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11.
Two important empirical features of US unemployment are that shocks to the series seem rather persistent and that it seems to rise faster during recessions than that it falls during expansions. To jointly capture these features of long memory and nonlinearity, we put forward a new time series model and evaluate its empirical performance. We find that the model describes the data rather well and that it outperforms related competitive models on various measures of fit. 相似文献
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Martin D 《Harvard business review》2003,81(10):44-50, 52, 54, 136
A golden statue of a winged youth once perched on the roof of AT&T's old headquarters. But when AT&T lowered the 24-foot-high statue for regilding so that it could be placed in the company's new headquarters, the chairman was shocked to discover that the figure was anatomically correct. So he decreed that it also be gelded. The altered "Golden Boy" thus became a metaphor for AT&T's recent embattled history, and it serves as a cautionary symbol for all companies operating in today's brutal business environment, where perception can be as important as reality. While image consultants and executives work to gild a company's image, special interest groups and the media can geld a company with countless little cuts. The author, a former executive vice president of public relations for AT&T, provides an insider's view of some of the company's most painful public-relations scrapes. They include the collapse of two apparent CEO succession plans, AT&T's inability to meet heightened expectations after Mike Armstrong was appointed CEO, and the racially charged furor over a cartoon in an employee publication. The author offers four lessons: Don't become hypnotized by your own buzz; understand the way the business media think; address the needs of all your stakeholders; and be sensitive to the possible emotional resonance of what appear to be straightforward facts. To illustrate the final point, the author mentions AT&T's elimination of 40,000 jobs in 1996. Wall Street was impressed, but NBC's Tom Brokaw said the workforce reduction might signal "another long, anxious year for the American middle class." No rational argument from AT&T could overcome the layoffs' symbolic impact. Wounded but wiser after numerous public-relations battles, the company eventually learned to stop aggregating job-reduction information for the media. 相似文献
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Dick R. Wittink 《Journal of Product Innovation Management》1989,6(4):289-292
In a recent article, Page and Rosenbaum [ Journal of Product Innovation Management 4; 120–137 (June 1987)] discuss the use of conjoint analysis at Sunbeam Corporation. Their article provides a nice illustration of a conjoint application to food processor appliance redesign decisions. In this note, Dick Wittink compares characteristics of Sunbeam's approach to both established and more recent results reported in the conjoint literature. 相似文献
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The internationalization of business is the subject of an extensivetheoretical literature as well as a growing number of historicalstudies. Historians have paid relatively little attention tothe development of multinationals in the service sector, andstudies about international publishing are especially scarce.This article discusses the early internationalization of twoDutch publishing firms, Kluwer (now Wolters Kluwer) and Elsevier(now Reed Elsevier) and confronts these case histories withthe evolutionary theory of internationalization. The Dutch casesunderline the important role of experience, knowledge and learningas well as of the national context in which companies develop.They also show that these factors allow for very different trajectoriesof internationalization within the same branch of business andthe same country. 相似文献
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The sustainability of agricultural systems has become a major focus for debates about future human survival. Much of the argument appears to rely on simplistic interpretation of ecological models, and fails adequately to define what sustainability objectives are being sought. We explore the implications of two alternative approaches to agricultural sustainability: the Critical Limits view which would require future farming systems to accept the ecosystem-imposed limits on the number of people in the world and the lifestyle they can enjoy; and the Competing Objectives view would balance agricultural sustainability with economic viability, reduction of environmental harm and fulfilling public demands for food and landscape benefits. The development of farming systems of the future will depend on which of these views is adopted by planners and policy makers.This paper challenges some of the ecological assumptions underlying the Critical Limits approach and questions the conventional view that extensive farming systems are more sustainable agriculturally than intensive systems. We may be able to deal more effectively with the environmental side effects of intensive farming systems by treating them as unwanted externalities and taking direct action to avoid or remove them rather than attempting to change fundamentally the nature of modern farming systems.To cope with the increasingly complexity and inter-connectedness of modern farming systems in the context of globalisation and potential perturbations like climate change, we need a pluralistic approach to policy, which can cope with the high levels of uncertainty in these areas and which allows maximum flexibility of response to changing circumstances. 相似文献
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Market economists are thought to wield tremendous power—not only over financial markets but over governments that stray from the ‘market way’. Still, there is mystery about what economists think, and how they form their judgements. This article reports results from a survey of over 50 financial market economists from leading financial institutions in Australia conducted in December 2003 and January 2004. It provides insight into the opinions of economists who impact on markets and policy, especially through media commentary. The article identifies their economic and social views, comparing them with the Australian public. We then examine how professional views of economists differ from their personal views. Differences in professional and private views—especially over the role of government and labour markets—are an opportunity to ponder how judgements are formed and used. We offer tentative answers to the question: do these professionals—highly paid for their opinions—occasionally self‐censor? 相似文献
20.
German monetary unification is expected to result in a major expansion in autonomous demand from East Germany. In economic terms this is equivalent to a fiscal shock to West Germany broadly similar to that experienced in the US in the early years of Mr. Reagan's Presidency. Led by the Bundes bank, the monetary authorities' response is again likely to be a tightening of policy, leading to several years of high real interest rates. Overall, the combined monetary-fiscal shock should strengthen growth with only moderate increases in inflation. Germany is expected to grow very rapidly in the -per cent range for several years, with only a slight upturn in inflation. Japan, after a pause over the next year, should be able to return to its under lying growth path fairly quickly. However the US situation is more precarious. FUN adjustment from the previous Reagan shock has not yet taken place, leaving the US vulnerably dependent on increasingly scarce imported capital. In the absence of a significant *peace dividend: the result is the necessity of continued tight policy and sluggish growth in the American economy. US growth stays around 2 per cent, but this allows a substantial reduction in the current account deficit. 相似文献