué, en que se diferencia la distribución del ingreso bajo autarqufa de la que prevalece bajo comercio internacional. En general es necesario simular un modelo de equilibrio general con aranceles prohibitivos para obtener la distribución del ingreso bajo autarqufa. Nosotros, empero, demostramos que en una economfa caracterizada por preferencias de los consumidores y funciones de producción sectoriales del tipo Cobb-Douglas la situación bajo autarqufa puede ser simulada através de una simple multiplicación de matrices. Las cuotas correspondientes a los factores bajo autarquía se derivan como si hieran ofertas independientes de factures. La paradoja se confirma para capital y trabajo homogéneos, pero los resultados son muy sensibles al nivel de desagregación.

     

STRUCTURAL SHIFTS IN UK UNEMPLOYMENT 1979–2005: THE TWIN IMPACTS OF FINANCIAL DEREGULATION AND COMPUTERIZATION

This paper analyses UK unemployment in the period 1979–2005. Structural breaks are identified endogenously and they coincide with key institutional changes associated with financial deregulation and computerization in the New Economy. A vector error correction model is estimated and it confirms that computerization and financial deregulation have had counteracting impacts on UK unemployment. The results are consistent with three hypotheses: technological advances associated with computerization have moderated inflationary struggles between firms and insiders by increasing total factor productivity; financial deregulation has generated financial fragility fostering rises in unemployment; financial deregulation and computerization together have been associated with shifts from manufacturing towards services, fostering structural unemployment.     

COMPARING POST-COLD WAR MILITARY CONVERSION IN THE UNITED STATES AND RUSSIA

According to the conventional wisdom, military conversion in Russia would be more difficult than in the United States because Russia does not have the developed market infrastructure and institutions that help western defense firms redeploy resources for civilian production. A closer look raises doubts about these arguments. Western defense firms have had difficulties with conversion because they cannot compete with the existing relatively efficient civilian firms. Meanwhile, the principal competitors of the Russian defense firms, the large Russian civilian enterprises, are closer in nature to defense enterprises than to efficient market firms. While this does not bode well for the Russian economy in general, the defense enterprises should not find themselves at a significant disadvantage in the civilian markets. Two effects can be distinguished. On the one hand, due to the more developed market infrastructure, the U.S. economy is presumably good at redeploying defense-related resources across firm boundaries. On the other hand, the large and efficient civilian sector in the United States makes the marginal "civilian" value of the redeployed resources low. It is the interaction of these factors, rather than the degree of development of market infrastructure alone, that determines the relative difficulty of military conversion. Additionally, empirical evidence based on regional data indicates that despite enormous defense expenditure cuts, the economic performance of Russia's regions is only relatively weakly correlated with the regions' dependency on defense industry.     

Recent evolution of land use systems in the Abruzzi region, Italy

Agriculture in the Abruzzi mountain area of Italy's Mezzogiorno region has been drastically transformed over the past 20 years. This article describes the traditional land-use systems and the processes by which they have changed to modern farming or fallen into decline. Traditional farming still has a strong influence, even where new crops such as grapes and peaches are being grown. A confusion of systems exists, ranging from the most conservative mixed farming to intensive monoculture.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL TRACTOR INVESTMENT MODELS

An implicit rental price approach is used to analyse the determinants of farm tractor investment at the aggregate level. Three models, based on different assumed factor substitutabilities, are compared. Variations in the rental price of tractors appear to have less effect on demand than variations in factors affecting the profitability of the cropping enterprise as a whole. The implications for forecasting and for policy instruments, such as the investment allowance, are discussed.