The harder they fall

The past decade may well be remembered as the era of the high-flying, aggressive leader. Corner-office titans like Kenneth Lay, Dennis Kozlowski, and Bernard Ebbers graced the covers of business magazines. They captured the public's fascination with their bold business moves and charismatic sound bites. Then scandal set in, and the stars fell to earth. In this article, social psychologist Roderick M. Kramer asks an important question: Why do so many leaders--not just in business, but also in politics, religion, and the media--display remarkable adeptness and ability while courting power, only to engage in even more remarkable bouts of folly once that power has been secured? Kramer, who has spent most of his career researching how leaders get to the top, says there is something about the process of becoming a leader that changes people in profound ways. The systems through which we select our leaders force executives to sacrifice the attitudes and behaviors that are essential to their survival once they have reached the top. Society has learned to consider risk taking and rule breaking as markers of good leadership. As a result, CEOs and other leaders lack the modesty and prudence needed to cope with the rewards and trappings of power. They come to believe that normal limits don't apply to them and that they are entitled to any spoils they can seize. The leaders who do remain grounded--who get to the top and stay there--exhibit five common psychological and behavioral habits: They simplify their lives, remaining humble and "awfully ordinary." They shine a light on their weaknesses instead of trying to cover them up. They float trial balloons to uncover the truth and prepare for the unexpected. They sweat the small stuff. And they reflect more, not less.     

Attacking the disability and absenteeism epidemic--behavioral health care solutions

To remain competitive in a global economy, employers must implement effective programs to stem escalating disability claims and increased costly absenteeism. This article discusses methods to counter this latest workforce epidemic. The authors discuss employee attitudes, legal considerations and behavioral health care solutions.     

Same place,same knowledge – same people? The geography of non-patent citations in Dutch polymer patents

It has long been argued that geographic co-location supports knowledge spillovers. More recently, this argument has been challenged by showing that knowledge spillovers mainly flow through social networks, which may or may not be localized at various geographic scales. We further scrutinize the conjecture of geographically bounded knowledge spillovers by focusing on knowledge flows between academia and industry. Looking into citations to non-patent literature (NPL) in 2385 Dutch polymer patents, we find that citation lags are shorter on average if Dutch rather than foreign NPLs are cited. However, when excluding individual and organizational self-citations, geographically proximate NPLs no longer diffuse faster than foreign NPLs. This suggests that knowledge is not ‘in the air’ but transferred by mobile individuals and/or direct university–industry collaboration. Our findings moreover suggest an important role of international conferences in the diffusion of recent scientific knowledge.     

主要经济区域中的货币错位和贸易不平衡

本文论及在世界主要经济区城货币错位和贸易不平衡、货币错位产生的原因及其解决的方法，介绍了现行国际货币体系及其缺陷和改革建议。文中主要涉及到美国、欧盟、日本和中国的经济发展水平和相应的货币政策。     

Multi-asset portfolio optimization and out-of-sample performance: an evaluation of Black–Litterman,mean-variance,and naïve diversification approaches

The Black–Litterman model aims to enhance asset allocation decisions by overcoming the problems of mean-variance portfolio optimization. We propose a sample-based version of the Black–Litterman model and implement it on a multi-asset portfolio consisting of global stocks, bonds, and commodity indices, covering the period from January 1993 to December 2011. We test its out-of-sample performance relative to other asset allocation models and find that Black–Litterman optimized portfolios significantly outperform naïve-diversified portfolios (1/N rule and strategic weights), and consistently perform better than mean-variance, Bayes–Stein, and minimum-variance strategies in terms of out-of-sample Sharpe ratios, even after controlling for different levels of risk aversion, investment constraints, and transaction costs. The BL model generates portfolios with lower risk, less extreme asset allocations, and higher diversification across asset classes. Sensitivity analyses indicate that these advantages are due to more stable mixed return estimates that incorporate the reliability of return predictions, smaller estimation errors, and lower turnover.     

