Fake Sales: A Dynamic Pricing Perspective

Some sellers display high “regular” prices, but mark down these prices the vast majority of the time, advertising the good as “on sale” or “discounted”. This note suggests a framework for understanding the practice, emphasising the role of buyer uncertainty about their future valuations for the good. We argue that so‐called “regular” prices set buyers’ expectations regarding future prices, expectations that need not be tethered to the prices actually set. By manipulating upwards buyers’ expectations of future prices, the seller can increase demand for the good at the current “sale” price, increasing profits.     

Testing Temporal Reliability and Carry-over Effect: The Role of Correlated Responses in Test-retest Reliability Studies

Test-retest studies help establish the reliability of contingent valuation (CV) responses but must confront the problem that the initial response may influence subsequent responses, and thus weaken conclusions. We develop a model that tests the influence of heterogeneous preferences and previous responses. By estimating a model of sportfishing, we show that correlation between answers to a CV question is induced by heterogeneous preferences.     

Optimum government credibility in an open-economy fiscal expansion

A real open-economy model is constructed in which the government's commitment to a future fiscal expansion is not credible. Government credibility (measured by the growth rate of the probability that the expansion will occur) becomes a parameter of the system and appears directly in the eigenvalues. Simulations are performed demonstrating the effect of credibility on GNP, the exchange rate, and other variables. Lastly, the optimum credibility is determined which minimizes a loss function associated with deviations from full employment.     

Dimensions of International Negotiation: A Test of Iklé's Typology

Results from statistical analyses of 30 cases of international negotiations supported Iklé's typology of negotiating objectives. The cases, sampled from the collection of Pew Case Studies in International Affairs, were distinguished in terms of five objectives: innovation, redistribution, extension, normalization, and side effects. In addition, a sixth objective was identified: negotiations concerning the creation of multilateral regimes. These cases focused on issues that surfaced on the international agenda during the 1980s. Each type had a relatively distinct profile based on such aspects of negotiation as the number of parties and issues, bargaining strategies, media exposure, stability of the process, and types of outcomes. The methodology contributes to the state-of-the art in comparative analysis and the results have implications for the development of middle-range theories of negotiation. They also contribute to practice, by enabling negotiators to evaluate future cases in terms of knowledge about past cases.     

International Competition for Multinational Investment

We examine the economic justification for providing investment subsidies to foreign-owned multinationals. These provide employment opportunities and generate demand for domestic intermediate inputs, produced by domestic workers with increasing returns to scale. Offering subsidies to multinationals may be in the national interest if the investment raises the net value of domestic production. When agglomerative forces are sufficiently strong, a subsidy that attracts the first foreign firm may induce several to enter, establishing a thriving modern sector. With a limited number of foreign enterprises, countries may compete to attract investment. This subsidy competition transfers much of the rents to the multinationals.
JEL classification: F 12; F 23     

Technological Threat and Opportunity Assessment

One of the major challenges in the management of innovation is a practical and useful implementation of technology forecasting. This article proposes the concept of aniticpating the technological future, and that a structured approach to this concept could be an invaluable aid to technical decision-making. The notion of technological threat and opportunity assessment is presented as a useful framework for anticipating technological change. This notion is based on a dual approach.Firstly, a rapidly changing global technological landscape necessitates keeping track of technological developments. However, since we are dealing with innovation (rather than mere invention), the market implications are as important as the technological ones and have to be accounted for as such. Secondly, any organisation could be considered to be technology-based to some or other degree, implying that technologies have the ability to affect the bottom line of the organisation in some way. It is thus required to assess the business impact of such technologies, typically through a technology or innovation audit.Having assessed specific technological threats and opportunities facing the organisation, an innovation strategy needs to be developed in response to the identified threats and opportunities. Various possible offensive and/or defensive responses should be considered, culminating in the selection and implementation of an optimal strategy.     

Gas Utility Prices in a Restructured Industry

The natural gas industry has witnessed significant policy changes since 1978. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has undertaken a number of policy initiatives designed to promote competition in the natural gas industry. These initiatives have affected both natural gas pipeline and local gas distribution companies. This study provides an empirical examination of the impact of restructuring on local gas distribution utilities' residential, commercial, and industrial prices.     

Bargaining with asymmetric information in non-stationary markets

Summary. The Rubinstein and Wolinsky bargaining-in-markets framework is modified by the introduction of asymmetric information and non-stationarity. Non-stationarity is introduced in the form of an arbitrary stochastic Markov process which captures the dynamics of market entry and pairwise matching. A new technique is used for establishing existence and characterizing the unique outcome of a non-stationary market equilibrium. The impact of market supply and demand on bilateral bargaining outcomes and matching probabilities is explored. The results are useful for examining such questions as why coordination failures and macroeconomic output fluctuations are correlated with real and monetary shocks. Received: July 22, 1994; revised version: January 21, 1998