BRITISH POTATO STABILISATION POLICY IN A EUROPEAN CONTEXT

This paper presents a simulation model, based on a stochastic spatial equilibrium framework, for the GB potato market, allowing for trade with the Continent and the operation of domestic stabilisation policy. The model is used to explain the operation of the two policy instruments — support buying and area control — and to evaluate policy options and consequences. The notion of a cost-effective support buying programme is introduced and it is found that current policy is in the region of cost-effectiveness. Quota area, subject to the constraint that downside price risk is avoided, is found to lead to a trade-off between the consumer interest and the financial cost of policy. This trade-off is examined in a conventional welfare analysis and in probability terms. Subject to certain caveats, it is concluded that current policy tends to provided price stabilisation rather than price enhancement for producers.     

Money substitutes and monetary policy in the U.K., 1922–1974

In the U.K., following the publication of the Radcliffe Report, it was widely believed that monetary policy was impotent because any attempt to make use of monetary policy would be fully offset by perfect money substitutes which were not controlled by the monetary authorities. This paper tests whether such substitutes exist. The technique is to fit a money demand function to a long run of data allowing the interest elasticity to vary from observation to observation, and using a procedure which permits infinite values of the elasticity. It was found that, although the elasticity does vary, no observation was consistent with the Radcliffe view. This was true for both interest rates tried, and the function proved very stable when tested. We conclude that the Radcliffe Hypothesis can be decisively rejected.     

Scientific research evaluation: a review of methods and various contexts of their application

The author has conducted a critical review of methods for evaluating R and D, focussing on levels above the individual project or researcher. Methods are classified as peer review, interview and questionnaire, qualitative methods, and case studies. The author reviews their methodological strengths and weaknesses, the types of criteria applied (eg internal or external) in judging their values, and the uses to which the results of the evaluations are put, especially in policy-making.
She concludes that at the level considered evaluations have come to stay, but she can find no accepted rationale guiding the choice of method for a particular purpose or circumstance. Caution is therefore needed in selecting methods. She points out the need for empirical study of the effects of such evaluations.     

Some implications of the natural rate hypotheses

Changes in the anticipated and actual levels of inflation change the incentive to hold monetary and nonmonetary assets. We present a model with a production sector and markets for labor, capital, bonds, and money. The response of the model to changes in the anticipated inflation rate is derived. Restrictions implied by the various natural rate hypotheses are discussed. An asymmetry in the response of the economy to anticipated inflation and deflation makes the natural rate conditions more plausible for inflationary as opposed to deflationary equilibria. A new version of the liquidity trap is suggested by the analysis.