The effect of uncertainty on UK investment authorisation: Homogenous vs. heterogeneous estimators

This paper compares pooled and non-pooled models of UK capital investment using the Confederation of British Industrys (CBI) Industrial Trends Survey, focusing on the impact of uncertainty. The uncertainty measure is based on the cross sectional dispersion of optimism about the future business conditions in the industry in which the firm operates. The panel data estimation shows that uncertainty has quantitatively important negative effects on investment. However, if we look at the estimation results at the industry level, we find a great diversity in both estimated elasticities and t-statistics, providing valuable information not available from the pooled model. Finally, we compare the forecast performances of the above models; this analysis confirms that pooled estimators are generally better than non-pooled estimators in terms of out-of-sample forecast performance, but the difference between the two is not very large.     

Investment under Demand Uncertainty,Ex-Ante Pricing,and Oligopoly

This paper considers the capacity choice of duopolists who set price ex-ante under demand uncertainty with risk-neutrality. The duopolists compete for market shares on the basis of availability of supply, rather than by price competition. Collusive pricing coexists with Cournot–Nash capacity choice. A formal model is presented, where the market share of each firm may deviate from the certainty share due to rationing. With shares reflecting different costs, capacity utilisation for the lower cost firm is expected to be substantially lower. The implications for the price-cost margin and capacity formation are also explored.     

Linking Technological,Market & Financial Indicators Of Innovation

This paper describes the results of a feasibility study to develop a national Innovation Scoreboard to measure and track the innovative performance of companies in the UK. It begins with a review of potential technological, market and financial indicators of innovation, and using data in the public domain, develops a trial Innovation Scoreboard based on 40 firms from five different sectors. The preliminary findings suggest that product announcements made in the specialist press may be a viable indicator of innovation at the level of the firm. Specifically, the evidence suggests that product announcements represent a useful measure of innovative output, which combined with expenditure on research and development provide a measure of research efficiency. This measure of research efficiency is shown to be associated with higher market to book values.     

The Influence of Uncertainty on Investment in the UK: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?

While the theory examining the relationship between uncertainty and investment has suggested new research avenues, it has not had strong predictive power. Nevertheless, at the policy level the benefits for investment of a more stable economic climate are being emphasised. These considerations point to the need for empirical work. Accordingly, this paper draws on industry level panel data, obtained by marrying the UK Census of Production with the CBI Industrial Trends Survey, and applies dynamic panel data methods to distinguish between macro and micro sources of uncertainty and to consider the role of financial factors. It is found that both sources of uncertainty exert a considerable negative impact on investment, while financial factors may be important in some industries.     

Persistence of Capacity Shortage and the Role of Adjustment Costs

This paper finds that plant capital constraints on output in UK industry tend to persist for surprisingly long periods, reflecting a slow response of capital investment. The paper examines the conventional view that this response pattern may be explained by cost of adjustment. Using UK time‐series data for a small number of industry groups, it is shown that the observed dynamics of capital constraints (capital shortage) are not fully explained by a quadratic adjustment cost model or by alternative forms of adjustment cost.