海外投资环境评估的类神经网络方法研究

全球化浪潮下，国际投资活动方兴未艾，东道国投资环境评估成为投资者最为关注也是最为棘手的问题，本文在分析以往评估方法的基础上提出了基于类神经网络的海外投资环境评估模型，在给出具体评估程序的同时，着重探讨了倒传讯神经网络的学习机制，发现以其强大的自学习功能在解决投资环境评估等复杂问题时取得了较佳的效果，本研究的目的在于为我国企业向海外扩展提供一个科学，高效的决策模型，提高我国企业海外投资的质量。     

探讨工艺循环水对三聚氰胺产品质量的影响

工艺循环水对三聚氰胺产品浊度超标的影响已不容忽视。在三聚氰胺装置中,本着节能降耗的原则工艺循环水是经过处理后要重新返回系统中再利用的。然而,由于系统中存在的一些问题,使工艺循环水中的一些杂质严重威胁到了三聚氰胺的产品质量,而有些质量隐患又是极难排查和控制的。所以本文针对这一问题详细介绍了工艺循环水是如何对三聚氰胺产品质量造成影响的,并在工艺操作和消除设备隐患方面都给出了有效的方法和建议。     

浅谈事业单位预算管理

本文对事业单位预算管理中存在的主要问题进行了分析,并提出了事业单位加强预算管理的主要措施.     

后股权分置时代我国控制权转移分析

<正>我国第一起控制权转移事件大体可以追溯至1993年的"原野事件",但这起控制权转移带有强烈的政府行政色彩。这与我国当时的股权结构特征和制度背景是分不开的。在我国证券市场中真正通过二级市场收购和兼并     

"三本"院校工程管理专业实践教学研究

工程管理专业是一个实践性要求较高的专业,如何提高实践教学的效果,如何培养真正适合市场需要的专门人才,一直是以应用型为培养目标的院校亟待解决的问题.作为民办"三本"院校,实践教学更应视作发展的生命线.本文针对这一问题,结合"三本"学生特点,对工程管理专业实践教学进行了针对性的研究和思考,提出切实可行的实践教学模式.     

压差法测试成品鞋透气性能的实验研究

从分析成品鞋的透气机理出发,提出用压差法测试成鞋透气性能的测试原理和仪器设计方案,并选取代表性的成鞋样品进行了实验验证,为研究和建立成品鞋透气性检测标准提供理论依据和数据参考。     

我国造船中厚板生产状况分析

近年来世界航运业快速发展．同时造船工业逐步向中国转移,使我国船舶工业发展较快。以民用钢质船舶为例。2001～2009年产量快速由475．76万总吨增长到4,394．30万总吨,年增长率基本在两位数以上。最高为2004年的55．30％,即使在2008年和2009年也分别达到了44．20％和40．11％。2010年一季度,中国民用钢质船舶产量为1404．16万总吨。同比增长高达85．93％．     

Depressed demand for crop insurance contracts,and a rationale based on third generation Prospect Theory

When actuarially fair insurance for a major risk is available then standard economic theory posits that those subject to the risk should insure. In agriculture, it is common for producers to decline contract offers where presubsidy premiums just cover average losses and subsidies are substantial. This paper seeks to shed light on why demand is curtailed. In a mail survey of U.S. corn and soybean producers we solicited Willingness to Pay (WTP) for actuarially fair insurance at different coverage levels. We find demand to be so low that median WTP is no larger than fair premium when adjusted down by current subsidy rates, which pay for one half or more of most premium charges. WTP as a share of the fair rate is especially low when risk of loss is high. There is limited evidence that respondents appreciate the convex relationship between coverage level and expected indemnity payoff. Third generation Prospect Theory is shown to be consistent with observed findings. In particular, a strong distaste for paying premium can be rationalized by loss aversion. Furthermore, when high revenue outcomes are more likely than not, that is, negative skewness, then higher loss aversion, greater decision weight distortions and greater risk aversion will decrease WTP.     

Assessing credit quality from the equity market: can a structural approach forecast credit ratings?

We investigate the empirical performance of default probability prediction based on Merton's (1974) structural credit risk model. More specifically, we study if distance‐to‐default is a sufficient statistic for the equity market information concerning the credit quality of the debt‐issuing firm. We show that a simple reduced form model outperforms the Merton (1974) model for both in‐sample fitting and out‐of‐sample predictability for credit ratings, and that both can be greatly improved by including the firm's equity value as an additional variable. Moreover, the empirical performance of this hybrid model is very similar to that of the simple reduced form model. As a result, we conclude that distant‐to‐default alone does not adequately capture the firm's credit quality information from the equity market. Copyright © 2007 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

“两会”:聚得民意谋新篇

适逢5年一次的换届，2008年山东”两会”格外受到关注。与人们的预期相应，民生问题仍然是会上最热点的话题。但有别于以往的是，人大代表和政协委员们汇聚而来的民声民意，越来越多地被吸纳到决策的过程之中，成为政府施政的有力依据。