Cost-effectiveness of golimumab for the treatment of patients with moderate-to-severe ulcerative colitis in Quebec using a patient level state transition microsimulation

Objective: To conduct cost-effectiveness analyses comparing the addition of golimumab to the standard of care (SoC) for treatment of patients with moderate-to-severe ulcerative colitis (UC) who are refractory to conventional therapies in Quebec (Canada).

Methods: An individual patient state transition microsimulation model was developed to project health outcomes and costs over 10 years, using a payer perspective. The incremental benefit estimates for golimumab were driven by induction response and risk of a flare. Flare risks post-induction were derived for golimumab from the PURSUIT maintenance trial and extension study, while those for SoC were derived from the placebo arms of the Active Ulcerative Colitis Trials (ACT) 1 and 2. Other inputs were derived from multiple sources, including retrospective claims analyses and literature. Costs are reported in 2014 Canadian dollars. A 5% annual discount rate was applied to costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs).

Results: Compared with SoC, golimumab was projected to increase the time spent in mild disease or remission states, decrease flare rates, and increase QALYs. These gains were achieved with higher direct medical costs. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for golimumab vs SoC was $63,487 per QALY.

Limitations: The long-term flare projections for SoC were based on the data available from the ACT 1 and 2 placebo arms, as data were not available from the PURSUIT maintenance or extension trial. Additionally, the study was limited to only SoC and golimumab, due to the availability of individual patient data to analyze.

Conclusion: This economic analysis concluded that treatment with golimumab is likely more cost-effective vs SoC when considering cost-effectiveness acceptability thresholds from $50,000–$100,000 per QALY.     

Preference Heterogeneity in the Structural Estimation of Efficient Pigovian Incentives for Insecticide Spraying to Reduce Malaria

This paper bridges the theoretical and empirical literatures on the role of preference heterogeneity in characterizing externalities related to disease transmission. We use a theoretical structure similar to locational sorting models, which characterize equilibria in terms of marginal individuals who are indifferent between locations. In our case, the ‘locations’ are binary, consisting of whether or not to take a discrete preventative action. Individual heterogeneity arises in this structure due to variation in the costs and disutility associated with prevention. We demonstrate application of this approach in the context of participation in insecticide-based indoor residual spraying programs for malaria control in northern Uganda. We identify the parameters of our theoretical model using a stated preference choice experiment combined with estimates from published epidemiological studies. The model implies that Pigovian subsidies for participation in this context should decrease household malaria risk by 19–25%. Our approach can be applied to other bioeconomic externalities with spillovers from discrete preventative actions, including agricultural pest management and the control of pest infestations and invasive species.     

Kita-Gutscheine: Für eine verbesserte Betreuung und Bildung

Zusammenfassung   Das Angebot an Kinderbetreuung soll in Deutschland in den n?chsten Jahren deutlich ausgebaut werden. In diesem Zusammenhang werden Gutscheine als effizientes Steuerungsinstrument vorgeschlagen. Kritiker befürchten jedoch, dass es damit zu einer sozialen Selektion der Kinder in den Betreuungseinrichtungen komme. Was k?nnen Kita-Gutscheine leisten und wo liegen ihre Grenzen? Laura-Christin Diekmann, 27, Dipl.-Volkswirtin, Dr. Dominik Enste, 41, und Dr. Nicola Hülskamp, 34, sind Referenten des Instituts der deutschen Wirtschaft, K?ln.     

Customer equity management as formative second-order construct

Despite intensive discussions about customer equity, little research addresses how to manage customer equity from a firm's perspective. Recent literature proposes various concepts of customer equity management but does not feature an empirical study that identifies and quantifies activities that aim explicitly to maximize customer equity. In the current study, the authors develop a formative measurement instrument for customer equity management as a second-order construct that indicates how intensively firms orient their customer management toward customer value and equity. The study presents a complete process for conceptualizing and operationalizing a formative second-order construct, including a thorough literature review, intensive qualitative research, and a quantitative study with 92 customer equity managers. On the basis of this process, the authors model customer equity management as a function of three formative dimensions - customer equity analysis, customer equity strategy, and customer equity actions - measured by several formative indicators. The resulting formative operationalization satisfies the criteria for evaluating formative indexes.