The Fisher hypothesis: examining the Canadian experience

In this study the validity of the Fisher hypothesis is investigated for Canada under both fixed and floating exchange rate regimes. An empirically distinction is drawn between the weak and strong form of the Fisher hypothesis. The Johansen-Juselius (JJ) multivariate cointegration methodology is applied to test the weak form while the Phillips–Hansen fully modified ordinary least squares (FM-OLS) technique is used for the strong form hypothesis. The caninical correlations (JJ) methodology has the smallest bias and dispersion and hence is the best among the alternative testing procedures available. The FM-OLS procedure, on the other hand, allows for an unrestricted cointegration test correcting for both endogeneity in the data and asymptotic bias in the coefficient estimates. The Fisher hypothesis is soundly rejected.     

Effects of price uncertainty on consumer purchase budget and price thresholds

This article examines how uncertainty about prices affects: (1) the budget consumers allocate for purchasing a product and (2) consumer price thresholds (i.e., the prices that are considered too high or a good deal). In an experimental setting, the purchase budget as well as the absolute values of both thresholds for uncertain subjects were higher than those for certain subjects. Moreover, a relatively large decline from the budget was needed before a price was considered a good deal, whereas a relatively small increase from the budget was sufficient for a price to be considered too high. Price uncertainty widened the difference between the upper (i.e., too high) price threshold and the budget, making uncertain subjects more tolerant to prices exceeding the budget than certain subjects. However, price uncertainty did not have a significant effect on the difference between the budget and the lower (i.e., good deal) price threshold.We wish to thank the editor and anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments on an earlier draft. We also thank Professors S. P. Raj and Amiya Basu for their comments and suggestions at various stages of the study.     

Examining the credibility of macroeconomic forecasts: Null of cointegration approach

In this study we examine the accuracy of forecasts of a select group of major macroeconomic variables, representing both the real and the financial sector of the economy. The theoretical foundations are similar to the one used to study exchange rate expectations, i.e. a verification of consistency and rationality in forecast formation. The empirical measure of accuracy is consistency in the expectation formation process, a precursor to rational forecasts. Here we examine the cointegration properties of the actual and forecast series (at multiple horizons) using the modern null of cointegration approach. A very reliable and continuos data set, the ASA-NBER survey is used. We find evidence of short (long) term expectational consistency (inconsistency) i.e. bandwagon effects and a mean reversion tendency in case of real variables, while the forecasts of financial variables are inconsistent across all forecast horizons.     

Openness,Lobbying, and Provision of Infrastructure

Casual empirical evidence suggests that infrastructure provision is higher in economies that are open to world trade. We develop a model of imperfect competition to show that open economies are likely to provide more infrastructure than closed economies. If infrastructure is financed by taxing a producer lobby, the open economy will overprovide while the closed economy will underinvest; an open economy approaches optimal provision when this lobby group is small in size. If financing of infrastructure is done by taxing the whole population, the closed-economy outcome may be preferred relative to that of the open economy.     

Labor Markets and Adjustment in Open Asian Economies: The Republic of Korea and Malaysia

This article deals with the adjustment following external shocksin two open Asian economies: the Republic of Korea and Malaysia.There were important differences in the economic structure ofthe two countries as well as significant differences in theway external events produced "crises" that interrupted theirdynamic economic growth. Detailed analyses of economic cyclesin the two decades preceding 1987–88 show that the behaviorof factor markets, particularly the markets for labor and foreignexchange, helped Korea to adjust quickly to the shocks but inMalaysia actually caused the crisis to deepen. For economies heavily dependent on exports, the unit cost oflabor in dollars is of central importance as an index of thecompetitiveness of exports and hence of their ability to mounta sustained recovery after a difficult period. Accordingly,the heart of the analysis is the determination of the unit costof labor and the factors affecting its change throughout thecycles. Concentration on this critical variable helps to spotlightthe crucial differences in the factor markets of the two economies.     

The employment elasticity in manufacturing: a rejoinder

The trend in the share of wages is one of the factors affectingemployment elasticity over a specified period of time. Thereare alternative ways of dealing with this trend in a decompositionequation. The method suggested in Mazumdar (2003) might be preferredbecause it yields additional information.     

Universal Banking Under Bilateral Information Asymmetry

The Gramm–Leach–Bliley (GLB) Act of 1999 repealed many provisions of the Glass–Steagall Act that curtailed competition between banks and commercial firms. Significantly, however, the GLB Act did not repeal the constraint on banks from owning equity in commercial firms (“universal banking”). Should banks be allowed to hold equity in corporate borrowers? If allowed, would banks optimally choose to do so? Despite its relevance from a policy perspective, there are surprisingly few theoretical analyses of this issue of “universal banking”. We develop a model in which the bank's advisory role as an “inside” shareholder hinges on its equity stake. The optimal capital structure and the bank's and entrepreneur's equity stakes are endogenously determined in a world with potential double-sided moral hazard. In certain scenarios, the bank may prefer not to hold any equity. Our analysis indicates that allowing optimal bank equity participation may foster improved corporate performance. This benefit of universal banking should be considered in policy debates.     

Empirical Analysis of a Dynamic Duopoly Model of Competition

Empirically validating and testing the specification of game theoretic models has received limited attention in the marketing literature. The authors provide an econometric framework for estimating the parameters of response functions when the observed data in the market place are the Nash equilibrium outcomes of an underlying dynamic duopoly game specification. Specifically, the estimation procedure accounts for the joint endogeneity of market shares and marketing efforts of market rivals using a system of simultaneous equations that included the market response function and the Nash equilibrium conditions. A formal statistical test is used to detect model misspecification. The empirical analysis is carried out using data from four product markets: pharmaceutical, soft drink, beer, and detergent. Comparisons are provided with conventional estimation of the response function parameters in which the equilibrium conditions are ignored in the estimation. Managerial implications of the empirical results are discussed.     

GNP forecasts: How credible are they? A sequential test of consistency and rationality

In this study we examine the accuracy in the expectation formation process of a major macroeconomic forecast variable, namely the Gross National Product (GNP). The theoretical foundations are similar to the one used to study exchange rate expectations, i.e. a verification of consistency and rationality in forecast formation. A very reliable and continuos data set, the ASA-NBER survey is used. The Engle-Granger two step cointegration methodology and the Johansen-Juselius canonical correlation's (which has the smallest bias and dispersion) is applied to examine consistency in the gross national product expectation formation process. Our results support (reject) consistency at the short (long) forecast horizon. We then sequentially test for weak and strong form rationality using the Phillips-Hansen fully modified ordinary least squares procedure. This allows for an unrestricted cointegration test correcting for both endogeneity in the data and asymtotic bias in the coefficient estimates. Weak (strong) form rationality is upheld (rejected). This is in line with the literature which rejects orthogonality, but partially supports expectational rationality.