Two is not too many for monopoly

Many research contributions have investigated the identity of the leader in oligopolistic markets. As a general rule, this literature points to the leader being either the most efficient, the largest or the best informed player. However, there tend to be exceptions to this rule and it is unclear who will become the leader when firms at the same time are different in size, efficiency of production and/or the quality of the information they have. The present paper reveals insights regarding this last question. As such, it points to the elements that really matter to explain for leadership when firms are different from each other in more than one respect. It turns out that the most efficient firm becomes the leader, regardless whether or not its rival has invested in more capacity. While this result tends to be in line with the previous findings regarding the identity of the leader being the relatively more efficient firm, it contradicts the dominant firm scenario regarding price leadership. This is the result of enlarging the strategy space of the players, by including a buyout option. As such, the paper provides the foundations and hence a theoretical justification for price leadership out of a collusive motive. Since a priori the model also does not exclude a barometric price leadership outcome, it is appropriate to conclude that the buyout option truly is a collusive device strong enough to suppress other reasons for price leadership. Therefore, the arrangements observed in reality aiming at the implementation of buyout possibilities have to be watched very closely from an antitrust perspective.     

The contagion externality of a superspreading event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID‐19

Large in‐person gatherings of travelers who do not socially distance are classified as the “highest risk” for COVID‐19 spread by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). From August 7–16, 2020, nearly 500,000 motorcycle enthusiasts converged on Sturgis, South Dakota for its annual rally in an environment without mask‐wearing requirements or other mitigating policies. This study is the first to explore this event's public health impacts. First, using anonymized cell phone data, we document that foot traffic at restaurants/bars, retail establishments, and entertainment venues rose substantially at event locations. Stay‐at‐home behavior among local residents fell. Second, using a synthetic control approach, we find that the COVID‐19 case rate increased substantially in Meade County and in the state of South Dakota in the month following the Rally. Finally, using a difference‐in‐differences model to assess nationwide spread, we find that following the Sturgis event, counties outside of South Dakota that contributed the highest inflows of rally attendees experienced a 6.4–12.5% increase in COVID‐19 cases relative to counties without inflows. Our findings highlight that local policy decisions assessing the tradeoff between local economic benefits and COVID‐19 health costs will not be socially optimal in the presence of large contagion externalities.     

纤维的供给与需求:涤纶和锦纶价值链的结构转变

石化产品高昂的价格推动化纤产业链结构转变 随着世界经济表现出明显的上升势头,经济学家们开始用一种悲观的态度密切关注全球原油的情况.与此同时,由于一系列情节原料标准和规定的出台,美国汽油的价格正承受着很大的压力,使得汽油和供应系统都受到了很大影响.但是,正如基础能源和汽油价格上涨一样,基本芳香族和化学原料价格也有所增长.涤纶和腈纶原料价格增长背后的玄机其实和所有市场化的商品一样--中国需求的增长和最近几年经济下滑阶段投资不足导致生产和物流对每一个细节的微小变化都十分敏感.这种状况看起来暂时不会缓解,当市场期待纤维价格出现缓和趋势的时候,生产应该遵从一定规划,否则毫无计划的储运损耗将继续造成不稳定的上升趋势,同时,纤维交易价格会继续削弱纤维和纺织领域的利润空间.     

Human resource competencies: An empirical assessment

With data from 12,689 associates of human resource (HR) professionals in 1500 businesses in 109 firms, this research represents an extensive assessment of HR competencies. It extends current HR theory and practice in two ways. First, it proposes specific competencies HR professionals may demonstrate to add value to a business. Second, it offers an empirical assessment of how these competencies affect the performance of HR professionals as perceived by their Associates. The results indicate that when HR professionals demonstrate competencies in business knowledge, delivery of HR, and management of change, then HR professionals are perceived by their associates as more effective. © 1995 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

European Agricultural Biotechnology Preferences and Policy: Growth and Trade Implications

European Union policies effectively prohibit the production and consumption of genetically modified agricultural products. This paper examines the prohibition's effects on research and development, innovation, trade flows, and economic growth using a Heckscher–Ohlin–Samuelson trade model with a neo‐ Schumpeterian approach. Restrictive European Union policies on biotechnology production and consumption result in: an effective export subsidy of capital to the South; changing trade flows; North America being the dominant producer of biotechnology research and development; the South being a dominant producer of biotechnology products; and the European Union being the dominant producer of traditional agricultural products.     

Interactive visualization of 3D mantle convection

The current availability of thousands of processors at many high performance computing centers has made it feasible to carry out, in near real time, interactive visualization of 3D mantle convection temperature fields, using grid configurations having 10–100 million unknowns. We will describe the technical details involved in carrying out this endeavor, using the facilities available at the Laboratory of Computational Science and Engineering (LCSE) at the University of Minnesota. These technical details involve the modification of a parallel mantle convection program, ACuTEMan; the usage of client–server socket based programs to transfer upwards of a terabyte of time series scientific model data using a local network; a rendering system containing multiple nodes; a high resolution PowerWall display, and the interactive visualization software, DSCVR. We have found that working in an interactive visualizastion mode allows for fast and efficient analysis of mantle convection results.     

Budget impact of everolimus for the treatment of progressive,well-differentiated,non-functional neuroendocrine tumors of gastrointestinal or lung origin that are advanced or metastatic

Background: Advanced neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) are a rare malignancy with considerable need for effective therapies. Everolimus is a mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) inhibitor approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and European Medicines Agency (EMA) in 2016 for treatment of adults with progressive, well-differentiated, non-functional NETs of gastrointestinal (GI) or lung origin that are unresectable, locally advanced, or metastatic.

Objective: To assess the 3-year budget impact for a typical US health plan following availability of everolimus for treatment of GI and lung NETs.

Methods An economic model was developed that considered two perspectives: an entire health plan and a pharmacy budget. The total budget impact included costs of drug therapies, administration, hospitalizations, physician visits, monitoring, and adverse events (AEs). The pharmacy model only considered drug costs.

Results: In a US health plan with 1 million members, the model estimated 66 patients with well-differentiated, non-functional, and advanced or metastatic GI NETs and 20 with lung NETs undergoing treatment each year. Total budget impact in the first through third year after FDA approval ranged from $0.0568–$0.1443 per member per month (PMPM) for GI NETs and from $0.0181–$0.0355 PMPM for lung NETs. The total budget impact was lower than the pharmacy budget impact because it included cost offsets from administration and AE management for everolimus compared with alternative therapies (e.g. chemotherapies).

Limitations: Because GI and lung NETs are rare diseases with limited published data, several assumptions were made that may influence interpretation of results.

Conclusions: The budget impact for everolimus was minimal in this rare disease area with a high unmet need, largely due to low disease prevalence. These results should be considered in the context of significant clinical benefits potentially provided by everolimus, including significantly longer progression-free survival (PFS) for advanced GI and lung NET patients.     

什么因素促使国际油价长期居高不下?

在未来5～10年里,世界大多数人不能够就近并尽其所能地购买和消费包括石油在内的大宗商品,所以牛市将会持续.维持国际油价长期居高不下的主要因素包括:1)世界经济发展形势良好;2)通货膨胀得到有效控制;3)美元大幅贬值;4)石油输出国组织控制石油供应量;5)原油库存减少;6)全球炼油能力无法满足需求;7)石油生产国和消费国对全球石油供需的预测值差异较大,供应无法满足需求.虽然石油价格很高,但需求仍在增长,整个供应链的产能仍然很紧张,石油和天然气在能源中的主导地位并没有面临很大的挑战,这可能就是问题的根本所在.